Farewell to the era of US stock quarterly reports? Traders are betting on the SEC's new regulations to accelerate implementation, with disagreements still existing on the effective timing.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) released a significant regulatory proposal on Tuesday, aiming to eliminate the mandatory quarterly reporting system and allow U.S. companies to choose to disclose financial reports every six months. Traders generally bet heavily on the high probability of this reform being implemented, but there is a clear difference of opinion on when the new rules will officially take effect. After the related proposal was disclosed on Tuesday, data from the prediction platform Kalshi showed that the probability of relaxing financial disclosure rules by April 2027 surged from 46% to 73%. Traders' expectations for the rapid implementation of the new rules before January 1st of the next year initially rose to 67%, then fell to 50%, and currently remain around 57%. If this proposal can be approved by January 2027, it will become an exceptional case in the rapid pace of SEC rule revisions in history. Optimistic predictions from Kalshi traders: SEC's draft rule to cancel mandatory quarterly reporting may be implemented quickly According to the process, this proposal must first go through a 60-day public comment period, after which commissioners can adjust the detailed plan based on feedback, and the comment period will not start until the proposal is officially published in the Federal Register. Analysis by the law firm Wilson Sonsini in 2023 shows that the time taken to publish a draft rule in the Federal Register can range from a few days to up to a month, and proposals exceeding a hundred pages often take longer. The proposal for the SEC's semi-annual financial report disclosure rules this time is a whopping 279 pages. Looking at the index of SEC rule-making activities, in recent years, it has typically taken at least one year for a new rule to go from proposal to final implementation, with some cases even taking several years. Data from another prediction platform, Polymarket, shows that traders believe there is a 51% chance that the SEC will eliminate mandatory quarterly financial reporting in 2026. Overall, traders are betting that the SEC's progress in revising corporate financial disclosure rules this time will be faster than before. It is understood that after U.S. President Trump called for the elimination of mandatory quarterly reporting, SEC Chairman Paul Atkins promised to expedite the implementation of the semi-annual disclosure program. Some analysts believe that this significant move could reduce the amount of information disclosed by publicly traded companies to investors. However, critics argue that this move could allow companies to conceal unfavorable information, and reducing the frequency of disclosure could increase the risk of insider trading.