Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) Q2 deliveries or exceed expectations? Barclays and Morgan Stanley successively optimistic about China and Europe becoming growth drivers.

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) is expected to release its second-quarter delivery report before the end of the shortened trading week. Barclays PLC Sponsored ADR expects the electric car manufacturer to deliver 418,000 vehicles in the second quarter, significantly higher than the market's general expectation of 396,000 vehicles. Analyst Dan Levy added that for investors in Tesla, Inc., vehicle sales and fundamental factors are gradually taking a back seat. He said, "We believe that the current stock price of Tesla, Inc. is almost completely driven by market narrative, with investors focusing on the multiple inflection points expected in areas such as RoboTaxi, Optimus, and artificial intelligence (AI). On the other hand, fundamental indicators such as second-quarter delivery volume and profit margins are becoming increasingly marginalized in discussions." However, Levy and his team still believe that Barclays' judgment on the better-than-expected second-quarter deliveries and the return to sales growth should be seen as a positive signal. Levy emphasized, "We believe that our forecasts may be higher than investors' expectations, but we believe that this is supported by strong data for this quarter to date - positive momentum in the European market, strong sales in China, despite a slightly weaker market environment in the U.S." Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley has also raised its estimate for Tesla, Inc.'s second-quarter delivery volume. Analyst Andrew Pelkoko and his team expect deliveries to reach 413,000 vehicles, higher than the previous estimate of 373,000 vehicles. The bank pointed out that although the U.S. market trend remains soft, improvements in the European and Chinese markets are expected to drive a 7.6% year-on-year increase in delivery volume. The bank stated that the surprise from the European market is most significant, with vehicle registration data significantly higher than the same period last year, and April data continuing the recovery trend after a difficult period in 2025. The Chinese market is also showing improvement, with domestic sales in May achieving double-digit growth month-on-month and year-on-year, ending two consecutive months of year-on-year decline, indicating that demand is stabilizing. Although U.S. market sales as of May were still lower than the same period last year, the regional performance overall has exceeded Morgan Stanley's previous expectations. The favorable delivery outlook also prompted Morgan Stanley to raise its profit forecast. The bank raised its second-quarter adjusted EBITDA expectation by 11%, and slightly increased full-year revenue and profit forecasts, primarily reflecting an increase in delivery volume and an improvement in the automotive business profit margin.