The IPO feast for AI unicorns has hit the pause button! OpenAI is reportedly delaying its listing until 2027, and SpaceX's plummet serves as the most glaring warning.

The frenzy of the "largest IPO in history" lasted less than two weeks, as SpaceX plummeted from a peak of $225 to $108, triggering a profound tsunami of confidence issues throughout the AI capital market. According to several informed sources, ChatGPT developer OpenAI has significantly scaled back its initial ambition of going public "as early as this fall" and now clearly leans towards postponing its IPO timetable until 2027. This delay is a direct result of the collision between CEO Sam Altman's insistence on a trillion-dollar valuation floor and the harsh realities of the market. SpaceX's "cautionary tale": from the euphoria of $225 to the sobering reality of $108 On June 12, SpaceX debuted on NASDAQ with an issuance price of $135, with its market capitalization exceeding $1.77 trillion on the first day, setting a record for the largest IPO in U.S. stock market history. Retail investor subscriptions surpassed $100 billion, and the market viewed it as a perfect model of the dual narrative of AI and the space economy. However, this euphoria lasted less than two weeks. On June 23, SpaceX suffered a single-day drop of about 16%. By July 15, the stock price fell below the issuance price of $135 for the first time. As of the market close on July 28, SpaceX's stock was quoted at $116.41, reflecting a cumulative decline of 48.4% from the historical high of $225.64, approaching a "halving"; by the market close on July 31 (Friday), it further dropped to $108, with the market capitalization evaporating by more than $1.2 trillion from its peak. This crash posed a direct psychological threat to OpenAI's IPO plans. Bankers advising OpenAI on its IPO explicitly warned that the recent volatility in tech stocks and the significant drop in SpaceX's stock price post-IPO could severely dampen retail investors' enthusiasm for OpenAI's stock offering. One informed source revealed that OpenAI's advisors candidly communicated with the company over the past week, stating that retail investors might lack enthusiasm for its shares. Fidelity Securities noted in a recent report that OpenAI's anchored valuation "is closer to $700 billion to $800 billion, rather than $1 trillion." The obsession with a trillion-dollar valuation: Altman's "red line" and the dilemma of advisors OpenAI's valuation dilemma is at the heart of the delayed decision-making. In March 2026, OpenAI completed a $122 billion financing round, achieving a post-money valuation of $852 billion, making it the highest-valued private tech company globally. However, this accomplishment fell short of Altman's psychological expectations. According to informed sources, Altman has been urging his advisory team, including bankers and lawyers, to devise ways to push the company's IPO valuation to $1 trillion. The advisory team presented Altman with two options: one was to postpone the IPO to 2027, waiting for an improved market environment while allowing the company's financial performance to come closer to the trillion-dollar valuation target; the other was to go public by the end of 2026 but accept a lower valuation. According to someone who has been in contact with Altman, when advisors presented this choice, Altman stated that any plan reducing the valuation to below $1 trillion was "not feasible." Meanwhile, OpenAI's financial situation is also testing investors' patience. The company posted a net loss of up to $38.5 billion last year, primarily due to massive expenditures in computing infrastructure development, R&D investments, and corporate restructuring. According to The Information, OpenAI burned through $3.7 billion in cash in the first quarter of 2026, exceeding half of its revenue of $5.7 billion during the same period. The company expects to invest $600 billion in computing and hardware by 2030. Anthropic "takes the lead," silently challenging with a valuation of $965 billion While OpenAI hesitates, its biggest competitor, Anthropic, is rapidly heading towards the public market. At the end of May this year, Anthropic completed a Series H financing of $65 billion, propelling its post-money valuation to $965 billion, surpassing OpenAI's valuation of $852 billion. On June 1, Anthropic stealthily submitted an IPO application to the SEC. On July 15, media reports indicated that Anthropic is accelerating its IPO plans, with underwriting banks beginning to arrange meetings between management and potential investors, aiming for a listing as early as October this year. Anthropic has selected Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan as lead underwriters. Informed sources indicate that in recent months, some of OpenAI's major investors have privately expressed concerns about the company's rapid cash consumption relative to its growth, while other investors have hedged their bets on OpenAI by investing in Anthropic. Anthropic is speeding up its IPO plans for the fall and has begun meeting with potential investors, emphasizing the competitive advantage it holds over the ChatGPT creator. Meanwhile, OpenAI, which initially hoped to go public ahead of Anthropic, may now have to wait until next year. Market background: The AI sector is cooling down, and the IPO window is narrowing OpenAI's postponement is not an isolated case. Analysts point out that IPOs for large model companies originally set for the second half of 2026 may be postponed until the first half of 2027 due to decreased market risk appetite and uncertainty in the liquidity environment. The adjustment of the IPO timetable indicates that the highly anticipated listing plan will be significantly delayed compared to previous market expectations of this fall. On June 8, OpenAI stealthily submitted its S-1 filing to the SEC. In a statement at that time, the company stated: "We have not decided on a listing date; it may take some time as some matters are easier to advance as a private company. Submitting the IPO documents gives us a faster option to enter the public market when it aligns better with the company's interests." The most straightforward interpretation of the 2027 timetable is that OpenAI has the capacity to wait. By delaying, the company can continue to expand its usage, refine its pricing, and seek a more stable business mix among consumer products, enterprise tools, and infrastructure partners before entering the public market and facing quarterly discipline. According to recent reports, OpenAI's annualized recurring revenue in July has already surpassed the total of the entire second quarter.