The International Monetary Fund has lowered economic growth expectations for several Middle Eastern countries, with Qatar experiencing the largest decline.

Due to the impact of the energy and trade interruptions caused by the US-Iran war, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has significantly lowered the economic growth expectations for several Middle Eastern countries and warned that if the conflict continues, the regional economy will face even deeper impacts. In its latest economic outlook released on Thursday, the IMF pointed out that countries relying on the Strait of Hormuz for energy exports are particularly affected. As the traffic through this key waterway has significantly decreased since the war, the economies of the related countries will face more severe contractions, while economies with diversified tradelinks are relatively more resilient. Specifically, Qatar, one of the world's largest liquefied natural gas exporters, is expected to shrink its economy by 8.6% this year, a significant downward revision of nearly 15 percentage points from the forecast in October last year; the economies of Iraq and Iran are expected to contract by 6.8% and 6.1% respectively. At the same time, the two major economies in the Persian Gulf, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, are still growing, but their growth rates have been revised down to 3.1%, a decrease of 0.9 and 1.9 percentage points respectively from previous forecasts. The IMF pointed out that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, disruptions to oil and gas production, and restrictions on air transport in the Gulf region have had a direct impact on the regional economy. IMF's Director of the Middle East and Central Asia Affairs stated that if the conflict prolongs, the long-term impact on the regional economy will deepen. The IMF also lowered its global economic growth forecast this week. In the most optimistic scenario (conflict ends quickly, with average oil prices at around $82 per barrel), global economic growth is expected to be 3.1%; in the most pessimistic scenario (intensified damage to energy infrastructure), global growth could fall below 2%. The IMF emphasized that it is currently unable to provide a clear assessment of the probabilities of different scenarios, indicating a high level of uncertainty caused by geopolitical shocks. The report pointed out that while damages to oil and gas production and exports are the main sources of impact, non-energy sectors such as manufacturing, tourism, and logistics are also experiencing significant setbacks, further dragging down overall economic activities. The current conflict began on February 28, initiated by a joint US-Israel action, which was followed by Iranian retaliation that affected critical energy facilities in Gulf countries, including important assets like the Qatari Ras Laffan liquefied natural gas plant. The IMF believes that the current impacts are still evolving, and future trends will depend heavily on whether ceasefire agreements can be maintained and whether regional stability can be restored.