China Academy of Information and Communications Technology: By 2025, the scale of China's artificial intelligence industry will exceed 1.2 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 40%.

On August 3, the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology (CAICT) announced that it would systematically monitor the artificial intelligence (AI) industry, quantitatively analyze the industry scale, and that this work is of great significance in scientifically and orderly promoting the high-quality development of China's AI industry, serving as an important foundational task. CAICT has been continuously conducting research on the AI industry and estimating its scale for 2025. According to calculations, by 2025, the scale of China's AI industry will exceed 1.2 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 40%. By June 2026, the number of AI companies will surpass 6,600, accounting for 15% of the global total, creating a complete industrial system covering the foundational base, model frameworks, and industry applications. The AI industry chain consists of three layers: the foundational layer, the model framework layer, and the application layer. By 2025, the scale of the foundational layer of China's AI industry will grow by 59% year-on-year, accounting for 38%; the scale of the model framework layer will grow by 189%, accounting for 7%; and the scale of the application layer will grow by 22%, accounting for 55%. The scale of China's AI industry is highly concentrated, with Beijing, Guangdong, Shanghai, Zhejiang, and Shandong being the leading provinces in AI industry development. These five provinces collectively account for over 80% of the scale of China's AI industry. The AI industry is characterized by broad boundaries, rapid product evolution, and accelerated integration with traditional industries. CAICT has established a special research team to collaborate with various sectors in industry, academia, and research to address key challenges, organize multiple rounds of discussions and verifications, and promote the formulation of relevant standards. Building on existing methods for industrial statistics and scale estimation, CAICT has proposed a systematic method for estimating the scale of the AI industry. This estimation method adheres to standard guidance and is based on publicly available data and primary research data. Through the four steps of "defining boundaries," "screening companies," "calculating coefficients," and "measuring scale," it aims to achieve an estimation of the entire AI industry chain and its sub-regional scales in China. CAICT has taken the lead in formulating two relevant industry standards for AI: "Defining Boundaries for AI Industry" and "Identifying AI Companies," both of which have been discussed in a specialized standards interpretation meeting to provide a unified basis for industry statistics, policy formulation, and business practices. In the next steps, CAICT will continue to strengthen the foundation of industry monitoring, clarify the industrial development pattern, keep abreast of industry dynamics in real-time, accurately identify risks and opportunities, and provide strong support for scientific decision-making by the government and healthy industry development. This article is compiled from CAICT, edited by Chen Wenfang.