New high since February! The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States has risen to 229,000, with hidden worries in the resilience of the labor market.

Data released by the US Department of Labor on Thursday shows that the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly climbed to the highest level since February, which may reflect the volatility commonly seen during school summer breaks and holidays. The data shows that for the week ending June 6, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits increased by 4,000 from the previous week to 229,000 people, with the median forecast of economists surveyed by the market being 220,000 people. The number of continuing claims for unemployment benefits, which reflects the total number of people receiving unemployment benefits, also rose to 1.8 million people the previous week. While the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the US unexpectedly rose to the highest level since February last week, the absolute value is still at a historically low level, indicating that while the labor market as a whole remains resilient, there are signs of marginal weakness accumulating. Economist Eliza Winger commented, "The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits remains low by historical standards and continues to be below the levels of the same period last year. Combined with the May non-farm employment report, the data indicates that the labor market momentum remains strong." The four-week moving average, which helps smooth out fluctuations, has been rising for three consecutive weeks. The number of continuing claims for unemployment benefits, which measures the total number of people receiving benefits, also increased by 24,000 people to 1.795 million for the week ending May 30. The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits also rose before seasonal adjustments, mainly driven by Pennsylvania, California, and Minnesota. Seasonal fluctuations and school holiday factors Analysts point out that part of the increase in initial claims data is due to seasonal factors. At the beginning of each summer, with the Memorial Day holiday (marking the unofficial start of the US summer) and schools going on break, some states allow non-teaching staff to apply for unemployment benefits during this period, leading to an increase in claims. The government's adjustment model used to remove seasonal fluctuations may not always fully capture these short-term changes. Even with recent increases, the current level of claims is still far below the average level of the five years before the pandemic. Economists believe that it will take several weeks of data to reassess the stability of the labor market. Resilience remains, but long-term unemployment worsens Overall, the labor market still shows resilience. Last week's government report showed strong job growth for the third consecutive month in May, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.3%, unchanged for the third consecutive month. Low layoff rates are an important support for job growth. However, concerns should not be overlooked. The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) survey shows that the employment index fell for the third consecutive month in May, with the percentage of business owners planning to add new positions in the next three months falling to a six-year low. Economists believe that policy uncertainties, including last year's import tariffs and the current US-Iran tensions, continue to dampen business hiring intentions. More worrying is that it is becoming increasingly difficult for the unemployed to find jobs. The employment report released last week showed that the number of long-term unemployed people who have been unemployed for 27 weeks or more in May reached the highest level since December 2021. The median duration of unemployment rose from 11.0 weeks in April to 11.6 weeks, the longest since November 2021. Meanwhile, there are increasing announcements of high-profile layoffs in the tech industry, with many companies explicitly citing artificial intelligence as one of the reasons for cutting white-collar positions. Economists point out that tech industry employees are usually eligible for severance pay, so they are less likely to immediately apply for unemployment benefits compared to other industries, which means that the actual employment pressure may be underestimated.