Target price surges 227%! JP Morgan shifts to neutral rating, Wall Street sparks "AI narrative" re-evaluation of Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US)

JPMorgan has upgraded Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) from "underweight" to "neutral" and raised its target price from $145 to a significant $475. This massive increase of 227.6% highlights JPMorgan's fundamental shift in outlook for this electric car manufacturer. Led by analyst Rajat Gupta, the JPMorgan analyst team emphasizes Tesla, Inc.'s unparalleled vertical integration capabilities in hardware and software. He stated, "We believe that this advantage has not been fully recognized and understood to some extent, but it does bring a huge head start advantage." The investment bank also predicts that Tesla, Inc.'s earnings per share are expected to reach a turning point after 2028, soaring from around $1.95 in 2026 to about $7.50 in 2030, nearly tripling. JPMorgan stated that the company's revenue is expected to more than double from around $95 billion in 2025 to approximately $203 billion in 2030, with nearly half of the growth coming from services as well as innovative businesses related to autonomous driving and Siasun Robot&Automation technology. Gupta valued Tesla, Inc. from five interconnected markets - automotive, energy storage, autonomous taxis (Robotaxi), humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation, and infrastructure licensing. By 2035, the total addressable market size (TAM) of these markets is estimated to be around $39 trillion. However, JPMorgan also warned that execution risks remain high, especially in regulatory approval, safety verification, and scaling new technologies for mass production. Polarization on Wall Street As the second quarter begins, Wall Street's views on Tesla, Inc. are showing clear polarization, but overall sentiment is undergoing a dramatic reevaluation shifting from a narrative dominated by "automobile manufacturer" to "AI and autonomous driving." With Tesla, Inc. accelerating the production of fully autonomous driving (FSD), autonomous taxis, and the establishment of artificial intelligence infrastructure, the overall consensus rating on Wall Street is currently "hold." However, due to the wide variations in the profit margins of core automotive business and AI valuation weighting models among various investment banks, the target prices vary greatly, generally ranging from $330 to $600. Represented by Wedbush Securities, staunch bulls are leading the most optimistic sentiment on Wall Street. Analyst Dan Ives maintained the highest target price on the street at $600 (corresponding to a market value expectation of over $2 trillion), emphasizing that investors are severely underestimating the "historic AI transformation" that Tesla, Inc. is undergoing and optimistically predicting that autonomous taxi services will be accelerated in over 30 cities in the U.S. by 2026. At the same time, Piper Sandler also gave a target price of $500, based on similarly high confidence in Tesla, Inc.'s commercialization potential for autonomous driving. TD Cowen closely followed suit, assessing the Cybercab's ultra-low operating costs of only about $0.30 per mile and raised the target price to $519, bullish on its long-term disruptive potential in the shared mobility market. However, the moderate and bearish factions focusing on immediate financial pressures. Morgan Stanley, while highly recognizing the long-term value of its humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation (Optimus) and AI, only maintains an "equal weight" rating given the intensifying competition in the global electric vehicle market and the slowing pace of delivery growth, with a target price set at $425. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.'s view is even more cautious, with analyst Mark Delaney pointing out that Tesla, Inc.'s capital expenditures in 2026 are expected to soar to over $20 billion, and the massive investment in AI training capabilities may directly result in negative free cash flow for the year, thus setting the target price at $405. Is it an automaker or an underestimated AI entry point? Overall, the Wall Street views from May to June 2026 can be summarized as follows: the bulls consider Tesla, Inc. to be the "most underestimated target" in the AI revolution, believing that autonomous driving and Siasun Robot&Automation business will reshape its valuation framework; the bears are concerned about execution risks, regulatory hurdles, and high valuation multiples. JPMorgan's upgrade from "underweight" to "neutral" and a significant increase in the target price to $475 somewhat represents a shift in the middle ground - recognizing Tesla, Inc.'s unique advantages in vertical integration and AI, but remaining cautious about execution risks such as regulatory approval, safety verification, and scaling new technologies. In the next 6 to 12 months, the regulatory progress of Robotaxi, the ramp-up of Cybercab production, and the commercialization path of Optimus will be key variables in determining whether Tesla, Inc. can deliver on its AI valuation premium.