Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) is about to release its financial results. What the market cares about is not just the performance itself, but also AI, Robotaxi, Siasun Robot&Automation, and SpaceX.

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US), the global leader in autonomous driving and electric vehicles founded and led by Elon Musk, will have a rare "financial feast" on Wednesday afternoon (Thursday morning Beijing time), with the possibility of a significantly better-than-expected financial report after many years. However, the core issue that Wall Street is focusing on is whether the actual financial numbers will be overlooked by investors as they seek more substantive evidence to support Elon Musk's ambitions in artificial intelligence, autonomous driving, Robotaxi, and humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation, all of which are expected to justify the stock's high valuation. Whether for long-term investors focusing on Tesla, Inc.'s growth prospects, or speculators focusing on short-term excess alpha returns, they basically believe that the first quarter financial performance of Tesla, Inc. has taken a back seat, and they are closely watching Tesla, Inc.'s AI narrative, the penetration trend of FSD (fully automated driving subscription software) driven by Tesla, Inc.'s AI supercomputer, Robotaxi, and Optimus humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation technology progress and production capacity realization, the ambition of the Terafab chip factory, as well as the grand narrative of SpaceX IPO and the "Global Space AI Data Center" led by SpaceX. Average forecasts from Wall Street analysts show that this North American electric vehicle manufacturer is expected to report a 30% increase in first quarter adjusted profit and a 15% increase in total revenue when the results are released after the US stock market on Wednesday. According to institutional compiled data, this represents a significant turnaround from Tesla, Inc.'s fourth quarter performance - when adjusted profits fell by more than 30% and revenue fell by about 3%. However, in many aspects, these numbers are now only secondary factors, as the stock is mainly trading and pricing based on Tesla, Inc.'s grand visions in artificial intelligence, FSD and Robotaxi built on Tesla, Inc.'s proprietary AI supercomputing technology, as well as the grand narrative in the field of "Optimus" (Optimus) humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation and the "Global Space AI Data Center" led by SpaceX. It is these comprehensive factors related to cutting-edge technology that have driven Tesla, Inc.'s stock price to its all-time high in December. However, many questions surrounding these goals have led to a 21% decline in the stock since reaching its record high, making it the worst performer among the "Magnificent Seven" tech giants in the US stock market, and also trailing far behind the S&P 500 index's 3.9% increase during this period. As shown in the figure above, Tesla, Inc.'s stock price has significantly underperformed the broader US stock market. Note: Data has been standardized based on percentage gains as of December 16, 2025; when Tesla, Inc.'s stock price hit a historic high that day. Currently, investors are undoubtedly focusing on whether Robotaxi expansion can be scaled, the pace of mass production/commercialization of Optimus humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation, AI computing capital expenditures, and the financing path for the epic chip manufacturing project called "Terafab"; in addition, SpaceX's IPO plans and the grand narrative of space AI data center are already a central topic in Tesla, Inc.'s financial discussions. The growth prospects in the commercial aerospace sector led by SpaceX and the possibility of a SpaceX IPO have become key marginal variables affecting Tesla, Inc.'s valuation premium and "Musk premium". SpaceX is considering going public in June (around Musk's birthday), with a fundraising amount that could reach $75 billion, potentially surpassing Saudi Aramco to become the largest IPO in history. The expected valuation could reach a staggering $2 trillion, exceeding Tesla, Inc.'s current market capitalization of about $1.3 trillion. The combination of Tesla, Inc., SpaceX, and AI forms the "Musk Super Business Empire," which may be the ultimate destiny of these three companies founded by Musk. With Musk recently making positive progress in areas such as space AI data centers, large-scale energy storage, artificial intelligence, fully automated driving (FSD), Robotaxi, and innovative Optimus humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation, it appears that the world's richest man is weaving a "super vertical integrated asset chain" that can be financed and explained in capital markets and on the industrial side