Hong Kong Stock Concept Tracking | Copper Production May Decline in 2026, Market Optimistic about Improvement in Copper Sector Stock Performance (Including Concept Stocks)

In the past year, copper prices have repeatedly reached new highs, primarily driven by trade flows related to tariffs. Now, investors are betting that the near stagnation of copper production will further push prices higher. A series of disappointing production data this year is shaking expectations for at least a slight increase in global copper supply. Data from the International Copper Study Group shows that global copper mine production fell by 1.1% in the first half of the year, with both Codelco and Freeport-McMoRan recording double-digit declines. Morgan Stanley initially expected copper mine supply to grow this year but now predicts production will remain roughly flat or decline slightly, which may mean that global copper mine production could experience its first annual decline since 2017. JPMorgan released a research report stating that the Democratic Republic of the Congo has imposed a ban on copper concentrate and cobalt concentrate exports. Although MMG (01208), Zijin Mining Group (02899), and CMOC Group Limited (03993) have assets in the DRC that account for approximately 14%, 25%, and 100% of their projected copper production in 2026, respectively, they believe that the actual impact of the policy is limited because the ban targets copper concentrate exports, while the main assets of these enterprises in the DRC have integrated smelting capacities, producing primarily anode copper, crude copper, and cathode copper rather than concentrates. JPMorgan also pointed out that, as the DRC's copper concentrate exports had already been limited by permits, they believe the short-term incremental impact on global copper supply will be minimal. If copper prices remain elevated, the extraordinary profits tax on copper in the DRC will have a more significant direct impact on mining companies' profitability. Based on a spot copper price of $14,168 per ton, it is estimated that the extraordinary profits tax will impact the after-tax net profit of related enterprises by approximately 1 billion yuan. The firm maintains a positive view on copper mining stocks, believing that potential U.S. tariffs are a stronger driver of stock prices. Industrial continues to maintain the judgment that the midpoint of copper prices will move upward in the second half of 2026. With frequent disruptions in global mine supply and the coordinated depletion of domestic and international inventories, actual demand is improving far beyond market expectations. The U.S. copper tariff will exacerbate the structural contradictions in global inventories, while negotiations between the U.S. and Iran and expectations of interest rate hikes will bring about improvements in macro liquidity, making it easier for copper prices to rise and harder for them to fall. Copper-related stocks include: MMG (01208), CHINFMINING (01258), Zijin Mining Group (02899), JIANGXI COPPER (00358), CMOC Group Limited (03993), and others.