The initial release of approximately $100 billion worth of stocks did not trigger a wave of sell-offs. SpaceX (SPCX.US) shares experienced slight fluctuations, while market sentiment remains relatively bearish.

The first batch of SpaceX (SPCX.US) restricted shares, valued at approximately $100 billion, officially became unlocked on Thursday. However, market reactions were rather calm as investors digested the impact of the significant increase in circulating shares while also beginning to focus on future rounds of larger unlocking arrangements. In early trading on Thursday, SpaceX's stock price fluctuated narrowly between gains and losses, with intraday volatility of less than 3%. The trading volume in the first 30 minutes after the market opened was about 93 million shares, equivalent to roughly 40% of the total trading volume from the previous trading day. The relatively stable stock performance comes during a sensitive period following SpaceX's first earnings report since going public. Previously, due to the companys capital expenditures related to artificial intelligence (AI) exceeding market expectations, the stock price plummeted 14% in a single day after the earnings report was released. Nevertheless, most Wall Street analysts maintain an optimistic outlook on the long-term prospects of the company. According to the IPO arrangement, up to 911.5 million shares are set to unlock this time, which at the current stock price values the company at around $100 billion, increasing the number of shares available for trading from approximately 639 million at the time of the IPO to about 1.55 billion. However, this is just the first step in SpaceXs unique nine-stage unlocking mechanism. Bernstein previously pointed out that compared to the traditional one-time unlocking of shares after 180 days of IPO, SpaceX has implemented a highly complex nine-stage phased unlocking mechanism. The largest share unlocks are still ahead. According to the prospectus, approximately 6.4 billion shares of Class A common stock held by Musk will unlock in June 2027, which will significantly increase the markets circulating supply at that time. For investors who bought SpaceX stock during the IPO or after its listing, the future likelihood of more restricted shares entering the market may create ongoing supply pressure on the stock price. The large-scale unlock has also continued to attract the attention of short sellers. According to data from S3 Partners, as of Wednesdays close, about 36% of SpaceXs circulating stock had been sold short, reflecting a high level of bearish sentiment in the market. As the companys stock price has significantly retreated from its peaks, the accumulated unrealized profits for short sellers have now exceeded $9 billion. However, market participants believe that not all shorts are purely betting on deteriorating fundamentals; a substantial portion of trading strategies primarily target the potential selling pressure following the unlocking of restricted shares, hoping to capitalize on early investors and employees cashing in on their holdings. In recent weeks, Wall Street investment banks and major trading firms have been preparing for the possible market impact of this large unlocking. As restricted shares gradually enter the market, the current question most investors are focused on is not whether there will be a sell-off, but who will become the new buyers. Some investors previously held SpaceX and xAI (now renamed SpaceXAI) shares indirectly through special purpose vehicles (SPVs). With the first batch of unlocks completed, these investors are expected to receive stocks allocated by the SPV managers in the coming days to weeks. Meanwhile, retail investors are actively looking to buy shares at lower prices. According to Vanda Research, during the first hour of trading after the substantial drop in SpaceXs stock following the earnings report on Wednesday, U.S. retail investors net purchased approximately $22.7 million worth of SpaceX shares, indicating that some investors see the price adjustment as a new allocation opportunity. Analysts believe that, with the first large-scale unlocking not resulting in significant selling pressure, the subsequent market trend will depend more on whether new capital can continuously absorb the unlocked shares and the impact of future rounds of larger-scale restricted share releases on supply and demand dynamics.