Will the A-share market continue its volatile upwards trend in the short term? What are the main investment themes? Here come the strategies from the top ten securities firms.

Top 10 brokerage firms' latest strategy views are as follows: CITIC SEC: Actively seek out varieties with supply-demand gaps that are neither popular nor confrontational Since 2007, the current clustering period ranks second in duration out of 8 ultimate clustering periods, and after the clustering market ends, excess often appears in industries that are not popular but have fundamental logic, rather than sectors that confront the popular ones. Currently, if an industry is heavily absorbed in AI hardware, it is likely to have flaws itself. For the market, the next thing to be vigilant about is the return of fundamental pricing capital after commodity volatility comes down, as well as the continuous rise in commodity prices that can be converted into energy. At that time, the market will start pricing in the real economic impact caused by the price hike due to the supply-demand gap, and the unexpected profits will become the core clues. The domestic supply-side policies cannot be ignored as well. "Energy-saving and carbon reduction" and the "carbon peak evaluation method" are two key documents in the recent period. The timing of their release also reflects the urgency of accelerating energy-saving and carbon reduction in a complex global geopolitical environment. In terms of configuration, continue to adhere to the advantages of Chinese manufacturing and actively seek out varieties with supply-demand gaps. China Securities Co., Ltd.: External risks are controllable, focusing on three prosperity main lines The negotiations between the US and Iran are currently in a stalemate, leading to oil prices fluctuating and returning above $105. Although this will create ongoing market disturbances, the risk of the situation spiraling out of control is relatively limited, and A-shares have also become desensitized to geopolitical fears. The AI computing power sector has seen some disturbances in performance, but it still belongs to a scarce high prosperity direction. The market's response to financial reports reflects the transition of the AI computing power industry from "thematic concept" to "performance realization" phase. In a scarce prosperity environment, market funds are choosing to concentrate in high prosperity tracks. Overall, the current market is in a key window of prosperity verification, focusing on three logical main lines: the AI computing power sector, the energy security sector including coal and coal chemicals, and the midstream manufacturing sector, especially the new energy sector. Industries to focus on: AI computing power (semiconductors, optical communications, etc.), oil and gas production, coal, coal chemicals, power equipment, machinery equipment, etc. Sinolink: When reality is approaching, pricing uncertainty may be starting to grow In the past month, the market has been chasing certainty macroscopically, but investors should prepare for the next trading scenario: the market will eventually realize the constraints on energy and the upward movement of the price center, which will bring opportunities for China's new and old energy as well as the manufacturing sector. Domestic consumption will also benefit from the capital flowing back from export prosperity. First, new and old energy sources benefiting from the upward movement of energy price center (oil, oil transportation, coal, lithium batteries, wind and solar power, energy storage), and in the global perspective, the chemical industry with significant advantages in energy cost and production capacity, as well as factors. Second, the suppression of the US dollar is gradually retreating, and non-ferrous metals still have room for recovery (aluminum, copper, gold). Third, the continuous export prosperity and improving capital inflows will also bring new driving forces to long-dormant domestic demand, seeking structural opportunities under the reversal of suppressing factors - tourism and scenic spots, flavor and fermentation products, beer and other alcoholic beverages, pharmaceutical business, medical aesthetics, etc. GF SEC: Fed interest rate cut expectations back and forth, how will it affect growth stocks? This week, there has been back-and-forth movement in the Fed interest rate cut expectations over the past 26 years, how will it affect the AI industry? The most market-friendly environment for stocks is a "double-click from Davis", but most of the time it's a dilemma. The technology industry in the past 26 years has been the same. On the one hand, high oil prices and geopolitical situations have led to the back and forth expectations of Fed interest rate cuts. Previously, the Fed's expectations of interest rate cuts for the year had dropped to near 0%, but this week with changes in the situation, the probability of no interest rate cuts this year has risen to 76%. On the other hand, the commercialization of the AI industry in the past 26 years has accelerated, which has also led to upward revisions in earnings forecasts for globally representative companies. If the numerator (fundamentals) and the denominator (discount rate) deviate, how will the growth industry be priced? Several cases in history have shown that high growth can overcome an unfriendly interest rate environment, summed up as "rising in the face of rate hikes". Back to the present: Maintaining tracking verification of the high prosperity of the AI industry is more important than worrying about US Treasury rates, crowding, or concentration. Structure is more important than position, and we continue to recommend four clues of independent high prosperity for this year: 1) energy storage and lithium batteries; 2) domestic AI technology (including semiconductors); 3) overseas computing power chains; 4) AI short drama animation. CMSC: Focus on first quarter report verification and direction of continued prosperity Since April, the easing of geopolitical risks has driven the risk appetite of A-shares to rebound, with the turnover of both markets breaking through 2 trillion, and the pricing logic shifting from risk aversion to performance verification. The current market shows features of "ultimate clustering" and "deep valuation differentiation", with funds rapidly returning from consumption to resources and technology premium stages. With the first quarter report verification, the focus is on three main lines of prosperity: PPI turning positive and the resource and computing power reassessment driven by the AI explosion; the performance resilience of the high-tech manufacturing industry under the overseas dividend; and the bottom repair of the real estate chain after policy support. Investment suggestions include selectively opting for differentiation in crowded tracks, focusing on hard technology and real resources, grasping structural opportunities with dual drivers of profit and prosperity, with a focus on sectors such as electronics (semiconductors), power equipment (batteries, grid equipment), national defense military industries, non-ferrous metals (industrial metals, energy metals, minor metals), basic chemicals (chemical raw materials, chemical products), etc. Zhongtai: Any new changes in the heavily-invested sectors of the first quarter by active mutual funds? The focus of the market this week continues to be on the progress of first quarter reports and overseas risk factors. This week, expectations for a ceasefire in the Middle East were slow to materialize, and oil prices experienced another rebound, driving the energy sector up. In terms of technology, the first quarter reports for CPO were mixed. The leading CPO company, Eoptolink Technology Inc., reported below market expectations, leading to a substantial drop in the communication sector on Friday. On the other hand, the release of DeepSeek's new model this week, which is compatible with domestic chips, had a positive impact on the technology chip sector, which rose against the trend on Friday (the day of the DeepSeek new model release) by more than 2%. Looking at the industry level, the changes in industry allocation of active mutual funds in the first quarter of A-shares exhibit a strong characteristic of "replenishment of high dividend resource products + cyclical recovery + internal rebalancing of prosperity growth". Investment recommendations: In the short term, with the market oscillating on the upper edge, defensive assets such as chemicals can be considered for baseline allocation to hedge market volatility. In terms of technology, focus on areas with strong fund inflows, such as optical modules, power equipment, and innovative drugs, where performance certainty is high and positioning can be adjusted on dips. Consider positioning in areas like new energy, chemical equipment, global military expansion, Middle East reconstruction and pipeline construction as opportunities for recovery after easing of geopolitical risks. : Will technology growth fluctuate after the earnings season? In reviewing history, there have been many instances of fluctuation in technology growth following the earnings season, mainly driven by factors such as previous price increases, policies, and industry trends. Currently, it is possible for there to be fluctuations in technology growth post-earnings season, with potential upward and downward movements in industries such as pharmaceuticals, media, computers, and electronics. A-shares may continue to trend in a slightly bullish and oscillating manner in the short term. In terms of industry allocation, it is recommended to continue to allocate to low positions in technology growth industries such as CKH Holdings. 1) Industries driven by policy and industrial trends such as new energy (AI power, lithium batteries), media (AI applications, games), computers (AI applications), non-ferrous metals, defense (commercial aerospace), electronics (semiconductors, AI hardware), communications (AI hardware), innovative drugs, chemicals, etc. 2) Industries with improving fundamentals and potential for recovery, such as securities, consumption (food and beverage, social services, retail trade). Zheshang: Extreme differentiation in the market, don't chase highs in the short term, wait for opportunities in the medium term In the first half of this week, the market continued to rise under the leadership of the ChiNext Index, but there was a slight fall in the second half of the week. Looking ahead, with the rise and fall of the leading company in the optical module sector, this current upward trend in the ChiNext Index is likely to temporarily come to an end, and there may be a temporary two-way fluctuation in the short term, followed by potential opportunities for another rise after adjustment. On the other hand, once the ChiNext Index starts to fluctuate, the entire market may enter a state of oscillation and consolidation. If this current non-ChiNext Index begins to adjust, the Shanghai Composite may gradually form a "right foot" relative to the low point on March 23, presenting a good opportunity for positioning. Additionally, with the recent extreme styles in the market and the daily trading volume of the top 5% of stocks reaching 46%, caution is needed due to the market volatility caused by differentiation. In terms of configuration, based on the judgment of "ChiNext temporarily resting on differentiating, non-ChiNext following the ChiNext in volatility", it is recommended to: treat the ChiNext Index and the technology innovation board (STAR Market) with caution in the short term and avoid chasing highs, and consider entering after a thorough adjustment; for other stocks, consider the Shanghai Composite Index as an "anchor" and view it in terms of range oscillation, and consider positioning after the market retreats and forms a "golden right foot". Considering that the volatility of the ChiNext Index can lead to market consolidation, and the unclear situation in the Middle East, where global capital markets have not fully priced in the upward movement of oil prices, it may be appropriate to position in dividend-related stocks (especially energy-related). In addition, consider positions in technology stocks like Hengkang, securities, and some innovative drugs that have had a sufficient retracement, to address potential upside risks and replenish holdings. EB SECURITIES: Market likely to continue oscillating upward in the short term In the short term, the market is expected to continue oscillating upward. On the one hand, although the Middle East geopolitical tensions persist, the uncertainty has gradually diminished as the market's response to marginal changes in the Middle East situation has dulled after previous adjustments, resulting in a softening of short-term disturbances brought about by risk aversion. On the other hand, the upcoming Central Political Bureau meeting in April is expected to drive policy expectations, gradually boosting market risk appetite, in addition to companies entering the disclosure window for the first quarter reports, where the resilience of quality enterprises is expected to provide solid fundamental support for the market, guiding funds in the market to continue gathering towards fundamentally sound quality assets. Overall, in resonance with multiple favorable factors, the A-share market may continue its oscillatory upward trend in the short term. In terms of style, it is projected that the market may oscillate between "weak reality, strong emotions" and "weak reality, weak emotions", corresponding to the rotation between growth and defensive styles. In terms of economic reality, the overall economy is expected to show a mild recovery, with economic expectations being relatively stable. In terms of market sentiment, the conflict in the Middle East may dominate market sentiment, and market sentiment may see significant fluctuations amid the back-and-forth negotiation and conflict scenarios. Overall, the market style may rotate between growth and defensive styles.