Overnight US stocks | The probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike has plummeted, with all three major indexes rising over 1%. Bitcoin has surpassed the $80,000 mark.

On Thursday, the three major indices surged significantly, all rising more than 1%. Federal Reserve Governor Waller signaled a dovish policy stance. He stated that although U.S. inflation remains significantly above the Fed's 2% target, recent data indicates that the disinflation process is re-emerging. If the data released in the next two weeks confirms that this trend is continuing, he is inclined to support the Fed maintaining interest rates at their current level during the September meeting. In addition, U.S. Vice President Vance expressed his belief that the Fed should lower interest rates. He mentioned that based on inflation data, it is reasonable to think that a rate cut by the Fed is "appropriate and responsible." Vance indicated that current data supports the Fed in taking action to lower interest rates. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a rate hike by the Fed during the meeting on September 15-16 has sharply decreased from about 63% the previous day to approximately 48%. The market will closely watch the U.S. non-farm payroll report set to be released on Friday for more clues regarding the Fed's future monetary policy path. In U.S. stocks, by the end of trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 624.04 points, or 1.18%, to close at 53,685.99 points; the S&P 500 increased by 81.01 points, or 1.06%, to finish at 7,747.61 points; and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 366.23 points, or 1.40%, ending at 26,584.06 points. Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) rose by 5.4%, NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US) saw an increase of 1.8%, SpaceX (SPCX.US) rose by 6.4%, while Trip.com Group Ltd. Sponsored ADR (TCOM.US) dropped by 5%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 0.83%. In European stocks, Germany's DAX 30 index gained 153.44 points, or 0.59%, to close at 25,996.78 points; the UK's FTSE 100 index rose by 79.44 points, or 0.74%, to finish at 10,835.89 points; France's CAC 40 index increased by 5.77 points, or 0.07%, to close at 8,286.40 points; the Europe Stoxx 50 index rose by 17.65 points, or 0.28%, to finish at 6,379.80 points; Spain's IBEX 35 index gained 218.77 points, or 1.11%, closing at 19,997.77 points; and Italy's FTSE MIB index increased by 462.40 points, or 0.89%, to finish at 52,254.50 points. In Asian markets, the Nikkei 225 index fell by 0.17%, while the Korean Composite Index rose by 0.26%. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the dollar against six major currencies, fell by 0.69%, closing at 98.910. As of the New York foreign exchange market closing, 1 euro was traded at 1.1635 dollars, up from the previous trading day's 1.1586 dollars; 1 pound exchanged for 1.3539 dollars, up from 1.3487 dollars the previous day. 1 dollar was exchanged for 155.50 yen, down from 158.94 yen the previous day; 1 dollar equaled 0.8068 Swiss francs, down from 0.8133 Swiss francs; 1 dollar was traded at 1.3788 Canadian dollars, down from 1.3841 Canadian dollars; and 1 dollar exchanged for 9.5365 Swedish kronor, down from 9.6250 kronor. In cryptocurrency, Bitcoin rose over 5%, quoted at 81,457 dollars; Ethereum also rose over 5%, priced at 2,507 dollars. In crude oil, light crude oil futures for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by 28 cents, closing at 91.30 dollars per barrel, an increase of 0.32%; while Brent crude oil futures for November delivery fell by 11 cents to 95.52 dollars per barrel, a drop of 0.12%. In precious metals, spot gold was priced at 4,473.45 dollars per ounce; and spot silver was at 66.968 dollars per ounce. In macro news: The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. rose slightly last week, indicating stability in the labor market. The U.S. Labor Department reported on Thursday that for the week ending August 29, the seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment benefits increased by 2,000 to 206,000, slightly above economists' earlier estimate of 205,000. Year-to-date, initial claims have remained at a relatively low level between 189,000 and 230,000, consistent with what economists describe as a "low recruitment, low layoff" labor market condition. Despite strong domestic demand, employers are still reluctant to significantly increase staffing levels amid aggressive trade and immigration policies. A report released on Thursday by Challenger showed that companies announced recruitment plans in the first eight months of this year, rising by 37% compared to the same period in 2025. However, the company noted that these positions do not seem to be filled quickly. The U.S. trade deficit widened to its highest level since early 2025 in July. Driven