Memory shortages may persist until 2027! Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron's production capacity sold out in advance.

According to technology media reports on Tuesday, the tight supply of memory chips is expected to last until 2027. Industry insiders have revealed that the three major memory manufacturers have essentially completed capacity allocation negotiations for next year. In brief, Samsung (SSNLF), SK Hynix (SKHY.US), and Micron (MU.US) have sold out all expected memory supply for 2027, with no new capacity plans in place. The report states that the three major suppliers have allocated all DRAM and HBM capacity for 2027. Customers will ultimately receive only 60% to 70% of their initial requests. Industry insiders pointed out that 2027 will enter the most severe stage of memory shortage. The allocation of supply has been basically finalized, but the final shipping pricing will be determined closer to the delivery date. In terms of market share, data from Counterpoint Research's global memory tracking shows that Samsung's DRAM market share reached 39% in the second quarter, ranking first; SK Hynix came in second with 26%, a significant decline from 39% in the same period last year; Micron closely followed with 25%. Chinese memory chip manufacturer Changxin Memory Technologies (CXMT) recently went public and received investment attention, competing alongside Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix. Reports last month indicated that Apple Inc. has begun testing Changxin Memorys DRAM chips. Additionally, recent reports suggest that major PC manufacturers have started sourcing Changxin Memory's DRAM chips for certain laptop models to cope with the ongoing memory shortage. In response to the supply tightness, major memory chip manufacturers are actively expanding production: Samsung plans to increase production by 50%, SK Hynix has significantly raised capital expenditures, moved forward with a $26.5 billion IPO, and is making over $880 billion in local industry investments in South Korea, while Micron has committed to investing $250 billion in the U.S. by 2035. However, memory chip stocks collectively declined last month, partly due to market concerns that large-scale production increases in the industry may ultimately lead to an oversupply, exerting downward pressure on prices. This concern erupted in July, pushing the hottest trading theme for 2026 into a technical bear market. July 28, known as Black Monday, became a focal point of this outbreak, with South Korea's KOSPI index plummeting over 10% in a single day, and both SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics dropped more than 13%. This round of selling was not due to deteriorating fundamentals; on the contrary, the financial performance of the three major memory manufacturers has repeatedly reached new highs. Market concerns revolve around the aggressive expansion plans of these giants. Samsung aims to increase production by 50%; SK Hynix announced an investment of about 600 trillion won to expand DRAM production at the Yongin semiconductor cluster, with the completion of the originally planned cluster for 2045 being expedited by 12 years; Micron's capital expenditures for the 2026 fiscal year are expected to be around $27 billion, with over $10 billion in each quarter of the 2027 fiscal year. Morningstar analysts warned that new wafer fabs require 2 to 3 years to begin production, and when peak output coincides with a slowdown in demand, there will be a significant risk of oversupply.