Preview of US Stock Market | Three major stock index futures all rise, US and Iran confirm agreement, Super Central Bank Week Heavyweight Strike Coming

Pre-market market trends 1. Before the market opened on June 15 (Monday), the futures of the three major stock indexes in the US rose. As of the time of writing, Dow futures were up 0.93%, S&P 500 index futures were up 1.30%, and Nasdaq futures were up 2.16%. 2. As of the time of writing, the Germany DAX index rose by 1.43%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose by 0.09%, the France CAC 40 index rose by 1.24%, and the Europe Stoxx 50 index rose by 1.31%. 3. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil fell by 5.04% to $80.60 per barrel. Brent crude oil fell by 4.61% to $83.30 per barrel. Market News Big week ahead! SpaceX IPO frenzy continues, new Fed chair faces first test, and US-Iran agreement on the horizon. SpaceX, led by Elon Musk, successfully landed on the NASDAQ last Friday, marking the largest IPO in history. Looking ahead to the coming week, the US and Iran may soon sign an agreement, reopening the Strait of Hormuz; several central banks globally will announce interest rate decisions, with the new Fed chair, Kevin Wash, facing his first press conference after taking office. The market generally expects the Fed and the Bank of England to keep rates unchanged, while the central banks of Sweden, Norway, and Switzerland will also announce rate decisions. In the Asia-Pacific region, the central banks of Japan, Australia, and Indonesia will also announce rate decisions. War premium fading, "pre-war script" restarts! Wall Street signals market counterattack "AI computational power team" takes the lead. Some top hedge fund managers on Wall Street have indicated that a diversified investment portfolio consisting of AI computational investment themes, short-term US Treasury bonds, Asian currencies facing heavy losses, and even instant noodle stocks that have been hit hard since the Iran war in late February, looks set to be one of the early beneficiaries of the US-Iran peace agreement. In other words, with the war risk premium for Iran fading, hedge funds are collectively restarting trades centered around short-term US bonds, Asian currencies, and the AI computational power industry, which were extremely popular before the war broke out. The so-called "pre-war trading script," referring to the logic that dominated the market trades before the Iran war erupted at the end of February - low oil price pressure, controlled inflation expectations, no need for the Fed to take a hawkish stance, weak market hedging demand around the US dollar, ongoing increase in risk appetite around stock markets and cryptocurrencies, and the global stock market's tech growth stocks led by the AI computational power industry chain. Latest model taken offline by US government, Anthropic senior officials rush to White House to "put out fires." Recently, the US artificial intelligence (AI) company Anthropic is urgently negotiating with the Trump administration with the hope of removing restrictions on its latest AI models Fable 5 and Mythos 5. After the Trump administration announced last Friday (12th) a ban on foreign governments, enterprises, and individuals from using the aforementioned models, senior officials at Anthropic held several hours of talks with US officials over the weekend and sent multiple senior technical personnel to Washington to exchange with government security experts face to face. This controversy has attracted widespread attention in the cybersecurity community, with several experts publicly calling for the repeal of the restrictions. Oil prices plummet under US-Iran ceasefire agreement But the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz makes it difficult to return to the pre-war state with energy trade. As the US and Iran reach a ceasefire understanding, traders in the oil futures market and stock market strategists have reacted fervently and tumultuously to the temporary agreement reached between the US and Iran, especially in the stock market, which tends to have a more bullish sentiment for future trends - with a strong return of risk appetite, global stock markets soared on Monday, and strategists unanimously believe that under this agreement, the US and Iran will jointly reopen the Strait of Hormuz and gradually restore the flow of oil and natural gas trade from the Persian Gulf region in the Middle East. However, many senior analysts on Wall Street warn that it may take several months for the energy trade flow in the Strait of Hormuz to fully return to the normal state before the war. Clearing mines in the Strait of Hormuz may take 40 to 50 days, oil tankers stuck in the Persian Gulf, global inventories in crisis. Shipping and maritime security sources said that ensuring that there are no mines in the Strait of Hormuz may delay the recovery of shipping for several weeks. Five Western maritime security experts estimated that operations with traditional minesweepers and advanced underwater drones could last 40 to 50 days, after which insurers, shipping companies, and oil companies will have enough confidence to pass. According to estimates of the pre-war traffic, a large amount of Gulf oil has been blocked since the US and Israel attacked Iran on February 28, and with the delay in mine clearance, tens of millions of barrels of crude oil may be stranded, with analysis from the U.S. Energy Corp. showing that major economies' reserves are heading towards their lowest levels since at least 2003. The German Navy cited information from the US and UK navies that there are mines at four locations around the strait, and the Iranian Defense Committee had earlier warned that it would lay mines in shipping routes and communication lines in the gulf, with a maritime security group estimating that Iran still has up to 1,000 mines even after US strikes. The head of the UN shipping agency