Guotai Haitong: The global coal price center is expected to continue to rise, reiterating a strategic bullish view for the energy supercycle in the next 5-10 years.

Guotai Haitong released a research report stating that, even without considering the impact of geopolitics, the actual global medium to long-term coal supply and demand balance has entered a marginal market contraction, bullish on global coal resources, and the global coal price center is expected to continue to rise. They reiterated the strategic bullish view on the energy supercycle in the next 5-10 years. Key points from Guotai Haitong: Forward-looking predictions validated: With early stockpiling at the end of the month, coal prices soared back above the 800 yuan per ton mark, and the peak season for price increases has just begun. In the first half of the week before the holiday, driven by stockpiling before the holiday, port coal prices rose sharply, with a cumulative increase of over 20 yuan per ton in 3 days, breaking through the 800 yuan per ton mark, exceeding market expectations. However, all of this had been predicted in advance in mid-April, leading to the early stockpiling and price increases beyond expectations, primarily due to changes in fundamentals supply and demand. Some clues can be seen from the macro data released in March, which formed the basis for the early predictions. In March, imports of thermal coal showed a year-on-year decrease of over 4 million tons, and it is expected that the decrease in April will be more pronounced against the backdrop of widening price differentials between domestic and foreign coal prices. On the demand side, the most surprising aspect is related to geoeconomics, with the return of global manufacturing orders leading to an increase in secondary industrial electricity consumption and a boost in national electricity demand due to weather factors ahead of the off-season, driving coastal daily consumption to historically high levels, and power plant inventories dropping to the lowest levels since 2022. Given the currently low port inventories and rising daily consumption, it is expected that power plants will make significant stockpiling efforts. Unlike in the past, there is a high likelihood that the energy and chemical industries will also stock up at the same time, exceeding previous levels, signaling the beginning of a significant increase in coal prices. Thermal coal: Early stockpiling led to a significant price surge. As of April 30, 2026, the settlement price of Q5500 thermal coal at the northern Huanghua port was 813 yuan per ton, up 32 yuan per ton (4.1%) from the previous week. Supply and demand have significantly improved, leading to early stockpiling and a significant price surge. Coking coal: Molten iron production resumed, and subsequent price increases will depend on the rise in thermal coal prices. The main coking coal stockpile at Jingtang port (from Shanxi) was priced at 1700 yuan per ton, up 30 yuan per ton (1.8%) from the previous week; the main coking coal stockpile at Jingtang port (from Hebei) was priced at 1590 yuan per ton, up 30 yuan per ton (1.9%) from the previous week; the molten iron production this week remained at 2.39 million tons per day, unchanged from the previous week. Coking coal is not as balanced as thermal coal from a marginal perspective in April, but with thermal coal prices expected to rise early as they peak in May, it is also expected to drive up coking coal prices. Risk warning: Economic growth lower than expected; Large-scale imports of coal; Supply exceeds expectations.