The flames of war and mistaken killings give birth to a gold mine! Wall Street sounds the horn for the technology counterattack, as the "AI Computing Power Team" takes the lead in the charge?
Technology stocks are about to make a comeback after the valuation collapse! Goldman Sachs says technology stocks are entering an excellent investment window, with valuations lower than the overall stock market, making the technology sector increasingly attractive to investors.
The stock strategy team from the financial giant Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. stated that with global tech stock valuations falling below the MSCI global stock market index valuation levels, the tech sector is becoming increasingly attractive to investors. In a recent report on future market trends, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. shifted from a cautious stance to a bullish outlook. A research report from Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. revealed that the systematic selling pressure leading the market decline is diminishing, with high probability of "fast money" funds (funds around CTA strategies) switching from passive selling to net buying in the next month. This shift signifies that the previously suppressing mechanical selling pressure in the market is gradually turning into favorable factors supporting rebound.
Led by Peter Oppenheimer, the Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. strategy team wrote in a research report on Tuesday that the tech sector, which has seen a significant rise in recent years and is currently near historical high valuations, has recently underperformed following the political storm in the Middle East. However, after the valuation drop caused by the political conflict, the tech sector is now beginning to offer very attractive long-term investment opportunities for investors. The analysts wrote, "compared to the consistent earnings growth expected by Wall Street analysts, their valuations have fallen below the global overall stock market level."
At the beginning of this week, a research report released by the Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. trading team stated, "one of the most important market marginal changes is moving positively towards the bull market." The bullish logic from the Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. strategy team led by Oppenheimer is based on valuation and long-term allocation rationale highlighting that global tech stocks, having experienced a correction, are now cheaper and more attractive in terms of growth outlook. This systematic fund research report focuses on trading and short-term frameworks, emphasizing the likelihood of further buying by "fast money" strategies such as CTA and volatility target strategies once the rebound continues, amplifying the upward slope. Therefore, the former seems more like the view of Wall Street's "asset allocation committee" and the latter is more like the latest view from the "tactical trading desk".
Within the tech stocks, stocks directly related to AI computing infrastructure such as NVIDIA Corporation, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR, AMD, and the "AI computing supergroup" led by Broadcom Inc. are often the most sensitive, early-moving, and largest-gaining layer in the overall market and tech stock rebound logic. The core logic behind this layer is extremely "hard-core": it is directly linked to the record-breaking AI capital spending by tech giants, not merely storytelling.
According to the latest analyst expectations compiled by institutions, companies like Amazon.com, Inc., Alphabet Inc. Class C parent company Alphabet, Meta Platforms Inc., Oracle Corporation, and Microsoft Corporation are expected to reach cumulative AI-related capital spending of approximately $650 billion by 2026, with some analysts predicting total expenditure could exceed $700 billion indicating a potential over 70% year-on-year increase in AI capital expenditure.
Global tech stocks are gearing up for a new wave of growth
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. trading team has seen significant signs of bottom-buying in global stock markets at a short-term "fast money" flow level, while at the medium-to-long-term asset allocation level, the strategy team led by Oppenheimer believes that tech stocks already have very solid valuation attractiveness.
In a recent report, Oppenheimer emphasized that if the Iran war has any lasting impact on the global economy, it may also be long-term positive for the tech sector, as the cash flow in the tech industry is less sensitive to economic growth. Analysts, including Oppenheimer, emphasized that with valuations below the overall stock market, the tech industry is becoming increasingly attractive to investors.
Since October last year, the stock prices of global top tech companies have reached record highs based on unprecedented revenue and profit growth from the AI data center construction wave, a massive surge in capital inflow, and a long-term dominant position in the cutting-edge AI tech market. However, market concerns about rapid expansion of AI spending and actual AI revenue trajectory appearing elusive have led to a pullback from those highs major cloud computing companies have pledged to invest $650 billion in data centers, even possibly exceeding $700 billion. The market rotation towards cyclical investment sectors with less tight valuations has caused tech stocks to retreat from their highs.
For at least the past six months, global tech stocks have lagged behind concerns about massive capital spending and stock rotation trends have driven the relative decline in tech stock valuations and prices. Note: Data has been standardized, with percentage increases based on October 7, 2025.
"Wall Street veterans" like Yardeni and another financial giant Wells Fargo & Company also support Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.'s bullish view that the tech sector is transitioning from being a "crowded trade of overvalued stocks" to an area with "long-term allocation attractiveness". Senior strategist Ed Yardeni emphasized that although tech stocks are still being pressured by sentiment and disruptions related to the Middle East conflict in the short term, long-term funds are finding a more cost-effective window to position themselves considering earnings resilience, valuation digestion, and the long-term penetration logic of AI.
