Dalio warned the United States will enter a turbulent period and reiterated that investors should allocate 5%-15% of their assets in gold.
Dalio said that the United States will face turmoil in the coming years, driven by factors including a huge fiscal deficit, a widening wealth gap, and political division between the left and right. He said that investors should maintain a well-diversified investment portfolio, with gold allocation between 5% and 15%.
Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio said that the United States will face turbulence in the coming years, driven by factors including massive fiscal deficits, widening wealth gap, and political divisions between the left and right wings. He added that the new geopolitical system and disruptions brought by artificial intelligence will further exacerbate this turbulence.
Dalio said in an interview, "There will be significant changes in the next five years, all these forces will come together. After that, the situation will be almost unrecognizable. It will be a very different period, full of great changes and great turmoil."
Dalio expressed concern about the risks facing the American social and political system, especially the possibility of violent events. He said, "We will have midterm elections, and I think the Republicans are likely to lose the House. I think from then on, you'll see political and social conflict intensify during that period, especially between the midterm elections and the 2028 presidential elections."
On the international level, Dalio said that the rule-based international order no longer exists, and the outcome of a US-Iran war can be defined in an "almost black-and-white way, that is, who will control the Strait of Hormuz, who will control nuclear materials." He advised investors to maintain a well-diversified investment portfolio, with gold allocated between 5% and 15%, as "when we look back at history, we see that in all such periods, all fiat currencies will depreciate, while gold will appreciate."
It is worth mentioning that at the end of last month, Dalio mentioned that the world is rapidly changing, with more and more transactions moving away from the dollar system, making gold an "important safe-haven currency." He pointed out that gold should be an important diversified asset in a portfolio, meaning investors should allocate 5% to 15% of their portfolio to gold.
Dalio said, "I think it's important to understand that gold is also a currency." He believes that understanding gold as a currency is crucial; it is the oldest currency and the second largest reserve currency of central banks. While the dollar remains the top reserve currency in the global reserve system, gold comes next, followed by the euro and the yen.
Dalio stressed that gold holds special significance in the current environment. It does not rely on the credit of any single country and is not completely controlled by the policies of a single central bank. Therefore, in the context of a multipolar global monetary system, rising geopolitical risks, and increased risks of sanctions and capital controls, the diversification value of gold is further highlighted. He said, "Gold is an effective diversification tool, and the current market environment is particularly favorable for gold performance."
Similarly, last month, Dalio also warned that the US and Israel's war against Iran is just a part of the Shanghai New World war we are in, and this world war will not end soon. He said, "In my opinion, most people tend to focus on and respond to the current attention-grabbing events - such as the current situation in Iran - but overlook the larger, more important, and longer-lasting events that drive the current situation and future trends. At present, the most important thing is that the US-Israel-Iran war is just a part of the world war we are in, and this world war will not end soon."
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