Stalemate in US-Iran negotiations combined with the termination of Russia's oil exemption, Brent crude oil rises above $110.

On Monday morning Asian session, Brent crude oil broke through $110 per barrel, while WTI crude oil reached $107 per barrel. This is the third consecutive trading day of international oil price increases - driven not only by the ongoing shipping crisis in the Strait of Hormuz for over a month, but also by the comprehensive deadlock in the US-Iran ceasefire negotiations on core issues, the expiration of Russian oil sanctions exemptions, and the heightened geopolitical risk premium following drone attacks on Gulf energy facilities over the weekend. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil rose nearly 1.75% to $107.26 per barrel; Brent crude oil rose 1.71% to $111.13 per barrel, hitting the highest level since May 5 during trading. Both contracts recorded weekly gains of over 7% last week. The catalysts driving this round of increases are intense and cumulative. First, over the weekend, the UAE's only nuclear power plant was attacked by drones - three drones entered from the western border of the UAE with Saudi Arabia, two were intercepted, and the third hit a generator outside the Baraka nuclear power plant's security zone and caused a fire. Although no nuclear radiation leaks or casualties occurred, the UAE Foreign Ministry classified the incident as a "baseless terrorist attack" and stated that the UAE had the "full right" to respond; Saudi Arabia also intercepted three drones entering from Iraqi airspace and warned of taking "necessary action" in response to any sovereignty violation. Second, the Trump administration officially allowed the expiration of the exemption for sanctions on Russian oil shipping over the weekend without issuing any renewal notice, ending the two-month exemption period. This decision "effectively temporarily ends the brief period of relief for certain Russian energy sanctions by the United States." Although countries dependent on energy imports like India and Indonesia continued to lobby for an extension of the exemption, as of the time of writing, no renewal notice had been posted on the US Treasury Department website. Third, and more fundamentally, the US-Iran ceasefire talks are in a deep deadlock. It has been over five weeks since the ceasefire on April 7, with little progress on key issues such as uranium enrichment disposal, sanctions relief, war reparations, and control of the Strait of Hormuz. Trump stated explicitly on social media on Sunday: "For Iran, time is passing very quickly, they'd better move quickly, otherwise they will have nothing." He added that the US hopes to reach an agreement, but Iran has not reached the level they hoped for. Faced with a systematic tightening of supply, major investment banks have recently raised oil price expectations. Goldman Sachs raised its year-end target for Brent crude oil to $115 per barrel, while JPMorgan predicted that oil prices could surpass $150 per barrel in the extreme case of continued blockage in the Strait of Hormuz. Market analysts point out that the next key variable oil price increase will face is a meeting on Tuesday between Trump and his national security team. According to previous reports, Trump is expected to discuss options for military action against Iran at the meeting. Negotiation deadlock: A "impossible equation" of five to five Iran's Fars News Agency exposed the five core conditions of each side on the 17th, revealing the fundamental problem of the negotiation deadlock - the positions of both sides on each condition are almost mutually exclusive. The five conditions proposed by the US includes: not paying war reparations to Iran; requiring Iran to transfer about 400 kilograms of enriched uranium to the US; allowing Iran to retain only one nuclear facility to operate; refusing to unfreeze Iran's overseas assets; all ceasefire lines must be based on conducting negotiations. Analysts pointed out that the US proposals "do not focus on fundamentally resolving the dispute, but try to achieve goals that were not achieved in military actions through negotiations." The Iranian side has retaliated with five "confidence-building" conditions: a comprehensive cessation of conflicts (especially in the direction of Lebanon); lifting sanctions on Iran; unfreezing Iran's assets; compensating for war losses; recognizing Iran's sovereignty in the affairs related to the Strait of Hormuz. An official familiar with the negotiations revealed on the 18th that the US and Iran "are at a deadlock without making any substantive progress," marking a major shift in US goals in the conflict towards seeking a diplomatic solution. Earlier, the media revealed a more detailed "14-point plan" by the US, with key demands including Iran pausing uranium enrichment activities for up to 20 years, dismantling some nuclear facilities, transferring or diluting highly enriched uranium, the US would be willing to lift some sanctions and release a small amount of frozen funds as a trade-off. Iran's response to this was deemed by Trump on May 10 as "completely unacceptable," and on the 11th, he further called Iran's ceasefire proposal "garbage," stating that the current ceasefire status is "extremely fragile" and sustained only by a "life support system." Trump accused Iran of backpedaling in negotiations: during negotiations to reach the latest ceasefire agreement, Iran had informed the US that Tehran was willing to relinquish enriched uranium reserves, and the US must personally remove these reserves, but the latest ceasefire proposal by Iran did not include the aforementioned agreement. Chairman of the Iran Parliament National Security Committee Ibrahim Azziz stated on Saturday that Tehran had developed a new mechanism for managing shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and will soon announce a designated shipping route plan. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei declared on the same day that the US and Israel are attempting to shift the responsibility for the turmoil in the energy markets to Iran, when the true reason is their "baseless military aggression against Iran."