simultaneously. This ability to unify global hot investment themes or narratives around "AI, communication, aerospace, energy, Siasun Robot & Automation" into a "full-stack super cutting-edge technology infrastructure platform" will undoubtedly have significant implications for SpaceX IPO pricing and valuation, boosting Tesla, Inc.'s valuation, early to mid-term IPO roadshows, and investor structure. The valuation bubble of Tesla, Inc.'s AI, Siasun Robot & Automation, and space AI faces a major test "Investors are actually paying for a ten-year vision," said Dave Mazza, CEO of Roundhill Investments, which has a long-term holding in Tesla, Inc. stock. "That being said, patience also comes at a cost." Tesla, Inc. shareholders have indeed paid a high price for this stock. Based on expected earnings for the next 12 months, its expected price-earnings ratio is as high as 183 times, trailing only Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. and The Boeing Company in the S&P 500 index, making it the third most expensive stock. The expected price-earnings ratio of Bloomberg compiled "Magnificent Seven" index is only about 27 times, and the reason for this high level is because Tesla, Inc. is extremely deviating from the valuation and pricing norms compared to the other six tech giants. For example, the second-highest expected price-earnings ratio in this group is Apple Inc., at about 30 times expected price-earnings ratio, followed by Alphabet Inc. Class C, parent company of Alphabet Inc., at about 26 times. NVIDIA Corporation, the AI chip superpower, is positioned lower with a far lower multiple of 22 times in the long run. Therefore, some investment professionals from Wall Street have expressed that strong quarterly performance - even if exceeding continuously downward adjusted expectations from analysts - is unlikely to significantly drive up this overvalued stock. Instead, Tesla, Inc.'s management led by Musk may need to do one of two things in the earnings call to lift the stock out of its current rut: one, make substantial progress in the Robotaxi production expansion plan; and two, present another extremely shining new story in the "Musk growth script," set new goals for the company, and reset the clock for achieving results - based on all indicators, this new story is likely to be related to Tesla, Inc.'s massive energy storage system in conjunction with the space AI data center construction process. "When a stock is traded based on many long-term stories, market patience doesn't disappear overnight," said Haris Khurshid, Chief Investment Officer at Karobaar Capital, which primarily holds Tesla, Inc. stock through derivatives. "Existing holders are still holding on, but attracting new buyers becomes increasingly difficult without clearer growth-oriented results." Wall Street has shown a leaning towards a pessimistic sentiment. Analysts have reduced their first quarter earnings expectations by over 55% over the past 12 months, and by about 30% over the past 6 months. Besides the significant drop in electric vehicle sales, the other key issues lie in the fact that Tesla, Inc.'s autonomous driving cars and Optimus humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation are still years, if not decades, away from widespread commercial applications. For example, the Tesla, Inc. earnings model developed by Jefferies senior analyst Philippe Houchois shows that revenue data from Robotaxi and humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation businesses will not be included until 2027. Analyst Colin Langan from Wells Fargo & Company has given the stock a "sell" rating due to the current incremental progress in these projects, which may lead Tesla, Inc. to continually shift towards new growth opportunities. He questioned in a report on April 13, "What will be the next 'dazzling new story'? I am skeptical about this." This is particularly challenging because Tesla, Inc. is the only stock that allows investors to directly bet on Musk himself, and its attraction may soon be significantly weakened his billionaire space exploration and commercial aerospace giant SpaceX is planning to launch its initial public offering later this year. "The prospects of a potential SpaceX IPO may exert significant pressure on Tesla, Inc.'s stock price, as new retail capital that may have flowed into Tesla, Inc. originally will instead pour into SpaceX," said James Picariello, an analyst at French bank BNP Paribas. What will be Musk's next "super magic bullet"? Signs indicate that significant changes or shifts in investor themes are brewing. After Musk dismissed the highly anticipated $25,000 vehicle plan as "meaningless" 18 months ago, Tesla, Inc. is now focused on creating a more affordable all-electric vehicle model. Last month, Musk announced his Terafab project aimed at mass-producing chips for Siasun Robot & Automation, artificial