Morning Meeting Highlights of Securities Firms | Computing power remains the main trend

Yesterday, the market fluctuated and adjusted, with the three major indexes opening low, rallying high, and then falling back. The turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.89 trillion, a decrease of 450.5 billion from the previous trading day. In terms of sectors, oil and gas stocks strengthened against the trend, storage chip concepts quickly rose, and the Siasun Robot&Automation concept performed actively. By the close, the Shanghai Composite fell by 0.09%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.2%, and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.36%. At today's brokerage morning meeting, China Securities Co.,Ltd. emphasized that computing power remains the main theme; Huatai stated that there is a vast space for the localization of semiconductor materials in China, and leading companies are expected to benefit fully; CICC believes that it may be difficult for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year. China Securities Co.,Ltd.: Computing power remains the main theme In terms of industry layout, computing power remains the main theme. After a short-term suppression of domestic computing power, it is expected to be quickly replenished by funds, and it is spreading from core hardware storage chips, optical modules, PCB to liquid cooling, computing power leasing, power supply, and other "computing power+" links; benefiting from the explosive growth of demand for AI computing centers, the lithium battery industry is ushering in a new structural incremental demand, with representative stocks showing outstanding performance in the first quarter, and the sector's upward momentum continuing to extend to the entire industry chain; and recently in China, with the release of six fixed-line policies, infrastructure and power grid construction are significantly benefiting. Huatai: Vast space for the localization of semiconductor materials in China, leading companies are expected to benefit fully Global semiconductor material suppliers are mainly from Japan, South Korea, Europe, and the United States, with a vast space for localization in China. The localization rate of high-end photoresist in China is low; the localization rate of cleaning materials is about 15%; the localization rate of electronic special gases is about 30%; the localization rate of high-end sputtering targets is about 5%; the localization rate of wet electronic chemicals is about 44%; the localization rate of 5N grade high-purity alumina is about 15%. Huatai believes that the expansion of storage plants and wafer factories in China is expected to accelerate the localization of semiconductor materials, and leading companies are expected to benefit fully. CICC: The Federal Reserve may find it difficult to cut interest rates this year Recently, multiple U.S. inflation data have exceeded expectations, while the job market has stabilized. Bonds have been sold off, and market concerns about inflation continue to rise. At the same time, there has been no substantive progress in the US-Iran peace negotiations, and the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, with upward risks to energy prices being hard to diminish. Under the benchmark situation, we expect U.S. PCE inflation to remain above 3.5% for the whole year, with core PCE inflation above 3%, both significantly higher than the Federal Reserve's policy target of 2%. In this context, the Federal Reserve's policy stance will shift to a more cautious direction, making it difficult for them to further cut interest rates this year (previously expected in the fourth quarter). With the new chairman, Powell, taking office, establishing policy credibility will be a top priority, and timely communication of a clear anti-inflation signal to the market is not only necessary but also essential for stabilizing expectations. For the market, this implies an increasing probability of a marginal tightening of U.S. dollar liquidity, and assets driven solely by liquidity may continue to be under pressure. This article is reprinted from "Cai Lian Society". Editor: Xu Wenqiang.