Starship V3's first flight test was successful on the eve of its IPO, marking a crucial milestone for SpaceX's trillion-dollar space AI empire.

In the sensitive window period before the upcoming initial public offering (IPO), SpaceX's upgraded version of Starship (Starship V3) completed a crucial test flight on Friday local time with "a mix of beauty and flaw": the mission successfully deployed a simulated satellite, but the super heavy booster lost control and disintegrated during recovery. This flight is not only a technical validation, but also directly related to the vision outlined in the company's prospectus, a vision of a star chain and artificial intelligence (AI) empire worth as much as $26.5 trillion. Test flight with twists and turns: Starship deploys payload into orbit, booster loses control and disintegrates On Friday afternoon local time, the giant rocket composed of the super heavy booster and Starship spacecraft roared into the sky from the Starship Base in Texas. A few minutes into the flight, the first and second stages separated as planned, but the super heavy booster failed to execute the expected ignition and braking, losing control and falling into the Gulf of Mexico. Before splashing down, SpaceX lost communication with the booster, indicating that it had disintegrated. Despite the setbacks, the performance of the Starship spacecraft still demonstrated its robust design redundancy. During the ascent, one of the six engines on the spacecraft shut down prematurely, but the spacecraft still successfully entered space. The highlight of this mission was the first deployment of 20 simulated Starlink satellites and 2 dedicated satellites for testing new hardware and scan heat shields. As the deployment footage came in, the control center erupted with cheers of "USA." SpaceX employee Kate Tess exclaimed during the live broadcast, "To see this scene in real time from space is simply unbelievable." Subsequently, Starship re-entered the atmosphere at a speed of about 26,300 km/h, its heat shield withstood the test, and the spacecraft eventually successfully splashed down into the sea, although there was an explosion afterwards that went beyond expectations for recovery. IPO documents reveal: Launch business loses $3 billion annually but is the cornerstone of a trillion-dollar ecosystem This test flight comes at a crucial time for SpaceX as it prepares for an IPO. The company is seeking financing of up to $75 billion, with a target valuation that could reach $2 trillion. However, the prospectus reveals a brutal reality: the launch business that has established SpaceX's dominant position generated revenue of only about $4.1 billion last year, and after investing $3 billion in Starship development, this business segment actually operates at a net loss. Yet, this has not shaken the market's approval of its trillion-dollar valuation logic. The prospectus shows that launch is just SpaceX's "moat," and the real money comes from its satellite internet business and future AI computing business. By 2025, Starlink's revenue has soared to $11.4 billion, far surpassing the launch business. This model of "feeding the ecosystem with launches," as early SpaceX investor and Space Capital CEO Chad Anderson puts it, "You absolutely cannot see this company as just a launch company. Launch is a competitive advantage that can drive real big business." The prospectus also plainly states, "Our ability to execute growth strategies is highly dependent on Starship." Profit model transformation: From "free shipping" to dominating space data centers SpaceX is redefining the profit ceiling of commercial spaceflight. Falcon 9 rocket, with its reusable technology, has almost monopolized the global heavy launch market, but its biggest customer is SpaceX itself nearly 75% of the launch missions in 2025 involve the company's own Starlink satellites. SpaceX President Shotwell once said, "Starlink has created a huge demand for Falcon 9." However, the capacity of the launch market is limited. To support the $2 trillion valuation, Musk's ambitions have turned to space AI data centers. SpaceX plans to deploy up to 1 million satellites in Earth orbit with Starship to build a computing network. This not only solves the problem of insufficient power in ground data centers but also enables SpaceX to compete against traditional cloud computing giants like Alphabet Inc. Class C (GOOGL.US) and Meta (META.US). "When we evaluate new investments, we not only look for companies that can innovate and dominate existing markets but also get excited about those creating entirely new markets," said Shahin Farshchi, a partner at Lux Capital. "And what SpaceX has achieved in its early days has greatly expanded the launch business." Analysts point out that although the launch business is lagging financially, this is the core barrier that competitors find difficult to replicate. Even Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN.US) with over $11 billion spent on launch services still struggles to get its satellites into orbit on time. Chris Quilty, President of consulting firm Quilty Space, bluntly stated, "Even after spending so much money, they still can't get their satellites up there." With the successful completion of the most critical payload deployment test by Starship V3, SpaceX is accelerating towards the critical point of "normalizing Starship." However, the risk warning in the prospectus also warns that delays or failures of Starship are the company's primary risk. Before fully possessing the ability to refuel in orbit and achieve high-frequency repeat launches, Musk's two-part "Mars colonization" and "space AI" still need to progress through explosions and trial and error. "The Starship is a key factor in the company's future performance," said Anderson of Space Capital. "Its potential delays or failures are the company's number one risk."