by a surge in imports of computers and other technological equipment, the trade deficit in July significantly expanded to the highest level since early 2025. Data released by the U.S. Commerce Department on Thursday revealed that the U.S. goods and services trade deficit increased by 24.4% from the previous month to 88.6 billion dollars, with the median estimate from economists standing at 90.2 billion dollars. Imports rose by 2.8%, while exports fell by 2.1%. The report indicated a substantial 11.4% increase in the import of capital goods (including computers and peripherals, semiconductors, and telecommunications equipment but excluding automobiles), marking the largest increase since 1993. The rapid growth in technology imports reflects an investment boom in the field of artificial intelligence, which is a key DRIVER of U.S. economic growth. Meanwhile, in recent months, the trade deficit has fluctuated as global demand for U.S. oil products has increased due to the Iranian conflict, while U.S. companies have been striving to mitigate the impact of supply chain disruptions. Federal Reserve Governor Waller: Whether to raise rates in September will largely depend on August CPI. Governor Waller stated that his next rate decision will largely depend on the inflation data for August, which will be announced next week, and noted that even a small uptick in inflation data could prompt him to support a rate hike at the upcoming policy meeting. He mentioned, If we continue to make progress toward the 2% target, then I would be willing to support keeping the policy rate at the current level. But if the inflation data comes in higher than expected, I would consider a rate hike. Waller characterized current policy as slightly dampening economic growth and added, A faster inflation increase may not prompt me to support tightening policy. If evidence in August indicates a reversal in progress toward the 2% target, then a slight adjustment to our policy stance would help ensure inflation returns. He also noted, Although inflation rates are still far above the FOMC's 2% target, recent data shows that we are finally seeing some signs of cooling inflation. U.S. PMI data indicates a rebound in economic growth for the third quarter. Data released today reveals that the U.S. S&P Global, Inc. August services PMI rose from 54.6 to 56.5, lower than the initial value of 56.8 but still showing significant growth, marking the highest level since December 2024. While service sector activity grew robustly, manufacturing continued to expand, albeit at a slower pace. According to survey data, the current performance of the U.S. economy is leading compared to other global economies. The U.S. Institute for Supply Management (ISM) services PMI for August increased from 54.1 to 55.4, surpassing the expected 54.1, reaching the highest level since February 2026. Usamah Bhatti, an economist at S&P Global, Inc. Market Intelligence, stated, In August, the growth of overall business activity in the U.S. private sector accelerated, indicating a clear shift in the U.S. economy's pace. However, supply delays remain at high levels, particularly evident for manufacturers, and overall price pressures are still above historical averages. Media: Oman rejects Iran's proposal for charging fees in the Strait of Hormuz. Reports indicate that Oman has quietly rejected Iran's proposal to impose service fees on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Regional officials familiar with the matter stated that Oman refused to agree to charges for environmental and security services, even on a voluntary basis, countering previous statements from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard about reaching an agreement. A U.S. official noted that the terms of the income-sharing agreement proposed by Iran had not yet been finalized even on Tehran's side. Previously, after a meeting between Iranian Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian and Omani Foreign Minister Busaidi in Tehran, a spokesperson for the Iranian Revolutionary Guard indicated that the two countries had reached an agreement on the delineation of the waters of the Strait of Hormuz and income distribution. U.S. copper imports hit record high in July. Official data released by the U.S. Commerce Department on Thursday showed that in July, U.S. imports of refined copper and copper alloys reached 225,094 tons, a record high driven by traders bringing in significant amounts of copper ahead of possible U.S. tariffs. According to trade data monitoring agency Trade Data Monitor, the import figure released by the U.S. Commerce Department represented the highest monthly total since 1990, marking a 78% increase month-over-month and an 8% increase year-over-year. Canadas trade surplus narrowed significantly to 769 million Canadian dollars in July. Statistics Canada reported on Thursday