Brokerage Morning Meeting Highlights | This super strong El Nio is the core variable supplied by Shenzhen Agricultural Power Group globally.

Yesterday, the three major A-share indices had mixed performances, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing stronger trends, while the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index opened high but closed lower. The total transaction volume on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges reached 1.86 trillion yuan, down 104.7 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Sector-wise, the coal sector experienced a fluctuating rise, shipping concepts saw unusual rallies, Fujian Highton Development had three consecutive daily limit-ups in five days, cultivated diamond concepts strengthened during the trading session, and the defense industry performed actively. By the end of the trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index was up 0.28%, the Shenzhen Component Index was up 0.15%, and the ChiNext Index was down 0.14%. China Securities Co., Ltd. believes that for gold to further enter a second-round trend-driven rise in valuation recovery, we still need to wait for confirmation of substantial easing. Galaxy Securities stated that this extremely strong El Nio is a core variable influencing the supply of the global Shenzhen Agricultural Power Group. Huatai suggested paying attention to foundational models, computing power, and AI security-related areas. China Securities Co., Ltd.: For gold to further enter a second-round trend-driven rise in valuation recovery, substantial easing confirmation is still needed. China Securities Co., Ltd. stated that as the U.S. fiscal issues transform from long-term expectations into short-term market constraints, gold may have already completed the first round of valuation recovery from "over-tight pricing" to a relatively balanced direction of fiscal and monetary policy. Since July, gold has completed the first-round recovery from around $4,000 to $4,600 per ounce. The essence is not that the easing policies have been fulfilled, but that the market has shifted from a pricing model based solely on "high interest rates, strong U.S. dollar, and ongoing tightening" to one that includes the possibility of economic cooling, fiscal credit risks, and marginal shifts in monetary policy. Following the completion of the first round of valuation recovery, fiscal credit and central bank gold purchases can still elevate the central tendency of gold positioning and limit downside potential, but are unlikely to consistently dictate the slope of short-term rises. For gold to advance to a second round of trend-driven increases in valuation, confirmation of substantial easing is still necessary. Galaxy Securities: This extremely strong El Nio is a core variable influencing the supply of the global Shenzhen Agricultural Power Group. On September 3, 2026, the World Meteorological Organization confirmed that the equatorial central Pacific El Nio event has been firmly established and is expected to intensify to "super-strong level" in the coming months, with extreme weather risks extending into 2027. Mainstream institutions have highly consistent forecasts: NOAA predicts a greater than 90% probability of a super strong El Nio (Nio 3.4 peak +2.0C) occurring in autumn and winter, with a 97% probability that the event will last until early spring 2027; both the Japan Meteorological Agency and China's National Climate Center give a near 100% likelihood of persistence; the Australian Bureau of Meteorology expects sea surface temperature peaks to break records since 1950, with the event potentially continuing until autumn 2027. Peaks are expected around the end of 2026. Historically, super strong events with peaks +2.0C have only occurred three times: 198283, 199798, and 201516, and this time requires close attention to their impact on the supply of the global Shenzhen Agricultural Power Group. In terms of specific varieties: High-temperature drought in palm oil-producing regions is gradually intensifying, Kalimantan and East Malaysia continue to be relatively dry, and Gapki has lowered Indonesia's production forecast for this year to 58.5 million tons, projecting a further decline of 1.7 million tons next year; short-term high inventory and weak realities continue to pressure the market, but expectations of production cuts and Indonesia's B50 policy support future prices, suggesting bullish strategies with buy positions on dips in the medium term. For soybeans, the impact of El Nio on U.S. soybeans is limited, and the expectations for U.S. soybean yields remain high; South American impacts are neutral, with potential production cuts in Northern Brazil, improvements in yields in the South, and more rainfall in Argentina and Paraguay being generally favorable, with actual impacts more dependent on the timing of rain. In the cotton sector, drought during the flowering period in India is the main reason for the global supply contraction in the 2026/27 fiscal year, while Australia faces a 1520% risk of production decline, and the U.S. has uncertainties in both directions, whereas Brazil remains relatively stable, providing a hedging effect. Mainstream institutions expect global cotton production to decline by 3.2%4% year on year, suggesting upward momentum for cotton prices in the medium to long term. Overall, this super strong El Nio is a core variable influencing the supply of the global Shenzhen Agricultural Power Group in 2026/27; it is recommended to continuously monitor weather developments across producing regions and policy dynamics for each variety. Huatai: It is recommended to pay attention to foundational models, computing power, and AI security-related areas. Following the release of GPT-6 Astra, the market is highly focused on its capabilities in complex tasks and long-range Agent functions, and changes at the underlying architecture level have become a key topic of discussion. According to a report by The Information on September 1, OpenAI may be using Loop Transformer technology; Z.AI has also listed effective depth as a key scaling direction and has completed relevant preliminary experiments. Huatai believes that the Loop Transformer has the potential to expand model scaling pathways, enhance the computational intensity per token, and drive demand for computing power; at the same time, the Loop Transformer increases internal implicit computations, further emphasizing the importance of model safety and observability. It is recommended to pay attention to foundational models, computing power, and AI security-related areas. This article is reproduced from "Caixin Securities," GMTEight edited by Xu Wenqiang.