welcomed the agreement to reopen the strait on Monday, but said that it will take time to ensure all necessary security measures are in place, with only 12 to 15 vessels passing through the strait on a daily basis recently, far lower than the pre-war level of 120 to 140 vessels. Insiders say US-Iran agreement clarifies ownership of Strait of Hormuz. According to information from Iran on the 15th, an insider said that the US-Iran memorandum of understanding was modified in the final stages before reaching an agreement, "clearly and unambiguously" emphasizing Iran and Oman's exercise of management rights over the Strait of Hormuz. The latest version of the memorandum explicitly states that the "future management of maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz" will be jointly decided by Iran and Oman. The text explicitly uses the term "maritime services," indicating that the US effectively recognizes Iran's right to collect fees for maritime services provided to passing ships. According to the text, Iran only agrees to give ships a free passage period of 60 days. After the 60-day period, Iran plans to generate revenue from commercial ship passage through the Strait of Hormuz by providing navigation safety, navigation support, environmental protection, and insurance services, and use that revenue for national economic development. Iran has previously coordinated and consulted with Oman on this issue. However, there is currently no specific explanation regarding the 60-day free passage period. Individual stock news Musk once again "building castles in the air": SpaceX revenue in 2030 will exceed a trillion! Wall Street begins to re-evaluate this account. Elon Musk said on Sunday that his rocket company SpaceX could generate revenue of up to $1 trillion by 2030. Just two days before making this statement, the company had completed its IPO, with a market value exceeding $2 trillion. He replied to financial commentator Jon Erlichman on his social media platform X, saying, "If revenue in 2031 does not exceed $1 trillion, I will be surprised." It is understood that in 2025, SpaceX's revenue jumped from $14.02 billion the previous year to a dramatic increase to $18.67 billion, but the company's performance shifted from profit to loss, from a profit of $791 million to a net loss of $4.94 billion. Some Wall Street analysts are cautious about the company's growth prospects. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. previously projected that SpaceX's revenue in 2030 would exceed $470 billion, while Morgan Stanley estimated that its revenue would reach nearly $330 billion. Exaggerating safety to gain access? Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) accused of submitting "watered-down" FSD safety data to European regulators. In order to push for market access approval for its "Full Self-Driving (FSD)" system in Europe, Tesla, Inc. submitted self-aggregated safety data to regulators in Sweden and the Netherlands. However, several independent road safety researchers have indicated that this data is essentially misleading marketing material. A survey released last month revealed that over the past year, Tesla, Inc. CEO Elon Musk and company executives frequently quoted internal statistics, claiming that the safety performance of the FSD driver assistance system is ten times better than that of human drivers. However, upon verification, it was found that the statistics supporting Tesla, Inc.'s safety claimscontained several invalid data comparisons, thereby exaggerating its safety performance. Starbucks Corporation(SBUX.US) in South Korea faces significant drop in sales and CEO ousted after "tank day" marketing backfires: National stores close early for emergency history lessons. Following a promotion that severely touched on sensitive societal issues, Starbucks Corporation in South Korea announced that it would close all stores nationwide at 3 pm on June 22nd for history and social sensitivity training for all employees. This will be the first time since Starbucks Corporation entered South Korea in 1999 that it will close its stores across the country due to a company directive. This rare move comes after the uproar caused by last month's "tank day" promotion. Starbucks Corporation in South Korea launched a "tank" series travel cup discount promotion on the anniversary of the "5.18 Gwangju Democratization Movement", which was widely criticized for alluding to the painful history of the 1980 military government in South Korea using tanks to suppress Gwangju protesters. The event quickly sparked consumer boycotts and political criticism, with South Korean President Lee Jae-myung also publicly condemning it. Fox (FOXA.US) to acquire streaming platform Roku (ROKU.US) for $22 billion. Fox will acquire the streaming video platform Roku through a cash and stock deal at a price of $160 per share, with the transaction valuing Roku at an estimated $22 billion. The two companies said in a statement on Monday that the deal is expected to be completed in the first half of 2027, combining Fox's sports, news, and entertainment content resources with Roku's platform, which has over 100 million subscribers. According to the statement, Fox has obtained $12 billion in full bridge financing from Morgan Stanley's senior financing department to support the acquisition. Roku's streaming devices allow consumers to watch content from apps like Netflix and HBO Max on their TVs, turning any TV into a smart TV. Most of Roku's revenue comes from digital advertising sales and streaming service distribution business, with hardware device sales making up a smaller portion of revenue. Last year, its platform business generated $4.1 billion in revenue, accounting for 87.5% of the company's total revenue. Important economic data and events preview 20:30 (Beijing time): US June New York Fed Manufacturing Index. 21:15 (Beijing time): US May Industrial Production Month over Month.