Heading straight for the target of 150? The Japanese yen surged again, reaching the 155 mark. Speculation about intervention is rising once more.

On Wednesday, the Japanese yen rebounded to its highest level in over two months, sparking speculation that Japanese officials may have intervened in the exchange rate once again. The yen rate rose by 1.8% to 155.04 yen per US dollar, reaching the highest level since February 24. Earlier, the Japanese government intervened in the foreign exchange market on April 30 for the first time since 2024, causing the yen to surge by 3% at one point during the day. Although Japanese officials refused to directly comment on whether intervention had taken place, sources familiar with the matter confirmed that intervention had indeed occurred, and analysis of the Bank of Japan's accounts suggested that the Japanese government may have spent approximately $34.5 billion. Rodrigo Catril, a strategist at the National Australia Bank, said, "The US dollar against the Japanese yen rate gapped lower, and all signs indicate intervention. The recent price trends further confirm that the Japanese Ministry of Finance is eager to prevent the yen from falling to the 160 level, while also trying to deter speculators from shorting the yen." As the yen rose on Wednesday, the US dollar weakened overall and safe-haven demand decreased, following indications from US President Trump that progress had been made in reaching a final agreement with Iran. The Japanese market was closed for holidays, but TJM Europe stated that the yen's rise suggested further intervention by the authorities. Neil Jones, Managing Director of Foreign Exchange Sales and Trading Companies, said, "I believe this is the Japanese Ministry of Finance further selling the US dollar against the yen to the Bank of Japan. If the Ministry of Finance wants to send a clear signal, it needs to bring the US dollar against the yen rate below 155, or even 153.50 perhaps aiming for 150." Goldman Sachs analysts stated that Japan has the ability to intervene in the foreign exchange market 30 times, as it did last week, but officials are expected to retain reserves and intervene at a more opportune time. In 2024, when the yen fell multiple times to around 160.17, the Japanese authorities spent a total of approximately $100 billion buying yen to support the exchange rate. Additional measures were also taken when the yen fell to 157.99, 161.76, and 159.45 respectively. Earlier, a Japanese Ministry of Finance official stated that according to guidelines from the International Monetary Fund, if Japan wants to maintain its floating exchange rate system, it can only intervene for three days at a time until November. Japanese Finance Minister Koizumi Katsuyuki stated on Monday that according to the Japan-US agreement, Japanese authorities can take decisive action against speculative exchange rate fluctuations. An official mentioned that even during public holidays in Japan, intervention can still take place as long as global markets are open. Analysis indicates that the sudden drop in the US dollar against the yen on Wednesday for unknown reasons led traders to speculate that Japanese authorities may have been selling the dollar. David Forrester, a senior strategist at Crdit Agricole CIB in Singapore, stated, reports on IMF guidelines "encourage investors to push up the US dollar / yen rate," "This gives the Japanese Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan another opportunity to intervene to defend the level of the US dollar / yen around 157, and 157 still seems to be the new support level."