After the Iran conflict disturbance, global mergers and acquisitions have warmed up, with large transactions supporting market recovery.

Notice that in the weeks following the outbreak of the Iran war, the value of global M&A transactions experienced a sharp decline, but has gradually rebounded. Despite ongoing market volatility, businesses and investors continue to ignore the disruptions and proceed with large M&A deals. According to data from the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG), the market turmoil triggered by the US and Israel's strikes on Iran caused the value of global transactions announced in the second week of March to drop to around $39 billion. This marked the lowest weekly transaction value since the "day of liberation" in April last year when the US announced comprehensive tariffs. However, driven by a series of mega-deals, the global transaction value saw a rebound thereafter. These deals include PanXing Square's proposed acquisition of Universal Music Group for $68 billion and Mengniu Dairy's proposed merger with Unilever's food business for $45 billion. Data shows that in the four weeks starting from March 15th, the weekly average value of global M&A transactions rose to around $117 billion, surpassing the previous weekly average levels of around $93 billion in January and February. Guillermo Baygar, Co-Head of Global M&A at Citi, stated, "While CEO confidence has slightly decreased, the importance and logic of these corporate transactions still exist." He added, "While geopolitical dynamics may add some short-term uncertainty, in the long run, these dynamics further prove the need for companies to expand their scale, enhance cost efficiency, and financing capabilities to meet almost mandatory capital expenditure requirements and achieve further growth." Transaction value on the rise Some regions were more severely affected by the turmoil. M&A transactions involving targets in the Gulf region amounted to nearly $15 billion from 2026 to the present year, with the transaction value down by 65% compared to the same period last year despite an increase in the number of announced deals by 5%. LSEG data shows that there were 70 transactions announced in the Gulf region in February, a monthly transaction number only seen once in the past five years. However, after the conflict began in March, only 37 transactions were announced, marking the lowest monthly level since August 2025. However, Gulf entities showed active as buyers. In the six weeks following the outbreak of the Iran war on February 28th, the M&A transaction value initiated by Gulf entities reached $17.1 billion. This number grew by 244% compared to the six weeks before the conflict outbreak but decreased by 21% compared to the same period in 2025. Large transactions driving the market Despite a decrease in the number of global transactions, businesses are still pursuing large and transformative deals. Nimesh Koirala, Co-Head of Europe, Middle East, and Africa M&A at Goldman Sachs, pointed out that due to the impact of geopolitical and macroeconomic factors, the number of small transactions has decreased. He believes that the rebound in the M&A market is driven by long-prepared large transactions. Koirala added, "Large transactions have usually been brewing for a while and are not simply reactions to the conflict in the Middle East." ECM transactions decline after war outbreak Furthermore, LSEG data shows that nearly $50 billion of equity capital markets (ECM) transactions were completed globally in the two weeks following the conflict outbreak, with the pace slowing down afterwards. As of April 14th, the global ECM transaction value for this year reached $21.5 billion, a 37% year-on-year increase. Three equity advisors previously revealed that the first week after the attacks was the most active fundraising week this year as some companies and their shareholders rushed to contact equity investors before the market could deteriorate further and financing capacities could be impeded. Data shows that in the four weeks starting from March 15th, the global weekly average ECM transaction value was around $11 billion, lower than $13 billion in January and $18 billion in February. An advisor told the media that part of the reason for the decrease in transaction value was a slowdown in new stock issuances sparked by the war and companies entering typical slow periods during their earnings announcement. Fluctuation in market volatility after Iran war outbreak Market conditions indicate the possibility of more transactions returning. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) surged after the conflict erupted in late February but had dropped below 20 by April. Traders believe that when the index is below 20, it signals a stabilization of market conditions and a reduction in pressure. Philippe Beck, Head of M&A for Europe, Middle East, and Africa at UBS, said, "Volatility has affected the pace of transactions in some cases, but it has not fundamentally changed strategic intentions, especially for well-funded large transactions." However, the long-term impact remains to be seen. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned this week that if the conflict worsens, the global economy will hover on the brink of recession. Baygar of Citi said, "If we enter a recession environment, people will need to run more scenarios, which may delay some transactions slightly. But also, I believe the next three years will be very active years because the fundamentals that have been driving M&A since last year remain solid."