The navigation prospects of the Strait of Hormuz remain uncertain! Iran and Oman have yet to reach a new shipping agreement + A Saudi refinery has been attacked, and oil prices continue to rise.

Due to the lack of an agreement between Iran and Oman on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and the Houthi armed forces in Yemen claiming to have attacked a refinery in Saudi Arabia near the Red Sea, oil prices continue to rise. After a cumulative increase of more than 5% in the previous three trading days, by the time of this report on Monday, Brent crude oil futures had risen over 2%, priced at $84.37 per barrel, while WTI crude oil futures were reported at $78.75 per barrel. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated over the past weekend that Iran and Oman are "very close" to reaching an agreement on establishing a shipping route across the Strait of Hormuz. However, he also reiterated that finalizing a new shipping route does not mean the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. This has lowered market expectations for a quick restoration of energy transportation in the Middle East. According to reports, Secretary of the Iranian Supreme National Security Council, Zolghadr, indicated that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed if the United States did not change its conduct. The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is contingent on the U.S. meeting five conditions: permanently halting military actions against Iran and its regional allies, ceasing threats or insults toward Iran, lifting the maritime blockade and all sanctions against Iran, returning Iran's frozen assets, and compensating Iran for damages caused by related military actions. Iran has ruled out the possibility of direct dialogue with the United States, citing repeated violations of temporary peace agreements by the U.S. Araghchi stated that mediators are still striving to find a way to reopen negotiations. Without the U.S. ceasing violations of the memorandum of understanding and remedying the related breaches, Iran believes that there is no possibility for both sides to resume negotiations. U.S. President Trump has conveyed a message of patience. In an interview last Sunday, he mentioned that the U.S. is currently "handling" the issue discreetly. This statement follows several weeks of Trump threatening large-scale military strikes against Iran, only to back down afterward. Additionally, Iranian-backed Houthi forces claimed to have attacked the Jizan refinery in Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile, a tanker operated by the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company was also attacked near the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend. The risk of renewed conflict in the Middle East remains high, keeping the market vigilant. Harris Kourshid, Chief Investment Officer of Chicago's Karobaar Capital LP, stated, "As long as the market is pricing the 'possibility' of supply disruptions rather than the certainty of a return to normalcy, the market trend will remain bullish. I believe that geopolitical risks will continue to support oil prices until we see actual transportation flow return to normal."