National Bureau of Statistics Interpretation: In July, China's Purchasing Managers' Index saw a decline.

In July, China's Purchasing Manager Index declined Chief Statistician of the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Survey Center, Huo Lihui, interprets the July 2026 China Purchasing Manager Index On July 31, 2026, the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Survey Center and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the China Purchasing Manager Index. In response, Chief Statistician Huo Lihui provided an interpretation. In July, the manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index, non-manufacturing business activity index, and comprehensive PMI output index were 49.2%, 49.0%, and 49.3% respectively, a decrease of 1.1, 1.2, and 1.3 percentage points compared to the previous month, indicating a decline in economic sentiment. 1. The manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index has declined, while high-tech manufacturing continues to expand In July, affected by factors such as the higher baseline of rapid growth in the manufacturing sector in the previous period and the entry of some manufacturing industries into the traditional production off-season, the manufacturing PMI fell to 49.2%. (1) Equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing continue to play a supportive leading role. The PMIs for equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing were 51.4% and 53.3% respectively, significantly higher than the overall manufacturing sector, maintaining rapid expansion and driving the development of manufacturing towards a new and better direction; the PMIs for consumer goods and high energy-consuming industries were 47.8% and 47.0%, down 2.4 and 0.1 percentage points from last month, indicating a decline in economic sentiment. (2) Some equipment manufacturing sectors witnessed rapid growth in production and demand. The manufacturing production index and new orders index were 49.9% and 48.5% respectively, down 1.5 and 2.7 percentage points from last month, indicating a decline in both production and market demand among manufacturing enterprises. Specifically, the production index and new orders index for sectors like general equipment and computer communication electronic equipment were above 53.0%, reflecting high market activity and rapid growth in production and demand; however, the production index and new orders index for industries like non-metal mineral products, black metal smelting and rolling processing, and automobiles fell below the critical point, indicating weak supply and demand sentiment. (3) Price indices have continuously declined. The major raw materials purchasing price index and the factory price index were 53.2% and 47.8% respectively. Influenced by recent fluctuations in the prices of certain bulk commodities, these indices have fallen for four consecutive months. Among them, the two price indices for non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing were both below 45.0%. Due to significant price fluctuations, enterprises' purchasing intentions have weakened, and the purchasing volume index fell to 49.4%. (4) Market expectations remain stable. The manufacturing production and business activity expectation index was 54.1%, indicating that enterprises generally remain optimistic about market development. By sector, the expectation indices for industries like food, beverage, and refined tea, as well as railway, shipping, and aerospace equipment exceeded 60.0%, reflecting increased confidence among relevant enterprises regarding recent industry developments. 2. The non-manufacturing business activity index has declined, while the cultural and tourism industries remain active In July, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 49.0%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in non-manufacturing economic sentiment. (1) The cultural and tourism industries are experiencing a resurgence in sentiment. The services business activity index was 49.3%, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decrease in market activity in the service industry. By industry, driven by summer consumption, there was an increase in residential leisure and tourism travel, with significant rebounds in business activity indices for air transport, accommodation, and cultural sports entertainment compared to last month, leading to rapid growth in overall business volumes for related enterprises; however, large declines in business activity indices were noted in sectors such as wholesale and monetary financial services, which were the main factors for the drop in service industry sentiment this month; the business activity indices for capital market services and real estate fell below the critical point. The services business activity expectation index remained steady at 56.0%, indicating stable confidence among enterprises regarding recent market developments. (2) The construction industry's economic sentiment is declining. Influenced by recent adverse factors such as high temperatures and flooding disasters in certain regions, the construction progress has slowed, with a business activity index of 47.0%, down 2.0 percentage points from the previous month. However, the business activity expectation index for the construction industry rose by 0.7 percentage points to 51.8%, reflecting increased confidence among enterprises regarding recent industry developments. 3. The comprehensive PMI output index is below the critical point In July, the comprehensive PMI output index was 49.3%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slowdown in production and business activities among enterprises. The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index that comprise the comprehensive PMI output index were 49.9% and 49.0% respectively. This article is compiled from the "National Bureau of Statistics" official website, GMTEight editor: Feng Qiuyi.