Not just in the chip sector! Goldman Sachs predicts: The AI infrastructure wave is unfolding on a large scale, with total spending expected to reach $800 billion by the end of the year.

The dividends of the artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure boom are no longer limited to a few semiconductor stocks such as NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US), Micron Technology, Inc. (MU.US), and Intel Corporation (INTC.US). Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. indicates that this wave is reshaping the American business investment cycle. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. released a report on Monday, raising its forecast for U.S. corporate investment growth rate to 7.8% by 2026, up from the previous 6.5%. The upward revision in the forecast is driven by strong growth in AI-related spending: annualized spending in the first quarter reached $650 billion, with a projected total exceeding $800 billion by the end of the year. AI capital expenditures have become a macroeconomic force Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. economist Elsie Peng stated in the report, "As companies accelerate infrastructure development, AI-related spending will continue to drive growth in equipment and construction investments by 2026." The impact of this spending wave goes far beyond the semiconductor sector. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. economists noted that investments in AI are flowing into areas such as servers, semiconductors, storage, power infrastructure, data centers, software, and research and development. Peng said, "Our analysis shows that AI-related spending will boost the growth rate of actual capital expenditures by about 3.3 percentage points in 2026." However, the report points out that the direct impact of AI spending on the U.S. GDP growth rate remains relatively limited. The report explains that there are still some omissions in the official GDP statistics related to semiconductor investments, creating a gap. Peng added, "We estimate that AI-related spending will boost actual GDP growth by 0.3 percentage points in 2026, but it will only be reflected as 0.1 percentage point in the official GDP statistics." This is mainly due to the heavy reliance on imported equipment. New legislation adds fuel to the AI investment frenzy Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. also mentioned that the effects of the new tax incentives in the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA)" are gradually reflecting in investment data. The act expanded the scope of deductible expenses, and the bank expects it to boost the growth rate of capital expenditures by about 3 percentage points in 2026, with manufacturing, transportation, and industrial sectors benefiting the most. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. stated, "We and other forecasting agencies all expect that strong AI spending combined with new tax incentives will support steady growth in capital expenditures in 2026, and preliminary data also aligns with this judgment." At the same time, the two main factors hindering investment in 2025 are starting to weaken. Affected by the "Inflation Reduction Act" and the "Chip Act," the slowdown in manufacturing construction investment had previously impacted overall growth, but this year its drag on growth will significantly diminish. Additionally, the uncertainty caused by tariffs is also easing. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. estimates that the tariff factor in 2025 reduced the growth rate of capital expenditures by about 1.5 percentage points, and this drag will narrow to 0.7 percentage points in 2026. Rising oil prices do not hinder the investment cycle Due to the situation in the Middle East, oil prices have recently surged. However, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. believes that the rising energy costs will not significantly hinder the current investment wave. Peng wrote, "We expect that the increase in oil prices will not have a substantial impact on overall capital expenditure growth." The industries mainly affected by the surge in oil prices are aviation, trucking, and rail transport. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. predicts that the drag of high oil prices on overall U.S. capital expenditure will be only about 0.1 to 0.3 percentage points. Tech giants are betting big on AI with debt, but market concerns persist Under the AI wave, tech giants are collectively embarking on an unprecedented "arms race" of capital, with hidden risks emerging, and market concerns about long-term returns and financial health remain unresolved. The total expected capital expenditures for 2026 by the four major cloud service providers, Alphabet (GOOGL.US), Meta (META.US), Microsoft Corporation (MSFT.US), and Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN.US), have soared to $725 billion, equivalent to the annual GDP of countries like Greece and Portugal combined. Behind the huge investments is a collective "bleeding" of free cash flow. Morgan Stanley forecasts that Amazon.com, Inc.'s free cash flow will turn negative $17 billion in 2026; Pivotal Research predicts that Alphabet's free cash flow will plummet from $73.3 billion in 2025 to $8.2 billion in 2026; Barclays PLC Sponsored ADR estimates that Meta and Microsoft Corporation's free cash flow will decrease by 90% and 28% in 2026, respectively. The sharp contraction of cash flow raises questions about the sustainability of the high-investment model. To fill the funding gap, tech giants are issuing bonds intensively, with global AI-related debt accumulating to about $300 billion, and investor enthusiasm showing signs of cooling. Deeper concerns arise from the uncertainty of AI investment and returns. The market still has doubts about the long-term prospects of this AI gamble, and the future cash flow and changes in capital structure of tech giants are worth continuous monitoring.