Overnight US stocks | Nasdaq and S&P 500 indexes hit new highs following the US-Iran war for the first time. Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) rose by 7.6%.

On Wednesday, the three major indices closed with mixed results. The Nasdaq continued to rise for the 11th consecutive trading day and reached a new all-time high, while the S&P 500 also hit a new record high, marking the first new high since the US-Iran war. Market expectations of easing tensions in the war and strong profit forecasts attracted investors back to risk assets. As the GEO Group Inc political crisis continues, reaching new highs signals a change in market risk pricing, with traders seemingly more willing to factor in lower upgrade risks in the short term. When the conflict broke out last month, the stock market plunged significantly, the oil market experienced historic shocks, and concerns about inflation and US interest rate prospects resurfaced. Since the conflict erupted on February 28, the S&P 500 index has fallen by as much as 9%, but has not yet met the criteria for a "technical correction," while the Nasdaq and Dow Jones indices have both confirmed entering the adjustment range. The market is also supported by positive corporate profit prospects. Senior executives at large banks have indicated that despite the oil price shock, American consumers remain resilient, and there are plenty of merger and IPO projects in the pipeline. [US stocks] At the close, the Dow Jones fell 72.27 points, a decrease of 0.15%, to 48,463.72 points; the Nasdaq rose 376.93 points, an increase of 1.59%, to 24,016.02 points; the S&P 500 rose 55.57 points, an increase of 0.80%, to 7,022.95 points. Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) rose 7.6%, Apple Inc. (AAPL.US) rose nearly 3%, and SanDisk (SNDK.US) fell 5.5%. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose 0.7%, and Netease Inc Sponsored ADR (NTES.US) rose 2%. [European stocks] The Germany DAX30 index rose 35.34 points, a increase of 0.15%, to 24,069.63 points; the UK FTSE 100 index fell 50.71 points, a decrease of 0.48%, to 10,558.35 points; the French CAC40 index fell 53.29 points, a decrease of 0.64%, to 8,274.57 points; the Euro Stoxx 50 index fell 43.11 points, a decrease of 0.72%, to 5,941.40 points; the Spain IBEX35 index fell 95.36 points, a decrease of 0.52%, to 18,190.74 points; the Italy FTSE MIB index fell 8.15 points, a decrease of 0.02%, to 48,167.50 points. [Asian stocks] The Nikkei 225 index rose 0.44%, and the South Korea KOSPI index rose 2.07%. [Cryptocurrency] Bitcoin rose more than 1.1%, to $74,852.01. Ethereum rose more than 2%, to $2,367.01. [Oil] Light crude oil futures prices for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 1 cent to close at $91.29 per barrel, an increase of 0.01%; London Brent crude oil futures prices for May delivery rose 14 cents to close at $94.93 per barrel, an increase of 0.15%. [US dollar index] The US dollar index, which measures the dollar against six major currencies, fell 0.07% on the day to close at 98.056 in the forex market. At the close of the New York forex market, 1 euro exchanged for $1.1800, higher than $1.1795 the previous trading day; 1 pound exchanged for $1.3572, higher than $1.3568 the previous trading day. 1 dollar exchanged for 159.03 yen, higher than 158.82 the previous trading day; 1 dollar exchanged for 0.7819 Swiss francs, higher than 0.7810 the previous trading day; 1 dollar exchanged for 1.3729 Canadian dollars, lower than 1.3776 the previous trading day; 1 dollar exchanged for 9.1580 Swedish krona, lower than 9.1810 the previous trading day. [Precious metals] Spot gold fell by 1.02% to $4,791.24 per ounce. Spot silver remained relatively stable, at $78.986 per ounce. [Macro news] Fed Beige Book: War Increases Uncertainty, US Companies Adopt Wait-and-See Attitude. The Federal Reserve stated in its Beige Book that economic activity in the majority of regions in the US continued to grow at a moderate to slight pace amid new uncertainty and rising energy costs caused by the Iran war. The report highlighted that overall price increases remain moderate, but energy and fuel costs have risen significantly in all 12 Federal Reserve districts. The conflict in the Middle East is seen as a major source of uncertainty, complicating decisions on hiring, pricing, and capital investment for businesses, with many companies taking a wait-and-see approach. The report compiled by the New York Fed reflected preliminary impacts of the war on the US economy as of April 6. The conflict-induced oil price shock has driven up gasoline prices, leading to the largest inflation increase since 2022 in March. Several Fed policymakers have signaled a preference to maintain stable interest rates for an extended period to assess economic data. Fed's Moulton: Need to Maintain Interest Rates Unchanged for Some Time. Fed's Moulton said on Wednesday that high oil prices might cause the core inflation rate for the remainder of the year to be nearly one percentage point above the Fed's 2% target, and the Fed might need to keep interest rates unchanged. Moulton stated that "we are likely to see some transmission of the rise in oil prices to core inflation" by the end