Polymarket enters private equity market predicting trading on OpenAI's and Anthropic's valuation and IPO as betting targets.

Polymarket is further expanding into the private market prediction trading field, this time targeting AI unicorn companies that are "well-known but difficult to invest directly in" for ordinary investors. The company has recently launched a series of prediction contracts related to key milestones of private companies, covering valuation changes, IPO timing, and secondary market trading dynamics, involving companies such as OpenAI and Anthropic. At the same time, Nasdaq Private Market will serve as the exclusive settlement data provider for these contracts, responsible for providing relevant data to determine the contract results. These new products may address a major pain point for ordinary investors, which is the inability to participate in the value growth of star private companies. According to Nasdaq data, there are currently more than 1600 "unicorn" companies worldwide with valuations exceeding $1 billion. However, most private tech companies often create significant brand influence and valuation growth before going public, and ordinary investors usually cannot participate directly. Traditionally, only institutional investors, qualified investors, or individuals with special resources could invest in these companies through private financing or secondary market investments. Now, Polymarket's new prediction contracts allow traders to bet on whether a specific event in the private market will occur, but do not involve actual equity ownership or voting rights. For example, the platform has already launched several popular contracts, including: whether OpenAI will complete an IPO with a valuation exceeding $1 trillion by 2027; whether Anthropic will reach a valuation of at least $500 billion by 2026; and whether the valuation of Anthropic will surpass OpenAI at some point this year. It is worth noting that this is also the first time Nasdaq Private Market has publicly released some private market valuation data for free, whereas previously such data typically required paid subscriptions. Currently, Kalshi also offers prediction contracts related to IPO events of private companies, but it settles based on SEC filings, company announcements, and news reports from various sources, without involving private company valuation predictions. Nasdaq Private Market data shows that trading in the private market related to Anthropic has seen remarkable growth in recent years. As of May 5, the platform's estimated Anthropic price reached $477.02, representing a more than 1500% increase. At the same time, the platform data shows that the highest bid price for Anthropic is $260.80, the lowest ask price is $188.50, and the most recent transaction price is $234. These prediction markets not only allow ordinary investors to participate in the value creation of the private market earlier, but they may also provide new market sentiment references for institutional investors. Due to the private market financing rounds, secondary trading prices, and IPO timing information being more dispersed and opaque compared to the public market, prediction markets could become a new tool for measuring the market heat and valuation expectations of popular AI companies in the future.