A large amount of copper flowed into the United States before Trump's decision on copper tariffs! The import volume in July hit the highest level in at least 12 years, with global inventories continuing to shift to the U.S.

As U.S. President Trump is about to make a decision on whether to impose tariffs on imported refined copper, global copper trade is accelerating toward the United States. Data shows that U.S. copper imports in July reached about 200,000 tons, setting a record for the highest monthly tally since IHS Markit began tracking in 2014, and marking the fastest import rate in at least 12 years. Currently, approximately 110,900 tons of copper are stored in U.S. ports outside the London Metal Exchange (LME) warrant system. Market participants point out that the continuous increase in U.S. copper inventories is primarily due to a drawdown of stocks in other parts of the world. This year, as traders have been transporting copper resources to the United States to secure higher prices, LME warehouse inventories outside the U.S. have significantly decreased. Its worth noting that although the June 30 deadline for Commerce Secretary Ross to submit tariff recommendations has passed, the White House has yet to announce the final policy. Producers, consumer companies, and traders are closely monitoring whether Trump will further extend current trade protection measures on semi-finished copper products to include raw materials such as refined copper. Meanwhile, copper prices on the COMEX in New York remain significantly higher than LME copper prices, continuing to create an arbitrage window favorable for imports into the United States. Data indicates that in July, the average price differential between near-term COMEX copper futures and LME spot copper exceeded $350 per ton, sufficient to cover transport costs and attract a continuous flow of overseas copper resources into the U.S. Driven by expectations of tariffs, U.S. official COMEX copper stocks have grown by over 40% this year, reaching a historical high. The market is generally estimating that the total U.S. copper inventory has surpassed 1 million tons. The market believes that in the context of rapid development in power grid construction, artificial intelligence (AI), electric vehicles, and the defense industry, copper is becoming an increasingly important strategic resource for the United States, with tariff expectations also objectively driving the U.S. to build up strategic reserves in advance. However, there is currently no timetable announced for when the Trump administration will make a final decision on whether to impose tariffs on refined copper. There is a clear division of opinion in the market regarding the taxation issue. Supporters argue that raising import tariffs will help drive investment in domestic copper mining and smelting in the U.S.; opponents contend that this move will increase costs for manufacturers that rely on imported copper raw materials and weaken the international competitiveness of U.S. manufactured products. Currently, the U.S. has imposed a 50% tariff on semi-finished copper products and copper derivatives. Market participants believe that if Trump ultimately decides to tax refined copper, there may be a final surge in imports before the tariffs are officially implemented; if the plan is abandoned, the large inventories and arbitrage positions accumulated over the past 18 months may be quickly liquidated, causing a reallocation of global copper trade flows. In fact, tariff expectations have dominated the global copper market trends over the past year, repeatedly pushing New York copper prices above London copper prices. Last July, Trump asked Ross to study whether a phased 15% tariff should be imposed on imported refined copper starting from January 2027. At the same time, the London market is also showing signs of tightening supplies. Currently, LME spot copper is at a premium of about $65 per ton over three-month copper, the highest level since January of this year. The spot premium structure presented in the market typically indicates a tightening of short-term spot supply, reflecting the ongoing concentration of global copper resources toward the United States.