Is the "copper rush" cooling off? LME sees largest delivery in nearly four weeks, copper price retreats to $14,000.

Copper prices stabilized after falling to around $14,000 per ton, following a new round of inventory deliveries at exchange-tracked warehouses, indicating that supply tightness has eased somewhat. London Metal Exchange (LME) copper futures fluctuated slightly on Tuesday, after just recording their lowest closing price in four weeks. As of press time, LME copper prices edged up 0.4% to $14,078 per ton. Other metals also moved little, with aluminum up 0.2% and zinc down 0.3%. Singapore iron ore futures held steady at $95.55 per ton. Copper prices have fallen sharply since surging to a record high last week. At that time, traders rushed to redirect supply to the United States ahead of expectations for tariffs on refined copper, causing supply shortages in the rest of the world. It is understood that the Trump administration previously asked the Commerce Secretary to assess the U.S. copper market and recommended a 15% tariff on refined copper starting in January 2027, rising further to 30% in 2028. Driven by this expectation, traders frantically exploited the price gap between COMEX and LME to arbitrage, continuously shipping copper from around the world to the United States. In July alone, more than 200,000 tons of copper arrived in the United States, setting a historical record. But so far, this tariff measure has not yet been implemented. Last week, reports said the Trump administration had not made a final decision on refined copper import tariffs, with officials torn between rising manufacturing costs and encouraging domestic mining. That news directly triggered a selloff that day. On Monday, LME warehouses received their largest copper delivery in nearly four weeks. Three-month copper switched to a premium of $85.75 per ton over cash copper, a market structure known as "contango," which usually indicates ample supply. Regarding the next move in copper prices, the market is watching two key variables. Later on Tuesday, traders will focus on a series of economic data releases from China to gauge demand in the world's largest metal-consuming country. Second, the market is also watching the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting. Currently, the market widely expects the Fed to raise interest rates, with that probability having surged to 89%. This is usually bearish for non-yielding assets such as commodities.