Preview of US Stock Market | Three major stock index futures rise together, SK Hynix launches US IPO.

Pre-Market Market Trends 1. Before the market opens on June 30th (Tuesday), the futures of the three major US stock indexes rose together. As of the time of writing, the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose 0.02%, the S&P 500 index futures rose 0.10%, and the Nasdaq futures rose 0.23%. 2. At the time of writing, the Germany DAX index rose 1.33%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose 0.97%, the France CAC 40 index rose 0.31%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index rose 1.10%. 3. At the time of writing, WTI crude oil rose 0.45% to $71.07 per barrel. Brent crude oil rose 0.57% to $74.33 per barrel. Market News The Japanese yen falls below 162 to a 40-year low! Japan's intervention "red line" may move to 163-165. The Japanese yen exchange rate (USD/JPY) fell to its weakest level in forty years, prompting foreign exchange market strategists and professional traders to look for the next intervention red line set by the Japanese government. Following the breach of the 162 level by USD/JPY on Tuesday, more senior foreign exchange market strategists point out that 163 and higher levels will be the next key levels to watch. They believe that the Japanese Ministry of Finance may tolerate a weaker yen exchange rate than during the intervention period in 2024. Strategists suggest that, due to increasingly crowded short positions on the yen and the significant impact of this week's US non-farm payrolls data, the yen could quickly reach these new thresholds. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. June DRAM Survey: Significant increase in HBM price expectations for 2027. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.'s latest monthly survey (as of June 26th) shows that DDR5 spot prices have risen by 20% since May 1st, with a premium of 25% compared to May contract prices. DDR4 spot prices have risen by 11% during the same period, with a higher premium of 45%. The premium implies that the spot market is significantly ahead of contract market pricing, which usually indicates that contract prices will follow suit. The sentiment index shows that the overall sentiment of the DRAM market in June is "moderately positive," unchanged from April. Additionally, analysts in the report have significantly raised their price growth forecast for HBM in 2027, from +14% to +44% year-on-year. This is because of the strong performance of traditional DDRAM spot prices, which may be taken into consideration in next year's HBM pricing discussions. Furthermore, the report explicitly states that the upside risk has not been fully accounted for yet. In other words, +44% may not be the end point. Considering the tight supply and demand of HBM, as well as the continued widening price gap between traditional DDRAM and HBM pricing, analysts believe that there is still additional upside risk to their forecasts. Over 80% of long positions are underwater! Citigroup warns: the decline of the Nasdaq may not be over. Citigroup stated that due to investors' overall high risk exposure to the US technology sector, the sector is facing the risk of further decline. A team of strategists led by David Chew stated that the recent pullback in the Nasdaq 100 index, which is predominantly composed of technology stocks, has not been accompanied by a proportional reduction in long positions. David Chew wrote in a report, "The scale of long positions in the Nasdaq is still significantly larger than short positions, as nearly 80% of long positions are currently at a loss, which may exacerbate further downward pressure." Is gold hit by hawkish Fed expectations creating a "gold pit"? The worst retreat since 2008 is not the end of the bull market The "bottoming moment" of $3900 is brewing a new round of rises. Since the end of February, the spot and futures prices of gold have been persistently weak, dropping more than 1% on Tuesday, especially the gold spot prices that the market is focusing on are expected to record the largest monthly level decline since October 2008. This is mainly due to the political uncertainties of the Middle East GEO Group Inc and the escalating risk appetite for inflation control with hawkish monetary tightening expectations from the Federal Reserve overshadowing the demand for safe-haven assets related to fiscal deficits in Western countries. However, according to international financial giants such as Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., Barclays PLC Sponsored ADR, and Morgan Stanley, the recent sharp decline in gold price is more like a severe correction within the long-term bull market trajectory, rather than signaling the end of the long-term gold bull market, and emphasizes that the price of gold lingering around $3900 to $4000 is very close to the low point of this corrective period. OMFIF Survey: Global central banks show a "ditch the dollar invest in gold" trend for the first time, accelerating $10 trillion of public capital towards multipolarity. An official currency and Financial Institutions, Inc. forum (OMFIF) survey released on Tuesday regarding public investors shows that due to the increasing political risks associated with the US dollar, the number of central banks planning to reduce their allocation of US dollars over the next ten years will exceed those planning to increase their US dollar allocation. This is the first time this shift away from the US dollar has been found in this survey conducted by the official currency and Financial Institutions, Inc. forum. Approximately 79% of central banks and 60% of public funds believe that the global monetary system is moving towards a "multipolar" world. The survey found that the price of gold has reached a series of historic highs and is held by 82% of central banks, positioning it at the core of reserve management strategies. In the short term, gold is the asset that central banks most plan to increase their holdings in, with a net 30% of respondents planning to increase their allocation in the next one to two years. US Supreme Court ruling upholds Fed independence! Powell retains board seat Trump threatens "This isn't over". On Monday, the US Supreme Court rejected former President Trump's attempt to remove Federal Reserve Board member Lisa Cook. This ruling is seen by the outside world as upholding the cherished independence of the Federal Reserve, even though the Supreme Court did not make a final ruling on whether Trump ultimately has the power to remove Cook or any other member of the Federal Reserve. Cook welcomed the Supreme Court's ruling, stating that it confirms the Federal Reserve's obligation to make policy decisions independently without political