JP Morgan warns: If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, gasoline prices in the United States could surge to $5 per gallon.

JPMorgan Chase said that if the traffic in the strategic Strait of Hormuz remains stalled in the long term due to the Iran war focus, the price of gasoline in the US could reach $5 per gallon. Analysts Joyce Chang and Natasha Kaneva wrote in a customer report, "To date, US retail gasoline prices have risen to around $4 per gallon, but if the strait remains effectively closed by mid-April, our commodity team believes there is a risk of gasoline prices exceeding $5 per gallon." The US gasoline price reaching $5 per gallon would be the highest level since June 2022, when it reached a historical high of nearly $5.02 per gallon. According to data from the American Automobile Association (AAA), the national average gasoline price on Monday climbed to nearly $4.12, up by about $0.80 from a month ago. Higher costs and taxes, limited refining capacity, and dependence on imported finished products (some of which typically come from Asia) have put significant upward pressure on gasoline prices on the US West Coast. On Monday, California gasoline prices hovered around $5.92 per gallon, while in cities like San Francisco, gasoline prices had already reached $6 per gallon. At the same time, California diesel prices hit a record high on Monday, reaching $7.68 per gallon. JPMorgan Chase analysts estimated that for every 0.10 increase in the average US regular gasoline price this year, gasoline spending will increase by $12 billion annually, offsetting much or all of the tax breaks expected from the Trump administration's "Big and Beautiful Act." "Our US economic team estimates that if the recent increase in gasoline prices continues until the end of this year, it will have about a $100 billion impact on consumer purchasing power," they added. Commodity researchers have been warning of sustained supply disruptions globally, with some smaller Asian countries reporting power outages, reduced flights, and remote learning. Following reports of Iran rejecting the latest US ceasefire proposal, US crude oil futures rose above $112 per barrel, and Brent crude futures for June delivery also rose above $109 per barrel. Meanwhile, the spot price of North Sea crude recently broke through $140 per barrel, reaching the highest level since 2008, highlighting the tight supply situation. President Trump threatened that if Iran does not reach an agreement and reopen the Strait of Hormuz by 8 pm Eastern Time on Tuesday (8 am Beijing Time on Wednesday), he will launch further strikes against Iran's bridges and infrastructure. Since the outbreak of warfare on February 28, shipping traffic on this crucial waterway has been virtually paralyzed, with about 20% of the world's oil passing through here, and Iran has stopped the passage of ships allied with the US and Israel.