Optimistic signals appear! Multiple oil tankers begin to navigate through the Strait of Hormuz, boosting confidence in the shipping industry.

More and more ships are voluntarily activating their positioning systems and releasing signals to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. This indicates that as geopolitical tensions ease, shipowners and traders' confidence in the key waterway continues to rise. Ship tracking data shows that on Tuesday morning, seven oil tankers appeared in the strait. Two non-Iranian super tankers are leaving the Persian Gulf fully loaded, three product tankers are heading towards the open sea, and two Suexmax tankers flying the Iranian flag are coming from the other side of the strait. Muyu Xu, senior crude oil analyst at Kpler Ltd., said this shift "reflects a restoration of confidence among shipowners, as the market expects Iran will no longer attack passing ships." However, he cautioned that the continuous safe and unobstructed passage of the waterway still needs to be observed. The Universal Glory and six other oil tankers were observed entering the Strait of Hormuz. Last week, the US and Iran reached a temporary agreement, paving the way for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The financial markets are closely watching the situation of the waterway. In recent days, millions of barrels of crude oil have been transported through this channel connecting the Persian Gulf to global markets, as well as liquefied natural gas carriers entering the strait. With the situation significantly improving and both the US and Iran engaging in permanent peace agreement negotiations in Switzerland, crude oil futures prices have seen a significant drop. On Tuesday, Brent crude prices fell below $77 per barrel. In comparison, oil prices before the outbreak of the Iran war were slightly below $73, indicating that most of the price increase caused by the war has been wiped out. Since the outbreak of the war at the end of February, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has almost come to a standstill. Now, more ships are willing to report their positions, allowing the crude oil and shipping markets, as well as global investors, to have a clearer understanding of the flow of traffic in the strait. During peacetime, around 135 vessels pass through this waterway daily, including energy carriers for crude oil, refined oil, liquefied natural gas, as well as bulk carriers, container ships, livestock carriers, and other cargo ships. These vessels usually rely on the Automatic Identification System (AIS) to broadcast their positions in real time. All the oil tankers observed passing through the strait on Tuesday had their systems turned on. Mainstream insurers, financing institutions, and maritime law firms generally require ships to activate AIS, using position visibility as a prerequisite for trade insurance and lending. Some large insurance companies explicitly stipulate that continuous signal response must be maintained to provide shipping insurance coverage. Among the ships observed, the VLCC Universal Glory entered the Strait of Hormuz from the Persian Gulf on Tuesday morning, carrying 2 million barrels of Saudi crude oil. The ship is sailing along the central route of the strait, en route to South Korea. Following closely behind are two product tankers, one flying the Norwegian flag, and another VLCC sailing along the coast of Oman. A day earlier, three VLCCs carrying Iranian crude oil openly signaled their passage. Regarding reverse voyages, the Suezmax tankers Sarak and Sobar are entering the strait, both setting sail from waters near Pakistan. On Monday, a non-Iranian VLCC and four LNG carriers activated AIS signals to enter the Persian Gulf. Despite more ships emitting navigation signals, some vessels choose to turn off their responders on certain parts of their journey. Just hours before the Universal Glory sailed through, a VLCC carrying Saudi and UAE crude oil, bound for Taiwan, entered the strait and then disappeared from radar. The vessel reappeared in the Arabian Sea hours later. At the time of writing, WTI crude oil futures prices fell by 0.50% to $73.49 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures prices fell by 0.54% to $77.10 per barrel. Regarding the future direction of oil prices, Danske Bank predicts that the average price of Brent crude oil for the remaining time of 2026 will be $80 per barrel, and it is expected to further rise to $85 per barrel in 2027. The bank emphasizes that even if the US and Iran reach an agreement and shipping resumes in the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices are unlikely to fall back into the pre-war range of $60-70 per barrel, as it will take months for Iran's oil production and exports to return to normal levels. The bank also points out that the continuous release of strategic oil reserves by the US may affect the current supply situation and suggests that the US may choose to maintain this policy for political reasons until the midterm elections in November.