interference. Meanwhile, Trump stated that the government will not stop due to the high court's ruling. He wrote on social media, "The Supreme Court sent Cook's lawsuit back to the lower court solely on procedural grounds. The core issue of the case is whether Cook is eligible to serve as a Federal Reserve Board member. This administration will take immediate legal action to ensure that an officer engaged in unlawful conduct does not have the authority to formulate critical economic policies affecting the welfare of all Americans." AI component manufacturing capacity squeeze, major factories reducing production exacerbate, wafer foundry mature process price hike effect may extend to 2027. According to the latest survey by TrendForce, as the demand for AI servers, general-purpose servers, and edge AI peripherals continues to rise, the allocation of wafer foundry production capacity has significantly shifted towards AI-related products, accelerating the change in the supply-demand structure of mature processes. Benefiting from the increase in AI-related Power orders and the reduction in production capacity of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR (TSM.US) and Samsung Electronics (SSNLF.US), the utilization rate and contract prices of 8-inch processes have seen a sharp rise. Meanwhile, the launch of the 12-inch mature process by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR is expected to drive mid- to long-term transfer effects; coupled with strong orders for 55nm and above Power ICs, Taiwan wafer plants have reduced production of High Voltage (HV) processes, shifting orders to mainland wafer supply chains, as well as the impact of additional factors such as the proliferation of new AI applications and raw material inflation, leading to a price uptrend in 12-inch mature process foundry services, expected to extend into 2027. Individual Stock News SK Hynix launches US IPO, planning to list ADS on NASDAQ. On June 30th, SK Hynix submitted an F-1 registration statement to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), officially launching the process for an initial public offering (IPO) in the US, planning to issue American depositary shares (ADS) and apply for listing on the NASDAQ Global Select Market with the stock code "SKHY". According to the registration statement, each ADS corresponds to a certain proportion of SK Hynix common stock, with core terms such as the offering size, offering price, and ADS-to-share ratio yet to be disclosed and will be determined based on the Korean market stock price and market conditions. Following the completion of this offering, SK Hynix will maintain its listing on the KOSPI in Korea while also listing in the US. New partnership agreement in place, Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN.US) may pay higher fees for using Anthropic technology. According to two sources familiar with the details of the negotiations between the two parties, earlier this year, Anthropic renegotiated some of the terms of their partnership with Amazon.com, Inc., and the tech and e-commerce giant will now incur higher costs when using Anthropic large models in their own products. One of the sources stated that due to the increase in costs, Amazon.com, Inc. is evaluating the use of other large models to reduce expenses, with alternative options including models from OpenAI and Amazon.com, Inc.'s in-house Nova large models. Leaks before the September launch event! Apple Inc.'s (AAPL.US) Indian manufacturing plant hacked, iPhone 18 Pro supply chain secrets exposed. In light of a data leak incident at Apple Inc.'s Indian manufacturing plant owned by Tata Electronics, details of components, supplier lists, and photos of the soon-to-be-launched iPhone 18 Pro model were leaked on the dark web. A ransomware group called "World Leaks" published over 200,000 files from Tata Electronics, including alleged component design and specification documents for Tata clients Apple Inc. and Tesla, Inc. This data breach also included files from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR (TSM.US) and Qualcomm (QCOM.US), both of which manufacture components for the iPhone. Tata Electronics stated last week, "Several weeks ago, Tata Electronics discovered that some of our systems had experienced a network security incident. Our emergency response protocol was immediately activated, and this incident has not had any impact on the operations across our business areas, which remain unaffected." Apple Inc. is investigating this breach, but has not responded to requests for comment. Digital Realty (DLR.US) acquires $3.5 billion stake in Blackstone's Northern Virginia data centers 288MW leasing assets consolidate AI computing power highlands. Digital Realty Trust Inc., the world's largest cloud and colocation neutral data center platform, announced on Monday (June 29th) that it has agreed to acquire a majority stake in three ultra-large-scale data centers in Northern Virginia owned by Blackstone Inc. (BX.US), with a total consideration of $3.5 billion. The transaction will be paid with $1.2 billion in cash and $2.3 billion in Digital Realty stock, with the assets valued at a total of $7.8 billion. Digital Realty will acquire an 80% interest in Blackstone's 96-megawatt data centers in Manassas and a 50% interest in the Sterling Digital Dulles campus 96-megawatt data center. The three data centers provide a total of 288 megawatts of IT capacity, fully leased to three investment-grade ultra-large-scale customers, with a composite credit rating of AA-. Advancing further in physical AI? NVIDIA Corporation's (NVDA.US) Siasun Robot&Automation team is recruiting. On June 29th, NVIDIA Corporation announced that the Siasun Robot&Automation team at NVIDIA Corporation is recruiting for positions in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen around four core directions: embodied intelligence, simulation, deployment, and solution architecture. NVIDIA Corporation stated that the team aims to accelerate the deployment of Siasun Robot&Automation from the lab to industrial implementation and to advance the application of intelligent automation across industries, with a focus on realizing real-world deployment of embodied intelligence Siasun Robot&Automation. It is understood that Siasun Robot&Automation, as named by Huang Renxun, is NVIDIA Corporation's next trillion-dollar growth opportunity and a key driver for NVIDIA Corporation's positioning in physical AI. Key Economic Data and Events Forecast 21:45 Beijing time: Chicago PMI for June in the US. 22:00 Beijing time: US Consumer Confidence Index from the Conference Board for June, US JOLTS Job Openings for May. 04:30 Beijing time the next day: API Crude Oil Inventory Change for the week ending June 26th in the US.