Ceasefire difficult to resolve shipping stalemate: Strait of Hormuz still nearly blocked, more than a thousand ships stranded.

Attention, on Wednesday, the Strait of Hormuz appears to still be essentially blocked. Shipowners are trying to assess whether they can safely pass through this crucial waterway after the US and Iran declared a ceasefire overnight. Tracking data shows that since Tuesday morning, a total of 7 ships have left the area and 3 ships have entered. The average daily traffic during peacetime last year was around 135 ships. Currently, over 800 cargo ships are stranded in the Gulf, mostly waiting to leave. While shipowners and insurance groups have welcomed the ceasefire, they also warn that more details are needed to determine if safe passage is possible. Iran stated that one condition of the ceasefire is that its armed forces should coordinate the navigation of this globally vital oil route. Tehran had previously charged some carriers up to $2 million per voyage as a "transit fee." Neil Roberts, Director of Maritime and Aviation at Lloyd's Market Association, stated, "Time will tell whether this is a temporary pause or a lasting peace, but for now, it is highly unlikely that trade in and out of the Gulf will simply resume. Due to the unresolved underlying tensions, the region remains highly risky." Various types of ships are gathering on both sides of the Strait of Hormuz, near Dubai in the Persian Gulf, and at the port of Fujairah in the Gulf of Oman. Although shipowners have expressed cautious optimism in public and private, they added that it is currently unclear how navigation will operate in practice. The world's second-largest container shipping company, Maersk, stated that the ceasefire "may create passage opportunities, but has not yet provided complete maritime certainty." Japan's NYK Line said they are monitoring the situation. The shipping trade organization Bimco (whose members control nearly two-thirds of global maritime freight) also expressed caution and added that they are still awaiting details from both the US and Iran on safety navigation plans. Jacob Larsen, Chief Security and Safety Officer of the organization, said, "Leaving the Persian Gulf without prior coordination with the US and Iran will face higher risks and is not advisable." These views reflect the private discussions of shipowners with vessels in the region. Shipowners in Asia, the Middle East, and Europe have stated that they are calling insurance companies and security advisers and have vessels preparing to pass through the Strait of Hormuz on standby. The future of global commodity prices will depend on the speed at which shipping traffic returns to normal. The waterway, which carries a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG), has been essentially closed since the US launched attacks at the end of February, leading to tightened control from Iran and an unprecedented oil supply crisis. Throughout the conflict, shipowners have been refusing passage citing crew safety. Additionally, shipowners, brokers, and insurers note that there appear to be multiple versions of Iran's peace plan, leading to a lack of transparency. Iran stated that it has agreed to provide safe passage for a two-week period under coordination by its armed forces and within "technical restrictions." In contrast, US President Trump announced a "complete, immediate, and secure opening." In another social media post, he stated that the US will "assist in decongesting traffic" and "stand [guard] to ensure the flow continues smoothly," options that are unlikely to be accepted by Tehran. Jennifer Parks, Adjunct Professor at University of Western Australia's Institute for Defense and Security Studies, pointed out, "You can't restart global shipping flow in 24 hours. Shipowners, insurers, and crew need to believe that risks have actually decreased, not just paused." Data from intelligence company Kpler shows that energy transport ships make up most of the stranded fleet in the Gulf. Currently, there are 426 vessels transporting crude oil and refined oil, along with 34 LPG ships and 19 LNG ships. The rest are carrying bulk commodities or containers such as Shenzhen Agricultural Power Group and metals. Traders and shipowners are closely monitoring which ships are starting to attempt the passage through the strait in both directions and how progress is going. As of Wednesday morning, over 1000 ships are waiting on both sides of the strait, congregating around Fujairah and in the vicinity of Richayan in Dubai and the Gulf of Oman. Ship tracking data shows that since the ceasefire declaration, the first two ships attempting to leave on Wednesday morning seem to be sailing in tandem towards Iran's Larak and Qeshm islands - an area jokingly referred to by the shipping industry as the "Iranian toll booth." One of them is the "Tour 2", a US-sanctioned oil tanker flying the Iranian flag. Sailing next to this vessel is the Greek-owned bulk carrier "NJ Earth." Its navigation history records in the Persian Gulf show either false positions in concealed locations or electronic warfare interference. In the Equasis database, its shipowner NJ Earth Marine Ltd. and manager NJ Trust Marine Ltd. do not provide contact details. Former US intelligence advisor Michael Prentice said, "Watching the market's current reaction is good, but this is only the first day of a temporary ceasefire. We are likely to see the Iranian regime controlling who can pass, who they charge fees to, and who they refuse." Most of the stranded ships are carrying oil, fuel, and gas. The movements of LNG ships will be under particularly close monitoring, as no fully loaded ship has successfully passed through the strait since the war started, with recent attempts by two oil tankers ending in last-minute turnarounds. Around 20% of global LNG flow passes through the Strait of Hormuz. According to the International Maritime Organization (IMO) as of the end of March, around 20,000 civilian crew members are stranded on ships and other public and support vessels. The UN agency warned that these crew members have been facing issues such as increasingly scarce supplies, fatigue, and psychological pressure. The IMO welcomed the agreement on Wednesday. Secretary-General Kitack Lim stated, "I have been working with relevant parties to implement appropriate mechanisms to ensure ships safely pass through the Strait of Hormuz. The immediate priority now is to ensure orderly evacuation operations that ensure safe navigation."