Preview of US Stock Market | The three major stock index futures rose together, with the non-farm data set to make a big impact tonight.
On May 8th (Friday) before the US stock market opened, the futures of the three major US stock indexes all rose.
1. Before the US stock market opens on May 8th (Friday), the futures of the three major US stock indexes all rose, with the Dow Jones futures up 0.34%, the S&P 500 index futures up 0.51%, and the Nasdaq 100 index futures up 0.77%.
2. As of the time of writing, the Germany DAX index fell 0.99%, the UK FTSE 100 index fell 0.17%, the France CAC40 index fell 0.83%, and the European Stoxx 50 index fell 0.87%.
3. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil fell 0.08% to $94.73 per barrel. Brent crude oil rose 0.33% to $100.39 per barrel.
Market News
April non-farm payrolls preview: Appear to slow down on the surface but the core remains tight, wage increases strengthen expectations of no interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year. The market generally expects an addition of 62,000 jobs in April, with the unemployment rate staying at 4.3%; wage increases are expected to rise to 0.3% month-on-month, further solidifying the expectation that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates this year. It is expected that job growth in the United States in April will slow down compared to the previous month, mainly due to the seasonal boost from warmer weather diminishing, and the impact of returning medical workers from strike. However, this does not mean that there has been a substantial change in the labor market fundamentals - the market expects the unemployment rate to remain stable at 4.3%. The highly anticipated April non-farm payroll report by the US Department of Labor, to be released on Friday, is expected to show an acceleration in wage growth for the month.
Two Iranian oil tankers were attacked near the Strait of Hormuz, and the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs strongly condemned the US military attack on the Iranian oil tankers. Two radio recordings provided by stranded seafarers near the Strait of Hormuz on May 8th showed that two oil tankers were attacked on that day and requested assistance. According to the ship names "SEASTARIII" and "SEVDA" mentioned in the recordings, both ships are Iranian oil tankers. Analysts pointed out that the related recordings were possibly reports between Iranian personnel about the attack on the ships and calls for nearby Iranian forces to assist. On May 8th, the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement condemning the US military's attacks on two Iranian oil tankers and multiple locations along the Strait of Hormuz, violating the ceasefire agreement. It emphasized that the Iranian Armed Forces are determined to defend Iran's territorial integrity, independence, and national sovereignty, and oppose any aggression.
Anthropic takes it to the next level! Rumored to raise $50 billion this summer, with a valuation close to a trillion dollars overtaking OpenAI. In the race for the pole position in the artificial intelligence (AI) track, Anthropic seems to have surpassed OpenAI. According to reports, Anthropic is considering raising hundreds of billions of dollars this summer to significantly expand its computing capacity, with a valuation approaching $1 trillion, surpassing OpenAI - the company that just raised a record $122 billion in March with a valuation of $852 billion. Three sources familiar with the matter said that Anthropic is expected to raise as much as $50 billion in this round of financing. The transaction is likely to be completed within two months.
Bank of America: US stocks and gold are heading for a rare "fourth consecutive rise", material stocks may become the next main trend in the bull market. Bank of America Corp's renowned strategist Michael Hartnett stated that US stocks and gold are heading for their fourth consecutive year of double-digit gains, a trend that is extremely rare in history. Hartnett's team pointed out that the S&P 500 index is expected to achieve an annualized return of 20%, while gold is expected to see a 30% increase. They stated that for the stock market, such long-term "grand-scale" rises have only occurred during the Second World War, the post-war years of peace, and the bubble period from 1995 to 1999. Gold's long-term continuous rise occurred during the stagflation period of the 1970s.
AI bull market has reached 60%? Legendary investor who accurately predicted "Black Monday" signals that it can continue for one or two more years. One of the most closely watched macro investors, Tudor Investment Corporation founder and chief investment officer Paul Tudor Jones dropped a bombshell in an interview. This legendary hedge fund manager, who rose to fame for successfully predicting and profiting from the 1987 "Black Monday" crash, is taking history as a guide and has provided a bullish and cautionary AI bull market timeline: the current artificial intelligence-driven US stock bull market still has about one to two more years of upward potential, and he has recently increased his holdings of AI-related stocks through a "basket"; but if the market rises by another 40%, the valuation expansion will create conditions for a "suffocating" pullback.
Individual Stock News
Microchip Technology Incorporated (MCHP.US) Q4 revenue increased by 35% year-on-year, with Q1 performance guidance well above expectations. Microchip Technology Incorporated saw its Q4 revenue increase by 35% to $13.1 billion, exceeding analysts' average expectations of $12.6 billion; adjusted earnings per share were $0.57, higher than analysts' average expectation of $0.50; adjusted gross margin was 61.6%, also higher than analysts' average expectation of 61%. Looking ahead, Microchip Technology Incorporated expects its Q1 revenue for fiscal year 2027 to be between $14.4 billion and $14.7 billion, well above the market's expectation of $13.4 billion; it expects adjusted gross margin to be between 62.3% and 63.3%, compared to the market's expectation of 61.6%. The company also revealed that its board of directors has approved a quarterly dividend of $0.455 per share for common shareholders.
Betting on breaking into the entertainment industry! Sony (SONY.US) sees a sharp 63% drop in Q4 net profit, but offers double-digit growth guidance for the new fiscal year. In the three months ending in March this year, Sony's net profit plummeted by 63% to 83.12 billion yen, significantly lower than the average analyst forecast of 202.24 billion yen. Quarterly revenue increased by 8.3% to 3.036 trillion yen. For the full year, Sony expects its operating profit for the fiscal year ending in 2025 to increase by 13.4% to 1.45 trillion yen, but this figure is still below the market's expectation of 1.56 trillion yen. Sales increased by 3.7% to 12.48 trillion yen, while net profit decreased by 3.4% to 1.03 trillion yen. Looking forward, the gaming business is expected to follow a typical "reduced revenue, increased profits" pattern. Sony expects this sector to see a 6% decrease in annual sales to 4.42 trillion yen (approximately $280 billion).
Cloudflare (NET.US) AI efficiency fails to meet market's high growth expectations: lays off 20%, Q2 revenue guidance slightly below expectations. In the first quarter ending March 31, Cloudflare surpassed almost all key performance indicators expected by analysts. Revenue reached $639.8 million, a 34% increase year-on-year, higher than the consensus forecast of $621.9 million by LSEG. In the US, EMEA, and APAC regions, growth rates of 34%, 31%, and 34% were achieved, respectively. In terms of profitability, adjusted earnings per share (EPS) were $0.25, exceeding the analyst's expected $0.23 by about 9%. GAAP net loss was $22.9 million ($0.07 per share), significantly narrowing from the previous year's $38.45 million loss ($0.11 per share). The second-quarter revenue guidance is $664 million to $665 million, with adjusted earnings per share of $0.27.
Important Economic Data and Events Preview
20:30 Beijing time: US non-farm payroll change seasonally adjusted for April.
22:00 Beijing time: Preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for May in the US, final value of March Wholesale Inventory Month-on-Month in the US.
01:00 the next day Beijing time: Total US rigs drilling as of May 8th.
03:30 the next day Beijing time: CFTC releases weekly position reports.
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