Exports exceeding 40 million barrels, prices surged by 20%! Iran's crude oil "unblocked" returns to the market, strait tolls a three-way struggle.

With the temporary ceasefire and memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran gradually being implemented, Iranian crude oil, once blocked by war, is returning to the market at a faster than expected pace. Iranian officials have recently been vocal, claiming that oil exports have skyrocketed to over 40 million barrels, with prices 20% higher than before the war. At the same time, Iran is engaged in intense negotiations with Oman and the United States regarding future transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz. Following the lifting of the blockade, exports surged and prices have significantly rebounded Iran's Speaker of Parliament and chief nuclear negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, stated in a television interview on Tuesday that since the US lifted its naval blockade on Iranian ports, the country has exported over 40 million barrels of crude oil, with export prices approximately 20% higher than pre-war levels. He emphasized that during the two-month blockade, Iran "could not even export a barrel of oil," but now, "the sanctions have effectively been lifted, Iran's crude oil prices have increased by 20%, and revenue is continuously flowing into accounts." Estimates from independent agencies are even more positive. Using satellite imagery, onshore photography, and real-time ship identification systems, the tanker tracking company TankerTrackers.com evaluated that since the US lifted the blockade two weeks ago, Iranian crude oil exports may have reached 50 million barrels. Influenced by diplomatic developments and expectations of a rebound in supply in the Gulf region, Brent crude oil was trading around $73 per barrel on Wednesday, a nearly 40% decrease from the peak of $118 in April during the war. Gregory Brew, Senior Analyst at Chang Chun Eurasia Group, stated that before the war, Iranian crude oil was priced at a discount of $10 to $15 per barrel compared to Brent crude, to compensate for the sanctions risk borne by buyers. Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Ismael Bagaie, further confirmed improvement in the trade environment in his speech on July 1. He pointed out that since the US and Iran signed the memorandum of understanding, the sales conditions for oil and petrochemical products have become significantly easier. Just the day before, the US Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control issued a general license allowing various transactions involving Iranian crude oil, petrochemical products, and petroleum products production, sales, transport, and dismantling, valid until August 21. This provides a critical compliance channel for Iran's energy exports in the short term. The dispute over strait passage fees: Oman proposes "voluntary fund," US opposes However, more challenging than oil exports is the future management structure of the Strait of Hormuz. According to the memorandum of understanding signed remotely by the US and Iran on June 17, Iran agreed to allow ships to pass through the strait free of charge within 60 days to allow vessels stranded during the war to leave and restore regional shipping. However, Ghalibaf reiterated multiple times that the free passage was only for the 60 days, and subsequent fees would be charged "according to the methods and procedures set by Iran," as the Strait of Hormuz belongs to Iran, and Iran will not relinquish its rights under any circumstances. As Iran insists on mandatory fees, Oman, which co-manages the strait, proposed a more flexible approach. As reported on Monday, Oman has submitted a formal proposal to the US and Western countries, advocating for a "voluntary service fee" for passing ships, rather than a mandatory toll. The plan is based on the navigation safety fund model of the Strait of Malacca and the Singapore Strait - funds are raised by private foundations in the form of voluntary donations to maintain navigation safety. This contrasts with Iran's mandatory fee plan and is seen as Oman's attempt to find a balance between sovereignty claims and freedom of navigation. The US does not support this proposal. Reports indicate that the US strongly opposes charging any fees for passage through the Strait of Hormuz, but has accepted Oman's proposal and plans to resolve differences through working-level negotiations, hoping that the strategic partnership with Oman can reconcile the contradictions. Debate over the use of unfrozen assets, uncertainties remain in subsequent negotiations Regarding the unfreezing of assets, Ghalibaf refuted US President Trump's statement that "unfrozen Iranian assets will be used to purchase Shenzhen Agricultural Power Group," stating clearly that of the approximately $24 billion in unfrozen overseas assets, $12 billion will be directly transferred to the Central Bank of Iran, to be used for "purchasing any necessary goods at any price, in any currency, anywhere in the world," rather than specifically purchasing American goods. As for the next steps in US-Iran negotiations, Ghalibaf drew a red line: "Our negotiations were only conducted before signing the memorandum of understanding, and there are currently no negotiations in progress." He added that the recent trip to Switzerland was only to discuss the implementation of the five clauses of the memorandum, and Iran will not engage in new dialogue until the conditions are met. It is currently unclear how the strait will be managed after the 60-day deadline ends. It is understood that ships can cross the Strait of Hormuz through either the southern corridor along Oman's coast or the northern channel controlled by Iran.