Overnight US stocks | The U.S. and Iran have reached a consensus on a ceasefire, and the three major indices closed higher. NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US) rose more than 2%.

On Monday, all three major indices closed higher. After the U.S. stock market closed, military and security sources from Pakistan and Iran revealed to the media that the U.S. and Iran have reached a consensus on the terms of a ceasefire agreement, which includes freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. The sources stated, "Consensus has been reached on the ceasefire agreement, which includes the freedom of navigation clause in the Strait of Hormuz." The sources indicated that both parties expect to announce related news in the coming days. According to sources, negotiations and a round of technical meetings will commence based on the Islamabad memorandum. U.S. StocksAt the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 160.07 points, an increase of 0.30%, to 53,577.23 points; the S&P 500 index climbed 24.36 points, up 0.32%, to 7,677.22 points; the Nasdaq Composite Index increased by 171.11 points, a rise of 0.66%, to 26,151.30 points. SK Hynix (SKHY.US) and Micron Technology, Inc. (MU.US) rose more than 2%, NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US) gained 2.1%, and AMD (AMD.US) jumped nearly 5%. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index closed up 1.1%, with Alibaba Group Holding Limited Sponsored ADR (BABA.US) increasing by 0.8%. European StocksThe German DAX30 index rose by 155.76 points, an increase of 0.60%, to 26,274.75 points; the UK FTSE 100 index increased by 33.60 points, up 0.31%, to 10,887.92 points; the French CAC40 index fell 13.81 points, down 0.16%, to 8,439.20 points; the Euro Stoxx 50 index rose by 10.77 points, an increase of 0.17%, to 6,458.75 points; the Spanish IBEX35 index dropped by 33.01 points, down 0.16%, to 20,065.59 points; the Italian FTSE MIB index rose by 209.82 points, an increase of 0.40%, to 52,752.00 points. Asian Stock MarketsThe Nikkei 225 index rose by 0.5%, while the South Korean KOSPI index increased by 0.68%. U.S. Dollar IndexThe dollar index, which measures the dollar against six major currencies, fell by 0.09% that day, closing at 98.915. As of the close of the New York foreign exchange market, 1 euro exchanged for 1.1674 U.S. dollars, higher than the previous trading day's 1.1663 dollars; 1 pound exchanged for 1.3646 U.S. dollars, up from 1.3631 dollars the previous day. 1 dollar exchanged for 159.22 Japanese yen, up from 159.19 yen the previous day; 1 dollar exchanged for 0.8020 Swiss francs, down from 0.8026 Swiss francs the previous day; 1 dollar exchanged for 1.3830 Canadian dollars, down from 1.3850 Canadian dollars the previous day; 1 dollar exchanged for 9.4659 Swedish kronor, down from 9.4973 kronor the previous day. CryptocurrencyBitcoin rose by 0.13%, reporting at 78,840 U.S. dollars; Ethereum fell over 1%, at 2,449.16 U.S. dollars. Crude OilLight crude oil futures for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by 2.65 U.S. dollars, closing at 82.36 U.S. dollars per barrel, a decrease of 3.12%; October delivery futures for London Brent crude oil fell by 3.59 U.S. dollars, closing at 88.58 U.S. dollars per barrel, a decline of 3.89%. Precious MetalsSpot gold reported at 4,658.71 U.S. dollars; spot silver reported at 68.64 U.S. dollars. Macroeconomic News IMF President warns of rising fiscal risks and calls on countries to control debt deficits. IMF President Kristalina Georgieva urged governments to address rising fiscal risks, stating, "All countries need to tackle their fiscal issues and develop and announce credible plans to ensure that debt and deficits are on a sustainable track. She also called on central banks to be "highly focused on the responsibilities of price stability." Georgieva noted that the global economy is under pressure from high inflation and trade tensions, but growth from AI investments partly offsets the impact. However, rising bond yields and stagnant inflation indicate that the economic outlook remains highly uncertain. She stated that the energy shock triggered by the Iranian conflict has not ended, and the global economy faces a tug-of-war between negative supply shocks from the Middle East and positive demand shocks from AI. She also warned that energy supply, El Nio weather, and the impact of AI on financial stability remain major risks. Barclays warns that the expansion of AI infrastructure could expose related transactions to political risks. Barclays' strategy team noted that the rapid expansion of AI infrastructure is eliciting backlash from voters across the U.S. political spectrum, potentially exposing currently hot AI transactions to political risks. Barclays stated, The construction of data centers is transforming AI from an abstract tech story into a concrete cost-of-living issue. Even voters with limited exposure to AI will be affected by rising electricity costs, water resource pressures, and the construction of local industrial facilities. Evercore ISI and BCA Research also warned that the surge in energy-intensive data center construction is becoming a sensitive issue ahead of the midterm elections, with voters increasingly dissatisfied with rising electricity costs. Barclays believes that regardless of the midterm election outcomes, AI transactions lack new upward catalysts and warns investors against assuming that "the rapid growth of AI applications can coexist with a loose political environment in the long term." The bank's AI data center index includes over 40 companies, including Super Micro Computer, Inc., Arista Networks, and Microsoft Corporation, with related stocks potentially facing policy pressure. Federal Reserve's Collins: Currently supports holding steady, but may raise rates soon if inflation does not improve. Federal Reserve member Collins expressed her support for keeping rates unchanged for now, but this stance depends on seeing more evidence of inflation decreasing and gradually aligning with the Fed's 2% target. Collins stated, "To maintain the current target interest rate range, we need to continue seeing evidence that inflation is indeed falling. If evidence of sustained inflation decline does not appear, I believe we should tighten monetary policy as soon as possible." She noted that recent inflation data shows moderate underlying price pressures, which is somewhat encouraging, but added that monthly data can be volatile. Whether recent improvements can be sustained remains to be seen. Collins stated that tight rates combined with rising long-term yields should alleviate some inflationary pressures from strong consumer and business spending. She added that the impact of previously imposed tariffs is expected to have largely dissipated, and the effects of rising oil prices on inflation should begin to weaken. South Korea's DRAM export prices surged 401% year-on-year in August. Reports indicate that South Korea's DRAM export prices continue to skyrocket, driven by AI-driven HBM production squeezing regular memory supply. Data showed that from August 1 to 20, the unit price of South Korea's DRAM exports reached $92,183 per kilogram, a 401% increase year-on-year and about 12.5 times higher than the low point in January 2023. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. predicts that the DRAM supply gap will widen from 5.0% this year to 5.9% next year, asserting that HBM needed for AI servers and high-capacity server DRAM is absorbing limited production capacity, leading to further tightening of regular DRAM supply. TrendForce estimates that by the end of next year, the wafer input for HBM production by Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron will account for 30% of total DRAM wafer input, while HBM only accounts for about 13% of actual DRAM bit supply. Memory manufacturers warn that the DRAM and NAND supply tightening driven by AI demand may persist until after 2027. SK Hynix stated that from the supply side, 2027 may become "the most severe shortage year in memory industry history." Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. predicts that the supply shortage may continue until 2028. U.S. consumer confidence drops to the lowest level of the year, with gasoline prices and living costs continuing to pressure households. U.S. consumer confidence declined in August, reaching the lowest level since the beginning of the year, due to worsening perceptions of the business environment and labor market outlook. The Conference Board reported on Tuesday that its consumer confidence index fell by 0.8 points to 89.4, with the previous months data revised down. The median forecast among economists was 90.2. The report indicated that rising gasoline prices, overall cost-of-living pressures, and a slowdown in hiring are continuing to strain American households. The survey was conducted from August 3 to 16. During this period, with the U.S.-Iran conflict escalating and pushing oil prices higher, the average gasoline price at U.S. gas stations hovered above $4 per gallon. The Conference Boards survey showed that perceptions of the current job market improved in August. The proportion of consumers stating that job opportunities are "plentiful" increased, while the proportion stating that jobs are "hard to find" decreased. The difference between the two is at its largest since the beginning of this year. However, respondents' outlook on employment and income prospects over the next six months is more pessimistic. Individual Stock News NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US) Earnings Preview: Investors are looking for not just better than expected but also a growth path. Franklin Templeton portfolio manager Sara Alaji stated that NVIDIA Corporation investors need more than just "better than expected" earnings; they require "concrete details" on how the company deploys capital and maintains spending plans, as well as its future roadmap. She indicated that NVIDIA Corporation's expected P/E ratio over the next 12 months is about 21 times, as the market has already priced in expectations of slowing growth, noting, Growth is about to slow down, and the market is looking towards next year. Alaji emphasized that NVIDIA Corporation needs to demonstrate earnings growth to prove that the company has free cash flow available for investment and stock buybacks. She pointed out that NVIDIA Corporation's approximately 75% gross margin is "very unusual" for a hardware company and will be under close scrutiny against a background of rising input costs. NVIDIA Corporation is raising prices to offset higher memory costs, with previous reports indicating that server prices based on the Vera Rubin and Grace Blackwell architectures will increase by over 15% by early 2027. SpaceX (SPCX.US) plans to build a $100 billion Starship launch base in Louisiana. SpaceX plans to construct a $100 billion Starship launch base on the southern coast of Louisiana, adding a third Starship launch site. The base, located on Pelican Island, will cover approximately 125,000 acres and is planned to include five launch complexes, ten launch pads, as well as facilities for propellant production, power generation, vehicle processing, and employee housing. This base will assist SpaceX in increasing the frequency of Starship launches and support plans to construct up to 1 million data center satellites in the future. The Starship will also be used for launching upgraded Starlink satellites, with orbital data center missions scheduled as early as 2027 and NASA astronauts projected to land on the moon as early as 2028. Anthropic expects a potential market size exceeding $30 trillion, surpassing SpaceX's IPO expectations. Reports state that Anthropic is expected to inform investors in its IPO filing that the company's potential revenue opportunities exceed $30 trillion, surpassing SpaceX's earlier estimate of $28.5 trillion. Anthropic presents an "overall addressable market" (TAM) to showcase growth potential brought by AI, assessing the total scale of work that AI models can accomplish in the future. SpaceX previously referred to its TAM as the largest actionable market in human history, with $26.5 trillion stemming from AI opportunities. Anthropic's second-quarter revenue has exceeded $11.6 billion, doubling from before. The companys current IPO could raise as much as $100 billion, with a targeted valuation of around $2 trillion, higher than SpaceX's valuation of $1.77 trillion at the time of its IPO. Related plans are still under discussion, with a possible launch in September or October. OpenAI: Self-developed Jalapeno chip outperforms NVIDIA Corporation's GB300 in testing. OpenAI reported that its new Jalapeno chip demonstrated superior performance over NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US)s current product line during testing, highlighting the company's progress in developing AI processors. Richard Ho, head of OpenAI's chip business, noted that during testing, the Jalapeno processor led in two areas: the AI workload it can handle per unit of power, and the speed of response. This test compared the chip to NVIDIA Corporation's GB300, which was the leading product in the public benchmark testing system used in this evaluation. OpenAI collaborated with Broadcom Inc. (AVGO.US) in developing Jalapeno, with Broadcom producing custom chips for a range of clients. The two companies announced their partnership last year and emphasized the chip's rapid development in June of this year, stating it was completed in record time.