intelligence, and space data centers. Meanwhile, speculation about a potential merger between Tesla, Inc. and SpaceX continues. At the same time, internal market forces that could drive Tesla, Inc.'s stock price higher are weakening. According to data from S3 Partners, bearish bets on the stock have significantly decreased, with short positions accounting for about 2% of free float shares, the lowest level since February 2025. This limits the ability to trigger short covering on unexpected positive news, which could drive up the stock price. As shown in the figure above, Tesla, Inc.'s stock price lags behind all its peers in the mega-cap tech sector. Matthew Unterman, Managing Director of S3 Partners, wrote in a report on April 10, "With short positions no longer at elevated levels, the momentum for short-covering is weakening, limiting the market's ability to absorb downward capital flows." The technical indicators of Tesla, Inc.'s stock price have not provided much encouragement. Its 50-day moving average recently fell below the long-term 200-day moving average, forming a bearish pattern known as a "death cross," which typically indicates downward momentum in stock price movement. However, despite the short-term negative sentiment, John Kolovos, Chief Technical Strategist at Macro Risk Advisors, suggests that Tesla, Inc. investors can still hope for Musk to come up with a "super magic bullet" to lift the stock out of its current quiet state. "I still like it in the long run," Kolovos said, adding that investors "just need to let it go at its own pace." Musk is stretching the future, while Tesla, Inc. is tightening the present Whether Tesla, Inc. can push the grand narratives of AI, Siasun Robot & Automation, and even SpaceX's space AI data center from long-term imagination to execution stages that can be quickly validated by the capital markets may be the strongest DRIVE to propel Tesla, Inc.'s stock price towards a new bull market trajectory. What the market most needs is not a beautiful profit sheet, but a narrative reset that can prove Tesla, Inc. is transitioning from "AI options" to "milestone-based phased realization"; without clearer evidence of execution, even with impressive short-term numbers, the stock price is unlikely to move beyond the "strong financials, exhausted valuations" status. Tesla, Inc. is no longer a stock primarily driven by quarterly profits, but one that relies on "long-term technology assets" supported by Robotaxi, Optimus, on-board inference, Siasun Robot & Automation inference, and the xAI/SpaceX space training and deployment computing power chain; the true response function of the stock still depends on whether the management can present a clearer roadmap, capital expenditure path, and realization pace. From an industrial logic perspective, Tesla, Inc.'s long-term growth narrative is transitioning from electric vehicle manufacturing to a "super platform company at the level of AI". Once Tesla, Inc.'s expected growth engine becomes Robotaxi, Optimus, on-board reasoning, Siasun Robot & Automation reasoning, and xAI/SpaceX's space training and deployment computing power chain, the actual infrastructure bottleneck will no longer be primarily batteries and vehicle components, but high-end logic chips, advanced 2.5D/3D/3.5D packaging, data center storage chips, large-scale CECEP Solar Energy and storage systems, as well as geostrategic supply chain security under the political warfare situation of GEO Group Inc. This is why the world's richest man recently announced his ambitions to venture into high-end semiconductor manufacturing, referring to it as the "most epic chip manufacturing project ever," called "Terafab." Musk appears to be attempting to transform the "chip shortage" into an extraordinary industrial gamble that could reshape the semiconductor supply landscape. Musk's goal is not only to manufacture higher-performance chips, but to rewrite the supply and demand landscape of AI, Siasun Robot & Automation, and space data centers; however, the more grandiose the cross-era vision, the more it exposes the harsh reality of global advanced semiconductor capacity shortage and extremely high manufacturing barriers. As the wealthiest person in the world so far, Musk has achieved things that others thought were impossible - he has created a commercially viable high-frequency rocket launch business through SpaceX, mainstreamed electric vehicles with Tesla, Inc., and provided internet connectivity infrastructure services from space through Starlink. But there are doubts about whether Musk can really, or even intends to, build the "most epic" chip manufacturing operation he recently unveiled in Austin, and whether he can truly achieve his vision of "artificial intelligence, autonomous driving, humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation, and space AI data center super blueprints".