Financial Report Preview | Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) experiences a major rebound before its earnings report! Can Robotaxi, FSD, and Cybercab support future growth?

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) is set to release its latest quarterly earnings report after the market closes on Wednesday (Thursday morning in Beijing time). With car deliveries falling short of expectations and profits under pressure, investors are particularly focused on the progress of the self-driving Robotaxi rental service, the technological advancements of the Full Self-Driving (FSD) system, and the production status of the Cybercab model. These key pieces of information may directly impact the future direction of Tesla, Inc.'s stock price. It is worth noting that, on the eve of the earnings report, Tesla, Inc.'s stock price has already started to rebound, with a cumulative increase of nearly 15% last week, ending an eight-week streak of consecutive declines. The main reasons for this include: the easing of tensions in the Middle East boosting market sentiment, and the overall strength of the U.S. technology sector; at the same time, Tesla, Inc. has been releasing positive signals in the self-developed AI chip field. First quarter performance outlook Amid multiple positive factors driving a significant rebound in stock price, Tesla, Inc. will officially release its first quarter earnings report after the U.S. market closes on Wednesday. Analysts expect Tesla, Inc.'s first quarter revenue to be around $22.08 billion, a 9% year-over-year decrease; adjusted earnings per share of $0.35; and adjusted EBITDA to decrease to $3.217 billion, a 14.4% year-over-year decline. Earlier this month, Tesla, Inc. announced that its global deliveries for the first quarter were 358,023 vehicles, a 6.3% year-over-year increase, but lower than the market's expected 364,645 vehicles. It is worth noting that the reference base for year-over-year data is limited due to the low delivery base in the same quarter last year, impacted by the Model Y changes. Robotaxi expansion progress Investors' core focus at Tesla, Inc.'s earnings conference on Wednesday will be on the timeline for the deployment of the self-driving Robotaxi service at Shenzhen New Land Tool Planning & Architectural Design, as well as the latest developments in automated driving technology. Since its launch in June 2025, CEO Elon Musk has emphasized multiple times the importance of the Robotaxi business for the company's future development. During the fourth quarter earnings call in January, Tesla, Inc. executives stated that they planned to expand the self-driving Robotaxi service to another 9 cities in the first half of the year, but as of now, no new cities have been added. Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco stated: "After the first appearance of a self-driving Taxi without a safety officer in Austin, market sentiment briefly soared, but the subsequent expansion rate was indeed slower than expected. Bears believe this indicates a flaw in Tesla, Inc.'s technology, but we believe it is too early to draw this conclusion." UBS Group AG, on the other hand, stated that they do not expect any "meaningful scale expansion" in Tesla, Inc.'s self-driving Taxi business this year, but they have upgraded Tesla, Inc.'s rating from "sell" to "neutral." Tesla, Inc. has previously failed to achieve its goal of launching self-driving Taxis by the end of 2025. Musk had promised that the service would cover 8 to 10 cities by the end of 2025, but the plans were ultimately forced to be delayed. FSD and Cybercab As Tesla, Inc. focuses on its self-driving Taxi business, the overall growth rate of car sales has slowed down, dragging down the company's profit margins and cash flow performance. Morgan Stanley's Percoco stated: "With capital expenditures doubling and free cash flow turning negative, investors need clearer signals to prove that self-driving without a safety officer is coming soon, in order to support the valuation of the stock." In order to drive its self-driving Taxi service, Tesla, Inc. needs to improve its truly autonomous driving technology. Even with the latest version of the Fully Self-Driving (FSD) system launched earlier this month, it still requires drivers to remain highly vigilant throughout. Musk has stated that the latest FSD will give vehicles "perceptual awareness," although this statement may be somewhat exaggerated, Tesla, Inc. stated that this update has increased vehicle response speed by 20%. Investors are also looking forward to hearing about the production progress of the Cybercab model, specially designed for the self-driving Taxi business. The model has already started production this month. Photos of the Cybercab in the Austin Gigafactory have been circulating on the internet in recent weeks. Despite the significant rebound in Tesla, Inc.'s stock price last week, it is still down 11% since the beginning of the year.