Hormuz Strait confrontation escalates! Three oil tankers attempt to pass before Trump's "blockade order" takes effect, escalating the risk of rising oil prices.

Three oil tankers are currently attempting to navigate through the Strait of Hormuz near the Iranian coast. These are the first ships to attempt passage since the US announced the blockade of the waterway. Ship tracking data shows that the "New Future," which is not clearly associated with Iran, and the "Auroura," which is subject to US sanctions, began sailing in a northeasterly direction earlier on Monday from waters near the UAE. These two medium-sized finished oil tankers appear to be taking a route near the southern tip of Iran's Larak Island. Iran recently stated that ships attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz to the east should follow this route. Ship tracking data indicates that the "New Future," flying the flag of the Marshall Islands, currently shows its destination as Sohar Port in Oman. The ship is loaded with over 330,000 barrels of diesel, which was loaded in early April at Hamriyah Port in the UAE. The ship entered the Persian Gulf shortly before the outbreak of war in late February. The "Auroura," flying the flag of Panama, shows that there are Indian crew members on board, and this has become a common strategy for ships to display their background to indicate their identity when passing through the Strait of Hormuz. It is reported that the "New Future" has passed the bend in the strait and is sailing south towards the Gulf of Oman, while the "Auroura" is still near Larak Island, sailing at an average speed. Meanwhile, a Vietnamese-owned liquefied petroleum gas tanker flying the flag of Vietnam, the "NV Sunshine," is approaching the Strait of Hormuz from the opposite direction, apparently trying to enter the Persian Gulf. The "NV Sunshine" began sailing north from waters near Sohar in Oman late last Sunday, with its destination shown as Sharjah in the UAE. Vietnam recently stated that it is working with Iranian authorities to ensure safe passage of its ships through the Strait of Hormuz. US-Iran talks end in failure, US to blockade Iran These passage attempts are taking place just hours before the US is expected to implement a blockade around the Strait of Hormuz. After negotiations between the US and Iran failed to reach an agreement, US President Trump announced on April 12 on social media that the US Navy will begin preventing ships from entering and exiting Iranian ports through the Strait of Hormuz, and will start "destroying" the mines laid by Iran in the strait. The US Central Command stated that it will start enforcing a blockade on all maritime traffic entering and leaving Iranian ports at 10:00 am Eastern time on April 13 (10:00 pm Beijing time on April 13). The command emphasized that this operation will only focus on Iranian ports and coastal areas, while allowing international shipping vessels to continue passing through the Strait of Hormuz as long as they do not sail towards Iran. The US Central Command stated that the blockade will apply to ships of any nationality entering and leaving Iranian ports and coastal areas, including ports in the Arabian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. The command stressed that enforcement will be fair, regardless of the nationality or origin of the ships. Additionally, the Central Command made it clear that this operation does not mean a complete closure of the nearby international waters. Commercial ships heading through the Strait of Hormuz to destinations other than Iran will have free passage. A spokesperson for the Iranian Armed Forces' Hatam Anbia Central Headquarters stated on the 13th that in the face of threats, Iran will decisively implement a "permanent mechanism for controlling the Strait of Hormuz". The spokesperson said that if the security of Iran's ports in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman is threatened, then any port in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman will be unsafe. Additionally, the spokesperson stated that enemy ships currently and in the future have no right to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, while other ships will continue to be allowed passage through the strait, but must abide by the regulations of the Iranian Armed Forces. Since the end of February, when the US and Israel launched attacks on Iran, Iran has strengthened its control over the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global energy transportation route, causing a significant drop in shipping traffic in the strait compared to before the war. As the US and Iran continue to compete for control over this crucial international waterway, the movements of these ships are being closely monitored. On Monday, reports indicated that all traffic in the Strait of Hormuz had come to a halt after Trump announced the US would implement a blockade on the strait. Details show that before Trump's announcement, the number of oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz on April 11 had increased slightly, and on April 12, while there was a slight decrease in shipping traffic through the strait, it was still passable. However, after Trump's announcement of an "enforcement order," all traffic appeared to have stopped, with at least two ships that were originally leaving the strait turning back. Escalation in Strait of Hormuz standoff, oil price risks remain high Analysts are concerned that the US blockade action may escalate the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, leading to further disruptions in oil supply and a rise in international oil prices. The UK maritime analysis firm Windward stated that the US' action introduces a second layer of control over navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, with vessels facing restrictions not only from Iran but also potentially from US military actions. The strait is in a state of "controlled and unstable," with the risk of direct conflicts between state actors increasing. Furthermore, US officials and sources familiar with the matter revealed that after negotiations between the US and Iran failed to reach an agreement, Trump is considering resuming limited military strikes against Iran while enforcing the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. In response, analyst Sol Cavonek of the Australian MST Mackie warned that if the US resumes strikes against Iran, it could increase the risk of energy infrastructure in the region being targeted, with long-lasting effects even after the conflict ends. Last month, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that the scale of damage to the global energy supply chain caused by a Middle East war is unprecedented and the repair process will be lengthy. The IEA stated that the Middle East conflict has resulted in "severe or extremely severe" damage to over 40 energy facilities in nine countries, and the recovery of oil fields, refineries, and pipelines will require a considerable amount of time. This impact is equivalent to the combined effects of the two major oil crises in the 1970s and the natural gas crisis sparked by the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022. For the global energy market already facing severe supply disruptions, the only way out in the short term is the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz for navigation. However, the ongoing competition between the US and Iran over control of the strait means that normal navigation may not be restored in the short term, keeping oil prices high. At the time of writing, Brent crude oil futures rose by nearly 8% to $102.80 per barrel, while WTI crude oil futures rose by over 8% to $104.55 per barrel. Oil expert and Managing Director of Onyx Capital Group, Jorge Montepeque, warned that if the US implements a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz as planned, oil prices could skyrocket to $150 per barrel. He stated that the US blockade could potentially turn a regional conflict into a global conflict, resulting in a daily reduction of oil supply by up to 12 million barrels. Goldman Sachs stated that if the shipping in the Strait of Hormuz does not fully resume until July, international oil prices could soar once again, retesting the peak level of nearly $120 per barrel during the latest US-Iran conflict. JPMorgan Chase stated that if shipping in the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for another month, international oil prices may rise again, possibly surpassing $120 per barrel and approaching $100 per barrel on average for the full year 2026. If the closure period is longer and production in some regions is affected, oil price forecasts could be further adjusted, with Brent crude oil averaging $120 per barrel in the third quarter and around $115 in the fourth quarter. The senior analyst at the bank stated that even if the Strait of Hormuz gradually reopens for navigation, it will take several months to repair the energy infrastructure and production capacity damaged by the conflict, making it difficult for oil prices to return to the pre-conflict range of $60-70 per barrel. Additionally, considering the unpredictability of US policy and Iran's control over the strait (via toll system), the "war premium" may persist for a long time. Morgan Stanley stated that if shipping in the Strait of Hormuz only fully resumes by July, international oil prices may rise again, retesting the peak level of nearly $120 per barrel during the current US-Iran conflict.