Statistical data shows that the negative catalysts of AI disrupting software businesses, along with the impact of the Iran war, have led to a 13% decline in the information technology sector of the S&P 500 index since reaching an all-time high in October last year. During this period, profit expectations in the industry accelerated, leading to a P/E ratio of 20.6, which is basically on par with the S&P 500 index's P/E ratio of 19.6.
Senior strategist Oppenheimer of Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. stated that investors are concerned about the potential long-term returns from such massive investments, as well as the disruptive impact that cutting-edge AI technologies like Claude Cowork could have on existing SaaS business models. He noted that the reliance on expanding AI computing infrastructure implies that future global economic growth is increasingly dependent on real-world tangible assets of computing power.
With investors generally expecting a significant increase in expenditures for energy supply to support the construction of ultra-large AI data centers, companies holding large tangible assets in the "old economy" have been repriced. A basket of capital-intensive "HALO" stocks compiled by Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. including almost all utilities and heavy asset manufacturing companies has risen by 11% so far this year.
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.'s recent description of the "HALO effect" in a research report does not refer to the psychological "halo effect", but rather to companies whose value is mainly derived from high-cost, long-lasting tangible assets/core equipment, facilities, infrastructure, etc. (HALO Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence, i.e., focused on heavy assets and low AI obsolescence risk). Therefore, investors believe that these companies are less likely to be rapidly replaced or "technically obsolete" by AI, and are more likely to receive a "haven premium" when AI anxiety prevails in the market dominated by "AI disrupts everything".
"These factors have opened a window of opportunity in the tech sector, where growth remains strong, but valuations have now become severely undervalued," the Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. strategists stated. Oppenheimer added that global tech stocks have consistently demonstrated strong profits and positive profit forecast revisions, while the ROE return on investment remains high.
The strongest valuation recovery line after the war confusion the "AI computing supergroup" led by NVIDIA Corporation
The financial giant Oppenheimer recently released a research report stating that NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO.US), Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR.US), and Marvell Technology, Inc. (MRVL.US) are still the top picks in the global semiconductor industry according to this investment institution. They cited a logic of oversold rebound based on "performance certainty + high beta attribute", as well as ongoing global expansion of AI spending as the core reasons for favoring these top semiconductor stocks in the long term.
Recently, several Wall Street senior analysts, including those from Oppenheimer, stated that as global stock markets enter a window of oversold rebound phase, or when there are clear signs of easing in the political situation involving the Middle East conflict, the majority of "chip sectors closely related to AI computing infrastructure", which have always possessed the attributes to outperform the market and have mostly been wronged by the market, will likely become one of the most core forces leading the market's counterattack and valuation recovery, and may even be the central engine driving a substantial rebound in the tech sector and the Nasdaq 100 index.
The "AI computing industry chain" as a niche sector has been the most sensitive and rapid responder to market rebound logic in terms of rebound trend magnitude this trend was vividly demonstrated during the risk asset rebounds on March 16 and March 31. In other words, in a scenario of "risk mitigated rebound", tech stocks closely related to AI computing infrastructure are likely to become one of the most core directions for market advances. This potential trend also suggests that sub-tracks such as profits with high visibility and those highly tied to the surge in AI capital spending, including AI GPU/ASIC, OCS switches and optical interconnects, optical modules/silicon photonics, HBM/storage, 2.5D/3D advanced packaging, and data center power supply chains, will have the highest profit elasticity in response to changes in AI capital spending and will likely be prioritized for re-investment once risk appetite returns.
As model scale, inference pathways, and multimodal/agentive-style AI workload drive the expansion of computing resources exponentially, the capital expenditure focus of tech giants is increasingly leaning towards AI computing infrastructure demanded by the AI computing boom. Global investors continue to anchor their narratives around NVIDIA Corporation, Alphabet Inc. Class C's TPU clusters, AMD's new product iterations, and AI computing cluster delivery expectations, seeing them as one of the most certain prospects in global stock markets, also indicating that investments in themes related to power, liquid cooling systems, optical interconnect supply chains, and other investments closely related to AI training/inference will follow NVIDIA Corporation, AMD, as well as Broadcom Inc., Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR, Micron, and other leaders in AI computing, despite the uncertainties surrounding the Middle East conflict involving Geo Group Inc.
According to the latest analyst expectations compiled by institutions, companies like Amazon.com, Inc., Alphabet Inc. Class C parent company Alphabet, Meta Platforms Inc., Oracle Corporation, and Microsoft Corporation are expected to reach cumulative AI-related capital spending of approximately $650 billion by 2026, with some analysts predicting total expenditure could exceed $700 billion indicating a potential over 70% year-on-year increase in AI capital expenditure. It is worth noting that these top five American super tech giants are expected to invest around $1.5 trillion from 2023 to 2026 to build immense AI computing infrastructure; in comparison, these tech giants had invested around $600 billion over the entire historical period before 2022.
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