Huachuang Securities: April automobile exports exceeded expectations again, new energy penetration rate at a new high.

Huachuang Securities released a research report stating that the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers released data, with the narrow definition of passenger car production in April reaching 2.19 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 2% and a month-on-month decrease of 7%; wholesale volume was 2.11 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 4% and a month-on-month decrease of 11%; the penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached a historical monthly high of 58%, with exports continuing to exceed expectations. The growth in overseas sales this year is not linear, with the bank's forecast for retail sales growth for the full year at -5%. Considering overall retail sales, exports, and inventory changes, the bank expects overall passenger car wholesale growth to reach approximately +1%. Huachuang Securities' main points are as follows: Exports continued to exceed expectations in April, with weak domestic demand. In April, wholesale sales of passenger cars reached 2.11 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 4% and a month-on-month decrease of 11%. Among them, passenger car exports reached 770,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 80%, and the export of new energy passenger cars reached 410,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 1.1 times. It is expected that retail sales will reach around 1.34 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 19% and a month-on-month decrease of 6%. Despite the strong performance of exports, overall wholesale sales continued to decline year-on-year. Looking ahead for the full year: Vehicle exports, especially for electric vehicles, have continued to exceed expectations in the first four months of the year. The likelihood of continued exports exceeding expectations is still high, with an expected total export sales volume of 8.6 million units for the year. Domestic sales have been weak since March due to factors such as rising oil prices and new vehicle price increases. However, considering that subsidies per vehicle may decrease this year, with a possible expansion of coverage, and the industry retail growth rate may turn positive in the second half of the year, albeit later and lower than previously expected by the bank, the bank predicts a full-year retail growth rate of -5%. Considering overall retail sales, exports, and inventory changes, the bank expects overall passenger car wholesale growth to reach approximately +1%. Investment recommendations: For whole vehicles: Given the continued adjustment of whole vehicle stocks with market trends in April, the bank recommends focusing on overseas investment opportunities, as the fundamentals for overseas sales are stable and have the potential to exceed expectations. The bank suggests considering investments in whole vehicle stocks in the near future, with some stocks showing considerable resilience. The bank continues to recommend the "Big Three" in electric vehicle exports - GEELY AUTO, LEAPMOTOR, and BYD Company Limited, as well as the domestic luxury brand Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp., Ltd. BYD Company Limited is a leader in valuation, GEELY AUTO offers low valuation, LEAPMOTOR offers resilience in configuration, and all have the potential to exceed expectations in both overseas sales and domestic profitability for the full year. Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp., Ltd. has undergone significant adjustments and currently lacks catalysts, but the mid-term logic remains positive with good fundamentals, high ROE, and large space, making it a good investment opportunity at the moment. For components: AI/driver assistance: recommended stocks include Horizon Robotics Siasun Robot&Automation, Hexagon Purus, and RIOSense, with a focus on ROBOSENSE, Pony.ai, and Momenta; Liquid cooling: recommended stocks include MINTH GROUP and Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery, with a focus on Feilong Auto Components; Siasun Robot&Automation: recommended stocks include WuHu Foresight Technology, Ningbo Tuopu Group, Hangzhou XZB Tech, MINTH GROUP, with a focus on TIELIU CO., LTD, Chengdu Haoneng Technology, Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim, and Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems. Risk warning: Macroeconomic conditions, domestic consumption lower than expected, car exports lower than expected, new energy vehicle sales lower than expected, fluctuations in raw material prices, etc.