Trump sends signal of easing + Oil tanker passage with double pressure International oil prices fall sharply by 3% towards the largest drop in two weeks.

International oil prices continued to fall on Wednesday, with both WTI and Brent crude oil prices continuing to decline, dropping more than 3% at one point during the day. Prior to this, U.S. President Trump stated that the Iran conflict would end "very soon", triggering traders to reassess the geopolitical situation. However, market analysts have warned that the risk of supply shortages has not been eliminated. As of the time of writing, Brent crude oil futures prices fell by 2.60% to $108.39 per barrel, while U.S. WTI futures prices fell by 2.66% to $101.38 per barrel. Both major benchmark crude oil contracts are expected to see their largest single-day declines in almost two weeks. The shift in market sentiment was driven by Trump's latest remarks. During an event at the White House, he expressed his desire to "quickly" end the Iran conflict, stating that Iran "urgently wants to reach an agreement." However, less than a day earlier, he had warned that if Iran refused America's peace terms, the U.S. "might have to hit them hard again." This inconsistent rhetoric has heightened uncertainty among traders regarding the direction of the situation. Another factor putting pressure on oil prices is a slight improvement in the situation at the Strait of Hormuz. According to reports, three super oil tankers carrying around 6 million barrels of Middle Eastern crude oil are attempting to cross the strait after waiting for more than two months, to transport the oil to Asian markets. In addition, the Iranian navy stated that in the past 24 hours, 26 vessels including oil tankers, container ships, and other commercial vessels have passed through the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian coordination and security. This development is seen as a minor bearish signal in the market. UBS commodity analyst Giovanni Staunovo stated that news of more oil tankers successfully crossing the strait could be interpreted as a negative factor for oil prices. However, the current number of oil tankers passing through the strait is still far below the pre-war level of around 130 ships per day, and the core contradiction of the supply interruption has not been resolved. Analysts warn that the supply crisis is far from over While oil prices have seen a short-term decline, there have been strong warnings from investment banks and analytical institutes regarding the supply outlook. Citigroup analysts expect Brent crude oil prices to rise to $120 per barrel in the short term, believing that the market "underestimates the risk of long-term supply interruptions." Wood Mackenzie's estimate is even more shocking, believing that if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed by the end of this year, oil prices could reach close to $200 per barrel. PVM analysts also point out that global oil inventories may fall to "extremely low levels," and believe that current market participants are relatively indifferent (even complacent) to the impact of the conflict. LSEG research analyst Emril Jamil believes that even if a peace agreement is reached, as supply is unlikely to immediately recover to pre-war levels, oil prices "still have the potential to rise in the short term." Currently, the 12-week conflict has severely disrupted the global energy arteries, forcing countries to take measures to address the situation. Reports indicate that out of concerns about high oil prices, the UK has quietly relaxed some sanctions against Russia, allowing imports of diesel and aviation fuel refined using Russian crude oil. Meanwhile, data shows that Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports and production in March have both dropped to record lows. In the United States, White House officials are adamant in not restricting oil exports, even as domestic inventories are sharply decreasing. Industry reports show that U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 9.1 million barrels last week, which would be the largest weekly decline since September last year if the official data released later on Wednesday confirms it. Additionally, it has been reported that the U.S. Navy has seized an oil tanker linked to Iran in the Indian Ocean. On the geopolitical front, NATO is discussing the possibility of providing escort for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz if it remains closed until early July. A previous survey by Goldman Sachs showed that investors are increasingly pricing in the long-term closure of the strait, which means that NATO's intervention could lead to a faster-than-expected recovery in supply. It is worth noting that a significant volume of trading activity was seen in the Brent crude oil options market on Tuesday, with a massive put option position equivalent to 134 million barrels of crude oil being traded, causing a stir in the already highly vigilant market.