The SEC approves Nasdaq to launch predictive options tied to the 100 Index and its mini-index.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved Nasdaq's proposed rule change on Thursday, April 30, allowing it to list and trade prediction market options tied to benchmark indices on its MRX exchange. This new type of instrument, known as "Outcome-Related Options" (OROs), signifies a significant regulatory breakthrough for mainstream U.S. securities exchanges in introducing event prediction financial products. The core mechanism of this product adopts a typical binary settlement model, with trading logic highly simplified to a "yes or no" determination of specific market outcomes. In practice, investors bet on whether a related index will be above or below a certain preset level at contract expiration by paying a premium. The final value of each contract exhibits a "all or nothing" characteristic, where a correct prediction results in a fixed settlement amount of $100, while an incorrect prediction results in zero value. This structure causes option premiums to fluctuate between $0.01 and $1.00, providing real-time consensus on the probability of specific index trends. As the legitimacy of prediction markets continues to rise, more and more companies are seeking to enter this field - allowing users to bet on real-world event outcomes while opening up new revenue streams and market insights. The product introduced by Nasdaq, the exchange operator based in New York, offers cash-settled contracts, paying a fixed amount based on whether the index closing price is above or below the set level at expiration. According to the approved plan, Nasdaq's initial products will closely track the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) and its micro index, providing investors with a purely risk management and speculative tool based on index point predictions. The Nasdaq 100 Index tracks the 100 largest non-financial companies listed on Nasdaq, including Apple Inc. (AAPL.US), NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US), and Intel Corporation (INTC.US); while the micro index is based on 1/100th of the total market value of the Nasdaq 100 Index. The approval of this regulation reflects the active penetration of traditional builders in the U.S. stock market into the emerging field of prediction markets. Traditionally, such tools have existed in a regulatory gray area, and Nasdaq's successful approval through the SEC framework rather than the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) establishes its compliance as "securities options". The SEC's accelerated approval order noted that Nasdaq's proposal meets the requirements of maintaining investor interests and ensuring fair and orderly markets. This ruling not only opens up new business growth points for Nasdaq, but also sets an important precedent for other traditional exchanges to integrate prediction tools into existing securities regulatory frameworks. Currently, the U.S. prediction market is in a period of competition. Just as Nasdaq was approved, Cboe Global Markets also plans to launch similar financial and economic event contracts in the second quarter of 2026. In addition, prediction platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket have validated the market potential of such products. With institutions obtaining derivative clearing licenses, the boundary between traditional exchanges and digital asset platforms is becoming increasingly blurred, and a macro prediction ecosystem driven by events and featuring round-the-clock trading is quickly taking shape.