Top institutions such as TOK, and GOMVO unanimously warn that oil prices do not yet reflect the most serious supply interruption in history, and the impact of the Strait of Hormuz may be severely underestimated.

Multiple top market analysts have stated that the Iran conflict has effectively blocked the Strait of Hormuz, causing the most severe disruption in oil supply in history, and current oil prices do not fully reflect this impact. Saad Rahim, Chief Economist of Tocqueville Group, stated at a global commodities summit on Tuesday that the conflict has so far led to a blockage of 1 billion barrels of oil supply; if the conflict continues, this number could rise to 1.5 billion barrels. Frederic Lasserre, Chief Analyst of Commodity Trading Group Gonwo, warned that if the conflict continues for another month, the oil market will face a situation of bottoming out of inventories, meaning resources will be exhausted. Since the outbreak of the Iran conflict, Brent crude oil futures prices have fluctuated sharply, reaching nearly $120 per barrel at one point, but later falling due to expectations of negotiations. On Tuesday, Brent crude oil was trading at around $95 per barrel, to some extent due to the market's optimistic assessment that the conflict may soon end. Rahim from Tocqueville said, "The market clearly has not fully understood the severity of this supply shock." He added that even if a peace agreement is reached, it will take time for oil circulation to return to normal, so there is a significant gap between market expectations and reality. Amrita Sen, Co-Founder and Director of Research at Energy Aspects, stated at the same forum that the volume of oil transported through the Strait of Hormuz may never return to pre-war levels. She also predicted that as a result of the conflict, losses in supplies of gasoline and other refined oil products could reach about 450 million barrels, based on the assumption that next month the Strait of Hormuz will resume 50% of navigation.