Hong Kong Stock Concept Tracking | Gold prices surge! Strategic allocation demand supports gold price upward movement, bringing a configuration window for the sector (with related stocks attached).

On Wednesday local time, the U.S. Department of the Treasury announced a significant expansion of the scale of government debt repurchase operations. Following this news, U.S. Treasury yields plunged sharply, halting the "three-day decline" in U.S. stocks temporarily, while metals such as gold and silver experienced a collective surge. Meanwhile, the total amount of U.S. federal government debt has surpassed $40 trillion, and geopolitical risks, coupled with a rebound in investor demand and central banks increasing their gold reserves, have supported further rises in gold prices. The U.S. Treasury announced plans to at least double the liquidity support for long-term nominal coupon Treasury repurchase operations, raising the maximum amount from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation. This adjustment covers the 10-to-20-year and 20-to-30-year Treasury segments and will take effect on September 9, 2026, continuing until November 4, 2026. In its statement, the U.S. Treasury noted, "This increase in the repurchase operation scale reflects the Treasurys desire to provide greater liquidity support in the long-term nominal Treasury space. Market participants continue to demonstrate a strong willingness to participate, as evidenced by the significant number of high-quality bids frequently received in long-term Treasury repurchase operations." Upon the announcement, U.S. Treasury yields dropped sharply, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury falling nearly 7 basis points to 4.641%, and the yield on the 30-year Treasury plummeting nearly 10 basis points to 5.189%. Safe-haven and investment demand have driven investors towards metals and other sectors. Gold, with its low correlation to traditional risk assets such as stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange, often serves to hedge portfolio risks and stabilize risk-adjusted returns during times of significant market volatility. On Wednesday (August 19), during New York's late trading, spot gold surged by 4.3% to $4,523.08 per ounce. COMEX gold futures rose by 3.62% to $4,580.70 per ounce. Spot silver skyrocketed by 5.8% to $67.008 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures gained 4.83% to $67.13 per ounce. At the same time, the continuously growing U.S. government debt is increasing market worries. Data released by the U.S. Treasury on August 19 showed that the total amount of U.S. federal government debt has surpassed $40 trillion. Michael Peterson, CEO of the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, stated on the 19th that in less than a decade, U.S. federal government debt has doubled. As Americans take on more debt, interest costs increase, and simultaneously, this debt damages economic growth, slows wage growth, and living costs continue to rise. With the aging U.S. society and the ongoing escalation of healthcare costs, debt growth is expected to accelerate; without budget reforms, U.S. federal government debt could reach $50 trillion in just six years. Historical data indicates that the outstanding federal government debt balance previously surpassed $30 trillion in January 2022. The Congressional Budget Office had predicted in May 2023 that the $40 trillion threshold would not be reached until the fiscal year 2028, but the reality has come much earlier than expected. The surge in U.S. debt is prompting global central banks to diversify their reserve assets, gradually becoming significant buyers in the gold market. The ongoing increase in central banks' gold allocations may help provide long-term support for gold prices and stabilize the long-term price center, highlighting gold's strategic value in long-term allocation. In 2025, global central banks net purchased 848 tons of gold, remaining above their ten-year average of 681 tons for five consecutive years. The findings from the 2026 Global Central Bank Gold Reserve Survey indicated that 89% of central banks believe their gold reserves will increase in the next 12 months. Meanwhile, the proportion of central banks that believe their own gold reserves will increase in the coming 12 months reached a record 45%. Citis commodity team is optimistic about the gold price outlook, predicting that gold prices could reach $5,000 per ounce in the next 6 to 12 months, with an average prediction of $4,530 per ounce in 2026 and $4,850 per ounce in 2027. The bank estimates that every 10% fluctuation in gold prices will impact earnings in 2026 and 2027 by approximately 16%. CITIC Futures believes that short-term gold prices may maintain high-level fluctuations, with the wording of the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes and whether long-term yields are driven by real interest rates, term premiums, or fiscal concerns playing a critical role. If expectations for a decrease in the dollar and interest rate hikes continue to cool, the long bond sell-off may exert relatively limited pressure on gold; however, if energy prices rise and reinforce inflation and rate hike expectations, gold price volatility could further amplify. Related concept stocks: CHINAGOLDINTL (02099): CHINAGOLDINTL announced its interim results for 2026, with sales revenue of approximately $914 million, an increase of 57.52% year-on-year. Mining operations generated approximately $620 million in profit, representing a year-on-year increase of 123.83%; profit attributable to shareholders was approximately $507 million, a year-on-year increase of 153.31%; earnings per share were 127.99 cents. Gold production decreased by 18% from 88,200 ounces in the same period in 2025 to 72,300 ounces. Total copper production was 78.6 million pounds (approximately 35,671 tons), a slight increase from 77 million pounds (approximately 34,924 tons) in the same period of 2025. Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (06693): The company expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company of approximately RMB 1.7 billion to RMB 1.78 billion for the first half of 2026, an increase of RMB 593 million to RMB 673 million compared to RMB 1.107 billion for the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of approximately 54% to 61%. Zijin Mining Group (02899): The company expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company of approximately RMB 39.1 billion for the first half of 2026, a year-on-year increase of approximately RMB 15.8 billion compared to RMB 23.3 billion for the same period last year, representing an increase of approximately 68%.