that the trade surplus in July sharply narrowed to 769 million Canadian dollars, driven by declines in gold and energy exports, particularly to the U.S. Economists had previously predicted a trade surplus of 3.18 billion Canadian dollars; total exports fell by 2.3% in July while imports rose by 2.2%, leading to a significant narrowing of the trade surplus from the revised figure of 4.2 billion Canadian dollars in June. Exports of gold, silver, platinum, and their alloys fell by 13.1% as foreign buyers reduced their purchases of gold held by Canada, along with a decline in gold shipments to the U.S. Statistics Canada noted that falling prices also contributed to a drop in gold exports. Since peaking in February, the value of exports in the precious metals category has decreased by 9%. In individual stock news: Volkswagen launches sweeping cost-cutting transformation plans, intending to cut 50,000 jobs and close four factories. Volkswagen announced that the company will initiate a comprehensive reform plan aimed at reducing 50,000 jobs and potentially closing some factories. This decision was made after prolonged negotiations between management, unions, and the government of Lower Saxony in Germany. The Volkswagen Group stated on Thursday that this restructuring will be the "most far-reaching transformation plan" in the company's history. Earlier this year, Volkswagen CEO Oliver Blume proposed a plan that could cut up to 100,000 jobs and close as many as four factories. Volkswagen noted that its supervisory board has confirmed an excess capacity of approximately 500,000 vehicles in Europe. The company pointed out that the factories in Emden, Zwickau, Hannover, and Neckarsulm currently do not have competitive follow-up production projects scheduled for the next 5 to 8 years and stated that it is simultaneously exploring other uses for these plants. Volkswagen also reported that the plan is expected to eliminate approximately 50,000 jobs across the group, including management positions. Zuckerberg expresses opposition to establishing a national AI regulatory agency to Trump. Reports indicate that Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg opposed the proposal to establish a national AI regulatory agency during a phone call with President Trump last month. Sources familiar with the matter revealed that Trump reached out to Zuckerberg during the week of August 17 for discussions on the White House's consideration of a "FINRA-style" AI regulatory agency. This proposal was put forward by Alphabet Inc. Class C DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis, suggesting the establishment of an independent agency to review and risk-test advanced AI models. Zuckerberg argued that the agency should reflect the more lenient AI regulatory philosophy of the Trump administration but did not ask Trump to change his position. The White House stated that the Trump administration aims to balance promoting AI innovation while ensuring safety. The proposal is still under consideration, and the White House is also evaluating another industry-led self-regulatory model. Previously, Zuckerberg expressed that overly strict regulation could slow the pace of AI model releases and impact the U.S.'s competitiveness in the AI field. OpenAI releases the GPT-6 Astra model, claiming it may be close to achieving AGI. OpenAI began releasing its new flagship model, GPT-6 Astra, on Thursday and indicated it has made significant advances in commercial tasks such as financial modeling and engineering design. Initially, the model is open only to select organizations, including those participating in OpenAI Daybreak Access cybersecurity initiatives, and will subsequently be available for ChatGPT Plus, Pro, Business, and Enterprise users, as well as those using it through API and Amazon.com cloud services. OpenAI stated that GPT-6 Astra has significantly improved in areas such as computer operations, software programming, and professional work, achieving top scores in the FrontierMath Tier 1 math test, ARC-AGI 3 reasoning tests, and ExploitBench cybersecurity tests. OpenAI co-founder and president Greg Brockman noted that there has been ambiguity regarding the timeline for achieving General Artificial Intelligence (AGI), but "looking back in a few years," this milestone "could be around this time, around this model." GPT-6 Astra is priced at 10 dollars per million input tokens and 50 dollars per output tokens, 2.5 times the price of the previous flagship model, GPT-5.6 Sol. OpenAI indicated that the future AI industry may shift to charging by task rather than by tokens. Brockman stated at the release event, "Welcome to the AGI era." In major ratings: Oppenheimer: Raising Snowflake (SNOW.US) target price from 400 dollars to 475 dollars. Melius Research: Increasing Broadcom Inc. (AVGO.US) target price from 600 dollars to 610 dollars.