Goldman Sachs warns: Global oil inventories approach an eight-year low, consumption rate is worrisome.

The conflict in the Middle East continues, and the Strait of Hormuz remains in a state of blockade, causing a faster depletion of global crude oil and refined oil inventories. A recent report from Goldman Sachs pointed out that global oil inventories have decreased to near the lowest level in nearly eight years, warning that the rate of inventory depletion is becoming a worrying issue. Goldman Sachs analysts estimate that current global crude oil inventories are equivalent to 101 days of global demand, and are expected to further decrease to 98 days by the end of May. While overall global oil inventories are unlikely to fall to the lowest operational alert line this summer, the speed of depleting inventories in certain regions and oil products, as well as supply disruptions, have drawn market attention. The report shows that global commercial refined oil inventories have decreased from 50 days of demand before the US and Israel went to war with Iran to the current 45 days, and accessible buffer stocks are rapidly approaching very low levels. Among them, supply risks are most concerning for naphtha, aviation kerosene, and liquefied petroleum gas. Goldman Sachs points out that existing data may underestimate the shortage risks in certain countries and specific oil products. While global crude oil inventories have not yet reached a critical level, excess supply in one region is difficult to effectively alleviate shortages in other regions. Commercial aviation kerosene inventories in Europe are expected to fall below critical levels in June, while the shortage risks for refined oil in South Africa, India, and Thailand are also significantly increasing.