Zhongtai listed banks look ahead to the semi-annual report of 2026: interest income supports revenue resilience, profit performance expected to remain stable.

Zhongtai released a research report stating that the certainty of bank performance for the whole year will bring stable returns for bank stocks in 2026, which are short-term and related to market style. The continuous economic development model (strong policy determination), strong corporate business and residents' sustained low-risk preference will drive the bottom recovery of interest differentials, and the continuous revenue growth is a bright spot, with strong performance certainty. There are two main investment themes for bank stocks: one is regional advantage and strong certainty of city commercial banks, including regions such as Jiangsu, Shanghai, Chengdu-Chongqing, Shandong, and Fujian; the other is a logical choice of high dividend stability. Key points from Zhongtai: Core points: 1. Strong revenue resilience: Stable interest differentials support excellent interest income performance, while fee income and other non-interest income are expected to remain positive supports for revenue. 2. Expected stable net profit performance: Retail risk exposure has converged, with sustained observation, support for overall asset quality in the corporate sector; strong revenue resilience supports listed banks with ample reserves, and net profit growth is expected to remain stable. Improved certainty: Gradual stabilization of interest differentials, strong certainty in the recovery of interest income; Wealth management supports fee income maintenance; Other non-interest income is expected to provide positive contributions to revenue on a low base. 2. Profit improvement is expected, but release is conservative: Overall revenue recovery, but retail risks are expected to continue to be exposed, listed banks are expected to achieve ample reserves. Credit volume and structure: It is expected that credit in June will have momentum, but weaker than in previous years, and may continue to grow less than the same period last year; some provinces will maintain a relatively high level of prosperity. (1) Review of credit in May: The balance of RMB loans at the end of May increased by 520 billion yuan compared to the end of April, a year-on-year increase of 100 billion yuan, with only short-term corporate loans and bills increasing compared to April, while the balances of other items have declined. Corporate side: The demand for entity financing is still weak, bond substitution, and multiple factors such as support loans that mature during the epidemic period result in a continued year-on-year decline in corporate loans, with only bills relying on boosting. Residential side: The willingness to leverage is not high, sales of real estate companies rebounded in May, but it is expected that early repayment will continue + demand for public fund loans to replace commercial loans, and short- and medium-term loan increments have declined compared to last year. (2) Prospects...