Record-breaking gamble! SpaceX (SPCX.US) short bets soar to $24.6 billion as the first financial report and the "double calamity" of a $100 billion lockup expiry are set to strike next week.

As SpaceX (SPCX.US) prepares to release its first earnings report since going public amid the largest lock-up expiration in history, Wall Street short sellers are flooding into this highly scrutinized company owned by Musk at an unprecedented rate. According to the latest data from S3 Partners, as of July 29, short positions in SpaceX have soared to 219.3 million shares, representing approximately 34% of publicly traded shares, with a nominal value of up to $24.6 billion. This scale has surpassed the short positions of Tesla, Inc., making SpaceX one of the most heavily shorted large companies in the U.S. market. Short positions have skyrocketed nearly tenfold from 23.3 million shares at the early IPO phase in just over a month, stemming from a three-way game surrounding earnings data, the influx of unlocked shares, and valuation bubbles. S3s research director, Sam Pierson, bluntly stated, The biggest bet right now is the lock-up expirationthe market believes there wont be any news in the earnings report that can offset the impact of a large influx of unlocked shares. The core logic for short sellers: betting that the $100 billion lock-up flood will collapse valuations. Short sellers have aggressively positioned themselves in SpaceX, driven by a simple yet brutal core logicthey are betting on the supply shock set to arrive next week. SpaceX is scheduled to release its first quarterly earnings report as a public company after U.S. stock market hours on August 4 (Tuesday). Just two days later, on August 6, up to 911.5 million shares will become eligible for unrestricted trading according to the companys staged lock-up arrangements. What does this release scale mean? Currently, only about 640 million shares of SpaceX are available for trading, accounting for roughly 5% of the total equity. The initial unlock will more than double the proportion of shares available for trading to about 12%. But this is just the beginningprospectuses indicate that by the end of the year, the total number of shares available for trading could increase from the current 639 million shares to 5.33 billion shares, a more than sevenfold increase. S3 Partners research director, Sam Pierson, directly stated, The biggest bet right now is the lock-up expirationeffectively, there wont be any news in the earnings report that can offset the massive influx of unlocked shares into the market. Even more concerning is that the 911.5 million shares unlocking on August 6 will only be the first batch. Subsequent dates, such as August 20 and September 9, will see an additional 7% of shares unlocked. There are also up to 455.8 million shares subject to early unlocking conditions, but the previously set price threshold (maintaining a price above $175.50 for five of ten consecutive trading days) has become unattainable due to the stock price plunge. Morgan Stanleys latest report warns that SpaceX is about to face its most dangerous momentapproximately $100 billion worth of stock may flood into the market in the coming weeks. The borrowing costs for shorting SpaceX have increased due to overcrowding among short sellers, but Pierson expects borrowing difficulties to ease after the lock-up expiration. Morgan Stanley describes this earnings report as the most dangerous moment for SpaceX since its IPO. The firm projects SpaceXs Q2 revenue at about $6.75 billion, with an adjusted loss per share of $0.35; the number of global consumer users for Starlink is expected to reach 12 million, with an ARPU of approximately $65.50. Morgan Stanley notes that what truly influences market sentiment may not necessarily be financial numbers, but comments from management regarding AI, Starlink, and Starships future development direction. Investors are particularly focused on the Starship development timeline, pace of AI computing power deployment, and overall progress of the Grok and Cursor models. However, since the acquisition of Cursor is expected to close later in this quarter, Q2 earnings will not disclose the specific financial contributions from that transaction. As short sellers gather en masse, the costs of borrowing SpaceX shares for shorting are also rising. However, S3's Pierson pointed out, For those short sellers wanting to maintain their positions into next week, there will be some resistance, but afterward, borrowing costs are likely to return to a more accommodating level. Musk's wealth halved: Over $600 billion evaporated in a month. Meanwhile, SpaceX's stock price continues to be under pressure. On Friday (July 31), it closed down 3.4% at $108.37, having briefly hit a historic low of $107.01 during intraday trading. This price is about 20% lower than the IPO issuance price of $135 on June 12 and has plummeted over 52% from the historical high of $225.64 reached post-listing. In July alone, SpaceX's stock dropped 36.57%. The simultaneous plummet of SpaceX and Tesla, Inc. is delivering a devastating blow to Musk's personal fortune. According to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, Musk's current net worth has fallen to approximately $684 billion. Just over a month ago, on June 16, his wealth reached its peak at around $1.33 trillionmeaning that in just a month and a half, over $600 billion in wealth has vanished. This decline alone exceeds the total wealth of any billionaire on the Bloomberg Global 500 list other than Musk. The simultaneous crash of these two core assets is the direct reason for the wealth shrinkage. Since reaching a closing high of $201.80 on June 16, SpaceX's stock has plummeted by 46%. Tesla, Inc. has seen its stock fall by 17% since releasing its second-quarter earnings report on July 22. The Tesla, Inc. report indicated that the company recorded negative quarterly free cash flow for the first time in two years, despite an increase in both vehicle deliveries and revenue. Musk holds approximately $129 billion of Tesla, Inc. stock and more than $550 billion of SpaceX stock. The fluctuations in the value of these two holdings directly determine the wealth landscape of the worlds richest person. Three long-term variables: lock-up expiration, S&P inclusion, and potential merger with Tesla, Inc. S3 Partners Pierson points out that there are three key drivers to watch in the coming year: The first is the lock-up process. This is the most pressing short-term risk. After the initial unlock of 911.5 million shares, there will be further rounds of unlocking, which will continue to put supply pressure on the stock price. The second is the inclusion in the S&P 500 index. According to relevant regulations, new stocks must meet seasoning rules (usually requiring a listing period of 6 to 12 months and consecutive profitability) to be included, meaning SpaceX wont be eligible until at least mid-2027. However, the market is already starting to price this in early. The third is the potential merger with Tesla, Inc. Pierson noted that if SpaceX and Tesla, Inc. achieve some form of business merger, it would accelerate this inclusion process. Although this idea is still speculative, it is not entirely unimaginable given Musks control over both companies.