Zhongtai: The trump card of the U.S. debt issue has already been seen through by investors around the world.

Zhongtai released a research report stating that from the joint intervention in the yen by the US and Japan on July 31st, to the US Treasury's announcement on August 19th to expand the scale of US debt repurchases, just one day later, interest rates reached new highs again. The effectiveness of the Fed's market rescue is gradually diminishing, with the core reason being that the underlying issues of US debt have already been seen through by global investors. Key points from Zhongtai are as follows: When the underlying issues of US debt are exposed to global investors. On July 31st, the US and Japan jointly intervened in the yen, and about a week later, the yen retraced its gains. Less than three weeks later, the US intervened in the financial market again. On August 19th, after the yield on 30-year US Treasuries rose to 5.34%, a new high since 2007, the US Treasury announced the expansion of the US debt repurchase scale. After the announcement, the 30-year yield briefly fell but rose again to around 5.24% the next day, and the 10-year yield also returned to 4.70%. The Fed's rescue measures were intended to alleviate concerns about demand for long-term bonds, but in the current climate where the issues surrounding US debt are quite severe, the market is likely to perceive an increase in credit risk for US debt, and US fiscal discipline may be lost. Moreover, as long as the fiscal deficit persists, after repurchasing part of the bonds, the Treasury will still need to meet financing demands by issuing new debt, which essentially adjusts the composition and duration of debt without reducing it. In the short term, as the Fed's rescue measures become exhausted, in order to maintain the credibility of the dollar, Wallers statements at next weeks Jackson Hole central banking conference may lean hawkish. However, in the long term, as the underlying issues of US debt are fully recognized by global investors, gold is expected to lead the prices of non-ferrous metals in a sustained upward breakthrough. The institution recommends that investors actively pay attention to opportunities in the precious metals sector, as well as in the industrial metals sector. Gold: Gold prices stabilize and rebound, with stock prices showing greater elasticity. The far below expected non-farm employment data provided space for Fed Chair Waller to express easing statements. After he indicated that the inflation risks in the US had decreased at the European Central Bank's central banking forum, the market quickly lowered its bets on the Fed's imminent rate hikes, and the rebound in gold prices continues to validate the institution's judgment that gold prices may stabilize and rise in the near future. Regarding gold investment, on one hand, the institution has always emphasized the investment value in commodities; on the other hand, the valuations of mining gold companies have significantly declined to low levels compared to early this year after undergoing a deep correction in the equity sector during the first half. This provides a high-risk-to-reward ratio. In addition to the recovery of valuations, there is hope to further enjoy the price elasticity brought by the upward movement of gold prices. Simultaneously, the process of rising gold prices itself continues to enhance the probability of investment success in gold stocks. Investors are encouraged to actively look for investment opportunities in mining gold enterprises. Copper: US "copper grabbing" resumes, and global copper supply and demand are expected to maintain a tight pattern in the medium term. The US Department of Commerce had originally planned to submit its latest copper market assessment report by June 30, advising on whether the US should impose tariffs on refined copper. The market expects that the US might decide to gradually impose a 15% tariff on refined copper starting in 2027, increasing it to 30% in 2028. Since May of this year, this has resulted in the price difference between COMEX and LME copper continuously widening, with the former reaching about $400/ton higher at one point, hitting a peak difference of $500. On May 22 alone, over 50,000 tons of copper were withdrawn from LME warehouses and shipped to the US, marking the largest centralized delivery since 2013. In the backdrop of the ongoing divergence in US and global copper inventories, the institution believes that global copper supply and demand are expected to maintain a tight pattern in the medium term and recommends continuing to pay attention to investment opportunities in copper mining companies. Aluminum: Stock depletion confirms supply-demand dynamics, and high dividends enhance defensive yield. Following the resurgence of conflicts between the US and Iran, the uncertainties around the Strait of Hormuz navigation are raised, as is the uncertainty regarding the Middle East region's electrolytic aluminum supply, which accounts for 9% of global supply. For the global electrolytic aluminum industry, the period of expanded overseas supply gaps may be further extended, and the industrys supply-demand dynamics may remain tight in the medium term. The reduction in overseas aluminum supply has directly translated into a further increase in domestic aluminum exports in May and a continuous depletion of electrolytic aluminum social stocks to 1.007 million tons in July, traditionally a low-demand season. On the other hand, the rising crude oil prices indicate that overseas energy prices are gradually stabilizing at low levels. As a physical carrier of electricity, the price bottom for electrolytic aluminum is also expected to be gradually confirmed. Major electrolytic aluminum enterprises that have already completed "de-leveraging" since the beginning of this year currently maintain high dividend yields. For institutional investors who must stay invested, the institution recommends actively positioning in the electrolytic aluminum sector for defensive purposes. Risk Warning: Slowing macroeconomic growth; Tariff impacts on demand and industry chain stability; Raw material price volatility; Changes in US-China relations; Third-party data distortion; Delays in data updates.