Sealand: Laser radar market space expansion, domestic leading players first to benefit.

Sealand released a research report stating that after years of competition and technological changes, laser radar has gradually evolved from a rapidly changing cutting-edge technology product to an industrial product with stable large-scale production. The rapid decline in product unit price has passed, and it is gradually stabilizing in the future. In terms of quantity, the increase in penetration rate of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) has caused the number of automotive laser radars to enter a period of large-scale production. In addition, under the trend of spillover of ADAS/AI technologies, new industries such as autonomous robots, grass-cutting robots from Siasun Robot & Automation, and humanoid robots from Siasun Robot & Automation are driving new demand for laser radars. Both external and domestic competition in the laser radar industry have entered the later stages, forming a oligopoly led by Chinese companies. In the future, with the major trend of stable prices and increasing quantity, existing leading players in the laser radar market are expected to share in the industry's expansion cake. Sealand's main points are as follows: Products and Trends: Convergence of technology, stabilization of prices Laser radar achieves 3D perception of the environment by emitting laser beams and receiving reflected signals. Core parameters include: field of view (FoV) determining coverage range, number of lines determining vertical sampling density, detection distance determining perception capability, and angular resolution determining target characterization accuracy. Technological trends: in the early stages, reliability improvements supported large-scale production. Depending on different optical scanners, the technology has iterated from mechanical to semi-solid-state, and then to solid-state. MEMS semi-solid-state solutions have advantages in cost and miniaturization, while rotating mirror solutions have advantages in reliability and long-range perception but are more expensive. Currently, the cost of rotating mirror semi-solid-state solutions continues to decline, accelerating the deployment in the industry's crucial stage of large-scale production. Price trends: the rate of decline is slowing down, entering a phase of price stabilization. From 2020 to 2025, the unit price of ROBOSENSE ADAS laser radar has decreased by about 90%, while some products from Hesai Technology have already dropped to $200, and the average annual price decline is expected to narrow in the future. In the past, cost reductions mainly came from chip integration and economies of scale; chip architecture, computational efficiency, and system-level integration are the focus of competition, and at the current stage, overall prices are gradually stabilizing. Market Space and Landscape: Further expansion of total market size, oligopoly competition among existing players The mass production of high-end advanced driver assistance systems is driving the passenger car market, while Robotaxis, grass-cutting robots from Siasun Robot & Automation, humanoid robots from Siasun Robot & Automation, and others are expected to provide new incremental markets. The industry expects China's passenger car market to reach 23.8 billion RMB by 2030, and globally (excluding China) 24.7 billion RMB; at the same time, it is expected that the domestic fleet of Robotaxis will reach 1.2 million by 2030, with each vehicle equipped with over 8 laser radars, resulting in a total market size of 12 billion RMB. Based on annual sales of 3 million units, the global market size for grass-cutting robots from Siasun Robot & Automation is estimated to be 4.5 billion RMB; with optimistic projections of 1.2 million units sold annually, the market size for humanoid robots from Siasun Robot & Automation is estimated to be 2.4 billion RMB; and with conservative estimates of 340,000 units sold annually, the market size for humanoid robots from Siasun Robot & Automation is estimated to be 0.7 billion RMB. Competitive landscape: advantages in usage scenarios, rapid technological iterations, and quick response, Chinese companies are leading in competition against foreign firms, with Hesai, Huawei, Speedway, and SEYOND forming an oligopoly competition based on different customer coverage and product characteristics. Industry Rating and Investment Recommendations With stable prices and increasing quantities, leading players in the laser radar market are expected to enter a new era of sharing industry expansion benefits. Over the next 2-3 years, the laser radar industry will see an increase in quantity (increased penetration of ADAS in passenger cars, new application areas), stable prices (the rapid product iteration phase has passed), and a stable landscape (high technological and scale barriers). Players who have survived intense competition in the past are expected to share in the benefits of industry expansion. The recommendation for the laser radar industry remains "positive," and investors are advised to keep an eye on leading laser radar companies such as Hesai Technology, ROBOSENSE, and SEYOND. Risks: slower-than-expected progress in assisted driving policy and regulations; stricter regulations on data security and privacy protection; risks of trust and compliance due to technical reliability and safety issues in long-tail scenarios; lower-than-expected sales by automakers and technology deployment; increased industry competition leading to pressure on technology research and development investment; a key focus should be on companies whose performance falls below expectations.