of the year, with the core indicator of rising prices expected to be "slightly below 3%, maybe around 3%," with further upside risks. Moulton said the Fed might maintain its policy rate within the current range of 3.50% to 3.75% for "some time," while keeping an eye on inflation, employment, and economic data over the coming months, a view shared by many of his colleagues. The impact of last year's tariff hike is likely to dissipate gradually this quarter, and housing price inflation is also easing. As oil prices rise, inflation rates in several service sectors remain high, and if inflation rates start to rise and potentially drive up inflation expectations, he would adopt an open stance toward rate hikes. Moulton also noted that the oil market is facing a "third negative supply shock" in 12 months, along with rising tariff rates and stricter immigration rules, posing risks to inflation prospects and the job market, which could impact economic growth. He believes that economic growth will slow down this year but remain within the range of 1.5% to 2%. Yellen: Optimistic About Gasoline Prices Falling Back to $3 per Gallon in Summer. US Treasury Secretary Yellen said he is optimistic about gasoline prices falling back to $3 per gallon during the peak summer travel season. "I'm optimistic that between June 20 and September 20, we could see gasoline prices back down to $3 a gallon," Yellen said during a White House press conference on Wednesday. Data from the American Automobile Association showed that the average gasoline price this week is $4.108 per gallon, a significant increase from the level of less than $3 at the beginning of the year. Yellen stated that the price decline will depend on progress in negotiations to end the war in the coming days. He also said that he had meetings with several Middle Eastern officials during the IMF and World Bank spring meetings this week, and "they are all saying that as soon as the Strait opens up again, they can resume oil shipments within a week." Report: Iran Proposes Allowing Free Passage of Ships on Oman Side of Hormuz Strait. According to a source familiar with Tehran's position, Iran may consider allowing ships to freely navigate on the Oman side of the Hormuz Strait without facing attack risks if an agreement can be reached to avoid a conflict resumption. This concept has been included in its negotiation proposal. Iran will continue to control its waters in the Strait of Hormuz, while Oman will decide on affairs on its side of the waters. The source did not specify whether Iran would agree to remove any mines it may have set in the area or whether all ships (including those associated with Israel) would be allowed to pass freely. The proposal is contingent on whether Washington is prepared to meet Tehran's demands, a key condition for any breakthrough on the Hormuz Strait issue. Report: ECB Cautious on Rate Hike This Month. Four sources have stated that European Central Bank policymakers are cautious about hiking rates as early as this month, as there is no clear evidence yet that inflation shocks driven by energy are spreading to broader areas or becoming firmly entrenched. They stated that the "second-round effects" of inflation could still occur, and policy tightening remains on the agenda, but specific evidence is needed before action is taken. One source stated, "Long-term inflation expectations have not risen, domestic inflation is slowing down, and rising gasoline prices are squeezing disposable income, which actually limits businesses' ability to raise prices." The source added, "I can't tell you what we will do on April 30, but so far, I haven't seen the evidence to support a rate hike." The sources also stated that the labor market is relatively weak, limiting workers' ability to demand higher wages. The market currently estimates a rate hike probability of only one-fifth in April, but has fully priced in a rate hike in June and expects another hike in the fall. [Stock News] Alphabet (GOOG.US, GOOGL.US) Expected to Receive Unexpected Windfall of Billions from SpaceX Investment. A recent disclosure filing shows that Alphabet Inc. Class C, the parent company of Alphabet, could receive returns of several hundred billion dollars from its early investment in SpaceX. According to a disclosure filed by SpaceX in Alaska this week, Alphabet Inc. Class C will hold a 6.11% stake in the company by the end of 2025. With SpaceX planning to achieve a valuation of $2 trillion or higher through an IPO, the value of this stake will reach $122 billion. However, following the merger of SpaceX with xAI in February this year, the stake of Alphabet Inc. Class C has been diluted, with its current stake estimated to be around 5%, valued at approximately $100 billion based on a $2 trillion valuation. In this disclosure, only Alphabet Inc. Class C and Musk (with a stake of about 40%) need to disclose their holdings, but several other individuals and institutions are also expected to make tens of billions of dollars in profits from the IPO. Alphabet Inc. Class C first invested in SpaceX in 2015, participating in a $1 billion round of fundraising with Fidelity Investments, collectively acquiring approximately 10% of the company.