In April, the number of job vacancies in the United States increased significantly to the highest level in nearly two years, supporting the hawkish expectations of the Federal Reserve on the resilience of the labor market.

Despite the pressure on business operations due to the rising energy costs caused by the US-Iraq war, the US labor market continues to show strong resilience. Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday showed a significant increase in job vacancies in April to the highest level in nearly two years, while layoffs decreased, indicating a stabilizing demand for labor by businesses. The data showed that job vacancies in the US rose to 7.62 million in April, far exceeding the revised 6.89 million in March and significantly surpassing economists' expectations of 6.87 million. This is the highest level of job vacancies since 2023. In terms of industry distribution, the increase in job vacancies in this round mostly came from the professional and business services sector, where recruitment demand has significantly rebounded. At the same time, the number of new hires in the US in April decreased to 5.12 million, partially reversing the sharp increase in March; layoffs also decreased to 1.69 million, indicating that there was no large-scale job cutting by businesses. This report further confirms that the US job market is gradually stabilizing after experiencing near-zero growth in 2025. Although job vacancies are still far below the peak levels seen after the economic reopening following the COVID-19 pandemic, the stability in labor demand may weaken market expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. In recent months, more Federal Reserve officials have begun discussing the possibility of raising interest rates again to address the ongoing inflationary pressures. However, concerns about the economic outlook among businesses and consumers have not completely dissipated. According to a recent survey by the World Large Enterprises Federation, the proportion of consumers in May who believe that "jobs are plentiful" hit the lowest level since 2021. In addition, due to the continued impact of inflationary pressures, recruitment plans for small businesses in April remained subdued, reflecting a cautious attitude towards expansion by businesses. The "quit rate," which reflects employees' willingness to leave their jobs voluntarily, decreased to 1.9% in April, remaining at the lowest level since 2020. This indicator is often seen as an important gauge of workers' confidence in the job market. The decrease in the quit rate indicates that employees are more inclined to retain their current job positions in the current economic environment. The report also shows that the "job vacancies-to-unemployed ratio," which the Federal Reserve closely monitors, has essentially remained at a 1:1 level, indicating an overall balance in the labor supply-demand relationship. In contrast, this ratio peaked at 2:1 during the tightest labor market period in 2022. Recent initial jobless claims data also show that there are no widespread signs of layoffs in the US labor market. Despite well-known companies such as Meta Platforms (META.US), Starbucks Corporation (SBUX.US), Microsoft Corporation (MSFT.US) under LinkedIn, and Walmart Inc. (WMT.US) announcing layoff plans, the overall job market remains relatively stable. Market attention is now turning to the US non-farm payroll report for May, which will be released this Friday. According to the median expectation of economists surveyed by the media, the US non-farm payroll employment for May is expected to increase by 85,000. Meanwhile, the job posting index released by the job site Indeed has remained relatively unchanged since the end of March, indirectly reflecting the overall stable recruitment demand by businesses. Analysts believe that if the labor market continues to show resilience in the coming months, and inflation remains high, the Federal Reserve's room for interest rate cuts this year may be further limited, and there may even be a possibility of reconsidering the option of raising interest rates. The performance of the labor market will continue to be a key factor influencing the direction of US monetary policy.